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新西兰元难以在美元走弱带来的涨幅基础上继续扩大，因新西兰联储偏鸽派倾向
- 纽元/美元周三吸引部分买盘，因美元抛售抵消了新西兰疲弱的就业报告。
- 随着美国大选结果陆续公布、伊朗外交希望升温以及债券收益率下滑，美元承压。
- 中国不及预期的服务业 PMI 在美联储与纽储行预期分化之际限制现货价格涨幅。
周三亚洲时段，纽元/美元货币对获得一些积极动能，因为美元（USD）全面抛售抵消了新西兰令人失望的就业数据。现货价格目前似乎已经终结了此前连续三日的跌势，回升至 0.5580 区域；该区域是在上周新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）意外按兵不动的利率决议后触及的，不过缺乏后续买盘，令多头仍需保持谨慎。
美元指数（DXY）追踪美元兑一篮子货币的表现，跌至一个多月低点，因为美国中期选举的早期计票结果显示民主党获胜的可能性上升。这加剧了华盛顿陷入僵局的前景，推动避险资金流向美国国债并拖累债券收益率走低。除此之外，伊朗外交方面的希望也成为打压避险美元需求的另一因素，进而为纽元/美元货币对提供了不错的支撑。
与此同时，新西兰统计局公布的数据显示，2026年第三季度失业率意外升至 5.7%，创 11 年新高。更多细节显示，该报告期内新西兰就业变化为 -0.1%，低于市场预期的 0.4%，进一步巩固了纽储行的鸽派转向。此外，中国 10 月服务业 PMI 从上月的 51.6 降至 50.8，这限制了纽元（NZD）的上行空间。
与此同时，美国职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）周二显示，9 月招聘总体保持相对稳定。这再次印证了市场对美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）将在 12 月加息的押注，原因是波动较大的能源价格带来的通胀风险。美联储与纽储行政策预期的分化，反过来使交易者不愿对纽元/美元货币对进行激进看涨押注，因此在为进一步上涨布局前仍需保持谨慎。
交易者现在关注北美时段稍晚公布的美国 ADP 私营部门就业报告和 ISM 服务业 PMI，以寻求短线推动力。不过，市场焦点将放在周五备受关注的美国月度就业数据，即俗称的非农就业报告（NFP），该报告将在影响美元价格走势并推动纽元/美元货币对方面发挥关键作用。尽管如此，基本面背景表明，随后出现的任何上涨都可能遭遇抛售。
经济指标
评级狗服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）
评级狗服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）由财新智库和标准普尔全球每月发布，是衡量中国服务业商业活动的领先指标。该数据来源于对私营企业和国有企业高级管理人员的调查。调查反馈反映了本月与上月相比的变化（如有），并可以预测国内生产总值（GDP）、工业生产、就业和通胀等官方数据系列的变化趋势。该指数的范围在0到100之间，50.0的水平表示与上月没有变化。高于50的读数表明服务经济总体上在扩张，这对人民币（CNY）是一个看涨信号。与此同时，低于50的读数则表明服务提供商的活动总体上在下降，这被视为对人民币的看跌信号。
阅读更多上次发布时间: 周三 11月 04, 2026 01:45
频率: 每月
实际值: 50.8
预期值: -
前值: 51.6
来源: IHS Markit
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