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白银无视美国收益率上升，尽管有美联储加息押注，仍攀升至 52 美元上方
- 尽管美国国债收益率上升且美元走强，白银周三仍上涨1.60%。
- 高于预期的美国通胀强化了市场对美联储进一步加息的预期。
- 德国商业银行和德国商业银行警告称，持续的通胀可能使货币政策保持限制性。
白银（XAG/USD）周三上涨，截至发稿时上涨1.60%，交投于52.35美元附近。尽管美国国债收益率上升且美元（USD）走强，但这项贵金属仍然走强，因为高于预期的通胀数据助长了市场对美联储（Fed）进一步加息的预期。
美国消费者物价指数（CPI）在10月份上涨0.4%，高于市场预期的0.3%，但较9月份0.6%的增幅有所放缓。剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI上涨0.3%，高于预期的0.2%，并与上月读数持平。
这些数据强化了市场对持续通胀的担忧，并促使投资者预期更激进的货币紧缩。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前已完全计入美联储12月加息的可能性，其中25个基点（bps）加息的概率为88%，更大幅度50个基点加息的概率为12%。
美联储理事克里斯托弗-沃勒此前表示，如果10月核心通胀达到0.3%或更高，则可能需要加息50个基点，而最新数据已达到这一门槛。通胀意外数据周二引发美国国债大幅抛售，推动基准10年期美债收益率一度升破5%。
德国商业银行分析师指出，核心通胀已连续三个月上涨0.3%，使其三个月年化率升至3.75%，为2024年4月以来最快增速。该行认为，这种持续性使得越来越难以将通胀压力视为暂时性的。
同样，德国商业银行经济学家警告称，潜在通胀仍然过高，且不再下降。该行预计，在经济活动具有韧性以及中东地缘政治紧张局势持续的背景下，通胀将在2026年全年保持顽固，直到2027年才可能出现宽松迹象。
与此同时，美元指数（DXY）周三上涨 0.68%，连续第二日延续反弹。较高的美债收益率和更强势的美元通常会打压白银等无收益资产。不过，贵金属的上涨表明买盘兴趣依然坚韧，尽管美联储进一步收紧政策的预期可能限制其进一步涨幅。
白银技术分析
在一小时图上，XAG/USD 交投于 52.31 美元。该贵金属维持在 200 期简单移动平均线（SMA）51.52 美元上方，但受到 100 期 SMA 52.37 美元的压制，使得短期基调在中性至略偏弱之间，价格在这些关键均线之间盘整。相对强弱指数（RSI）位于 45.93，略低于中线，暗示在近期冲高至 53.00 美元附近后，看涨动能已经减弱，目前多空双方都未显示出决定性控制。
上行方面，直接阻力位于 100 期 SMA 52.37 美元，进一步阻力位于 53.20 美元和 53.72 美元的水平位，这些位置守护着近期反弹高点。下行方面，初步支撑位于 200 期 SMA 附近的 51.52 美元，随后是 51.10 美元的水平支撑；若持续跌破这些水平，将为更深度的回调打开空间，而若守住这些位置，则 XAG/USD 将继续受限于附近均线压制下方的区间内。
（本报道的技术分析由 AI 工具协助撰写。了解更多。）
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