- 白银在美联储鹰派加息目标 3.75%–4.00% 的压力下举步维艰,这对无收益资产造成沉重打击。
- 在关键的美国 PMI 经济数据公布前,市场已计入 12 月加息 89.2% 的概率。
- 如果油价企稳以及美伊地缘政治紧张局势缓和,降低更广泛的通胀压力,白银可能获得支撑。
白银价格(白银/美元)在前一日录得涨幅后回落,周三亚洲时段交投于每盎司 66.50 美元附近。由于美联储鹰派的货币政策前景,无收益白银面临挑战。美国央行最近将基准利率目标上调 25 个基点至 3.75%–4.00% 区间,政策制定者暗示年内还有可能再次加息。金融市场正积极计入这一路径,CME FedWatch 工具显示,12 月加息的概率接近 89.2%,交易员将注意力转向周三稍晚公布的美国初步 PMI 数据。
不过,随着油价在连续五日下跌后企稳,白银价格可能重拾涨势,这有助于缓解对更广泛通胀的担忧。油价可能面临下行压力,因为美国中东问题特使史蒂夫-威特科夫(Steve Witkoff)指出,美国在联合国大会(UNGA)期间通过调解方与伊朗代表团进行了“长时间”的间接会谈。威特科夫表示,调解方全天在双方之间来回穿梭,完成了一轮会谈,官员们希望这轮会谈能够证明具有建设性和前景。
在不断变化的地缘政治动态之外,美国总统唐纳德-特朗普表示,美国官员与伊朗特使举行了一次非常好的会晤。作为回应,德黑兰方面表示,如果美国放松军事压力并解除对伊朗港口的封锁,伊朗可能会在七天内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。
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