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25 个基点是 12 月美联储加息的全票预期 – 路透调查
路透社11月6日至10日进行的一项调查显示，受访的101位经济学家全部预计，美联储（Fed）将在12月9日加息25个基点，将目标区间上调至4.00%-4.25%。
分歧在于下一步会发生什么。101位受访者中略占多数的56位预计，12月将标志着本轮加息周期的最后一次加息。其余45位，包括超过半数受访的一线交易商，预计12月后还会至少再加息两次。
另外，37位经济学家中有29位表示，中期选举并未改变他们对中期通胀风险的看法。
美联储理事克里斯托弗-沃勒（Christopher Waller）周二表示，即便10月通胀降温，他仍将“继续支持在12月加息25个基点”。他补充称，如果月度核心CPI约为0.3%或更高，“可能需要更强硬的政策举措”，并表示在这种情况下，美联储应考虑加息半个百分点。
该调查的中值预测显示，以个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数衡量的通胀预计在未来几个季度仍将高于3%，并且最早要到2028年才会回到美联储2%的目标。预计PCE通胀在2026年平均为3.5%，2027年为2.6%，两者均略高于上月预估。
调查显示，美国第四季度经济年化增长率为2.2%，低于第三季度的3.4%。经济学家将2026年全年增长预期小幅上调至2.4%，2027年上调至2.2%。
美联储常见问题（FAQ）
“美国的货币政策是由美联储制定的。美联储有两项使命:实现物价稳定和促进充分就业。它实现这些目标的主要工具是调整利率。当物价上涨过快，通胀超过美联储2%的目标时，美联储就会提高利率，从而增加整个经济的借贷成本。这导致美元(USD)走强，因为它使美国成为对国际投资者更具吸引力的投资场所。当通货膨胀率低于2%或失业率过高时，美联储可能会降低利率以鼓励借贷，这将给美元带来压力。”
美联储每年召开八次政策会议，由联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)评估经济状况并做出货币政策决定。联邦公开市场委员会由12名美联储官员参加，其中包括7名理事会成员、纽约联邦储备银行行长，以及其余11名地区储备银行行长中的4名，这些地区储备银行行长的任期为一年，轮流担任。”
“在极端情况下，美联储可能会采取量化宽松政策(QE)。量化宽松是美联储在陷入困境的金融体系中大幅增加信贷流动的过程。这是一种非标准的政策措施，在危机或通胀极低时使用。这是美联储在2008年金融危机期间的首选武器。它涉及到美联储印刷更多的美元，并用这些美元从金融机构购买高评级债券。量化宽松通常会削弱美元。”
量化紧缩(QT)是量化宽松的反向过程，即美联储停止从金融机构购买债券，不再将其持有的到期债券的本金再投资于购买新债券。这通常对美元的价值是有利的。
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