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澳元/日元价格预测：下降楔形突破使112.00成为焦点
- AUD/JPY 突破下降楔形阻力位，增强看涨前景。
- 买方目标指向 111.13，随后挑战 111.64-111.71 的 SMA 共振区。
- 若突破 112.00，下一目标将指向 112.19 的 100 日 SMA。
周一北美时段，澳元/日元（AUD/JPY）尾盘上涨 0.88%，因为该交叉盘继续交投于“下降楔形”的阻力趋势线上方，这一看涨图表形态可能为测试更高价格打开大门。截稿时，澳元/日元报 110.64，此前自当日低点（LOD）109.86 反弹。
AUD/JPY 价格预测：技术前景
价格走势表明，后市仍有进一步上行空间，初步阻力位于 111.13，即 10 月 14 日当日高点（HOD），该水平可能成为吸引点并推动澳元/日元走高，而 50 日和 200 日简单移动均线（SMA）的共振区将成为下一个关键阻力位，位于 111.64-111.71 附近。一旦突破该区域，将进一步指向 112.00 以及 112.19 的 100 日 SMA。
下行方面，澳元/日元的首个支撑位在 110.00 心理关口。若跌破这一里程碑并下探至 109.00-109.30 区间的前阻力趋势线转化而来的支撑位，则可能在预期之中。其下方是 109.00，随后是 10 月 15 日低点 108.64。
AUD/JPY 价格图表 – 日线图
日元常见问题（FAQ）
日元(JPY)是世界上交易量最大的货币之一。日元的价值大体上取决于日本经济的表现，但更具体地说，取决于日本央行(Bank of Japan)的政策、日美债券收益率之差，或交易员的风险情绪等因素。
“日本央行的任务之一是货币控制，因此它的举措对日元至关重要。日本央行有时会直接干预外汇市场，通常是为了降低日元的价值，不过由于主要贸易伙伴的政治担忧，日本央行通常不会这么做。由于日本央行和其他主要央行之间的政策分歧越来越大，日本央行在2013年至2024年期间的超宽松货币政策导致日元对主要货币贬值。最近，这种超宽松政策的逐渐退出给日元提供了一些支持。”
过去10年，日本央行坚持超宽松货币政策的立场，导致其与其它央行(尤其是与美联储(fed))的政策分歧不断扩大。这支撑了10年期美国国债和10年期日本国债之间利差的扩大，这有利于美元兑日元。日本央行在2024年决定逐步放弃超宽松政策，加上其他主要央行的降息，正在缩小这一差距。
日元通常被视为一种避险投资。这意味着，在市场紧张时期，投资者更有可能将资金投入日元，因为日元被认为具有可靠性和稳定性。动荡时期可能会使日元对其他被视为投资风险更大的货币升值。
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