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中国：增长反弹支撑2026年展望 – 渣打银行
渣打银行经济学家 Hunter Chan 指出，中国第三季度 GDP 环比增长 1.2%，同比增长 4.5%，受强劲出口和与人工智能相关的工业需求提振，而家庭消费仍然疲软。该行维持第四季度及 2026 年全年 GDP 增长预测分别为 4.7% 和 4.6%。同时，该行将 2026 年 CPI 预测下调至 0.9%，但预计 PPI 通胀将走高。
第三季度强劲表现支撑中期增长
"第三季度 GDP 增长同比达到强于预期的 4.5%；经季节性调整后，环比增长回升至 1.2%（第二季度为 0.9%）。强劲的出口和与人工智能相关的需求继续支撑工业生产（IP）增长。"
"得益于制造业和基础设施投资改善，固定资产投资（FAI）结束了连续六个月的环比下降。与此同时，家庭需求似乎仍然疲软，因为家庭消费支出增长落后于可支配收入增长。"
"我们维持第四季度及 2026 年全年 GDP 增长预测分别为同比 4.7% 和 4.6%。在我们看来，近期政策措施，包括首套房利息补贴计划以及动用累计未使用的地方政府债务额度，应有助于缓解增长下行风险。"
"尽管如此，我们认为，通过加快基础设施项目的财政拨付，以及清理地方政府隐性债务和拖欠款项，预算执行仍是支撑增长的关键。"
"我们将 2026 年 CPI 通胀预测下调至 0.9%，反映出能源价格传导弱于预期以及食品价格持续通缩。相比之下，全球油价和金属价格居高不下的传导效应，以及与人工智能相关投入和产品价格上升，可能推动今年 PPI 通胀升至 3%以上。"
（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并经编辑审校。了解更多。）
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