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美元指数在102.00附近维持正面偏向，焦点仍在FOMC会议上
- DXY延续自三周低点以来的反弹，并连续第三天获得积极动能。
- 美联储加息押注、回升的美国国债收益率以及地缘政治风险为避险美元提供支撑。
- 在关键的为期两天的FOMC会议召开前，交易员似乎不愿激进押注美元看涨。
美元指数（DXY）跟踪美元对一篮子货币的表现，连续第三天吸引买盘，在上周四触及的三周低点基础上继续反弹。该指数在亚洲时段触及近两周高点，但未能延续涨势，目前交投于102.00附近，因交易员在备受期待的FOMC政策会议前选择观望。
美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）定于周三公布决议，市场普遍预计其将维持利率不变。因此，在缺乏更新经济预测的情况下，市场焦点将放在随附的政策声明以及美联储主席凯文-沃什（Kevin Warsh）在会后新闻发布会上的讲话上。除此之外，周四公布的重要美国宏观数据——第三季度初值GDP和个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数——也将为美联储未来政策路径提供更多线索。反过来，这一前景将对决定DXY下一阶段的方向性走势起到关键作用。
在这一关键央行事件和数据风险来临之际，美联储官员近期释放信号称，加息并无紧迫性。尽管如此，交易员仍在计入美联储12月再次提高借贷成本的概率约为80%。此外，能源价格居高不下引发的通胀担忧，支撑了美联储进一步收紧政策的前景。与此同时，美国国债收益率在近期跌至三周低点后小幅反弹，这与持续存在的地缘政治不确定性一道，为避险美元提供了支撑。这反过来表明，DXY最小阻力路径仍然是上行。
DXY 4小时图
技术分析
DXY在4小时图上维持在200周期简单移动平均线（SMA）上方的建设性看涨偏向。此外，突破101.92的23.6%斐波那契回撤位强化了短期上行基调，尽管更广泛的涨势仍受制于接近102.95的周期锚定水平，该处也是初步阻力位所在。
下行方面，若跌破已收复的101.92 23.6%斐波回撤位，可能在由101.28的38.2%回撤位和101.26的200周期SMA构成的密集结构支撑区域附近获得支撑。若进一步回调，将暴露100.77的50.0%回撤位和100.26的61.8%水平，而99.52的78.6%回撤位以及98.59区域则是在当前看涨结构失效时更远的看跌目标。
（本故事的技术分析由AI工具协助撰写。了解更多。）
下表显示了 美元 (USD) 对所列主要货币 本周的变动百分比。[货币名称]对[货币名称]最强。
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.38% | 0.20% | 0.36% | -0.24% | 0.14% | -0.07% | 0.42% | |
| EUR | -0.38% | -0.21% | -0.07% | -0.67% | -0.31% | -0.48% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.20% | 0.21% | 0.08% | -0.48% | -0.10% | -0.25% | 0.16% | |
| JPY | -0.36% | 0.07% | -0.08% | -0.55% | -0.28% | -0.40% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.24% | 0.67% | 0.48% | 0.55% | 0.31% | 0.10% | 0.63% | |
| AUD | -0.14% | 0.31% | 0.10% | 0.28% | -0.31% | -0.20% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | 0.07% | 0.48% | 0.25% | 0.40% | -0.10% | 0.20% | 0.47% | |
| CHF | -0.42% | 0.01% | -0.16% | 0.03% | -0.63% | -0.09% | -0.47% |
热图显示了主要货币相对于其他货币的百分比变化。基础货币从左列中选取，而报价货币从顶部行中选取。例如，如果您从左列选择 美元 并沿着水平线移动到 日元 ，则框中显示的百分比变化将表示 USD (基数)/ JPY (报价)。
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