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中国央行5年后重启外汇存准率工具，人民币回撤逾200点
- 中国央行时隔五年上调外汇存款准备金率2个百分点至6%。
- 在岸和离岸人民币均脱离逾四年高点。
- 美国“分裂政府”或削弱美元。
中国央行重启外汇存准率工具
中国央行宣布自11月15日起将外汇存款准备金率由4%上调至6%，为2021年12月以来首次。按9月末约1.2万亿美元外币存款测算，约冻结240亿美元流动性——规模不足以改变供求格局，但通过抬高做多人民币的边际成本，为连续14个交易日的单边升值降温。
人民币中间价连续第三日调贬
中间价连续第三日调贬至6.7180，不过幅度相对有限，仍显著偏弱于市场预测，属“软引导”的延续。真正值得跟踪的是市场汇率在6.65—6.68区间的反应：在岸6.6718、离岸6.6701虽脱离周一高点，但并未回到10月中下旬6.68—6.70的中枢。市场将央行出手解读为“节奏重置”而非“方向逆转”，结汇顺差的底层力量（前三季累计结售汇顺差超3900亿美元）仍在。6.65—6.67正成为多空重新博弈的核心地带。
美伊“两天方案”能否落实仍是悬念
伊朗将“七天计划”压缩为“两天方案”：第一天美国落实伊朗条件（解冻资金、解除封锁、石油出口豁免、解除新制裁），第二天海峡开放。方案精简叠加特朗普在中期选举日否认“选举后恢复大规模打击”。但“第一天”能否出现可核实的落实信号仍是核心；若停留在口头，风险溢价仍无法消失。
美国中期选举：初步计票显示“分裂政府”概率更大
截至11月4日北京时间早上9点，美联社初步计票显示民主党在参议院以35席对31席暂时领先，但已判定席位多属铁票仓，最终控制权未定。佐治亚州民主党人Ossoff成功连任，是首个有指标意义的结果。
若民主党表现强劲、国会控制权转移，财政扩张受限、赤字压力边际缓解，美元短期面临下行风险；若选举推动美债收益率下降、政策不确定性减弱，人民币等亚洲货币可能获得支撑。
后续关注三个方面
其一，6.65—6.67区间的攻防能否形成新稳态：若在此企稳、升值放缓，说明政策力度已被认可；若结汇力量迅速推回6.65附近，则意味着工具威慑力不足。其二，美伊“第一天”是否出现可核实的解冻或豁免信号：这将决定油价走势，并通过通胀预期渠道削弱12月加息逻辑。其三，周五非农（预期+6.5万，失业率4.2%）：数据强劲将向上修复加息定价、与央行“降温”同向叠加；数据疲软则美元走弱、重新强化结汇力量，反而增加央行进一步出手的概率。
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