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澳元在中国10月贸易顺差收窄后保持低迷
- 澳元维持跌势，因中国10月贸易顺差降至1052.8亿美元，低于前值1335.3亿美元。
- 中国10月贸易顺差收窄至7127.8亿元人民币，较前值9059.7亿元人民币大幅下降。
- 美联储加息预期升至84%，继续支撑美元兑主要货币走强。
周二亚洲时段，澳元/美元在前一日录得近1%涨幅后回落，交投于0.6920附近。由于澳元（AUD）在中国公布贸易帐数据后维持跌势，该货币对仍表现低迷。中国是澳大利亚的重要贸易伙伴。
中国国家统计局公布，10月贸易顺差从前值1335.3亿美元收窄至1052.8亿美元。市场预期为1258亿美元。出口同比（YoY）增速从36.3%放缓至35.2%，不及预期的33.5%。与此同时，进口同比从31.0%升至41.6%，高于预期的32.0%。
按人民币（CNY）计，中国10月贸易帐录得7127.8亿元人民币，较前值9059.7亿元人民币收窄。市场预期为8590亿元人民币。出口同比增长28.7%，低于9月的29.6%。不过，该国进口同比仍显著高于前值，录得34.7%，而此前为24.6%。
不过，随着华盛顿与德黑兰之间可能出现外交突破的猜测升温，避险需求减弱，美元（USD）可能面临挑战，澳元/美元或将收复失地。此外，原油价格走低，目前已跌至8月以来最低水平，也缓解了通胀压力。
美国总统唐纳德-特朗普表示，似乎没有必要对伊朗采取进一步军事打击，并称这场战争在“军事上、实际上已经结束”，同时强调应邻国要求，美国仍“枕戈待旦”，以维护地区稳定。
交易员目前将注意力转向即将公布的美国经济指标，首当其冲的是定于周二发布的10月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告。市场预计，整体CPI年率将从3.7%升至3.9%，而核心CPI预计将从2.6%小幅升至2.8%。在上周强劲的非农就业报告基础上，包括里士满联储主席托马斯-巴金（Thomas Barkin）和芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦-古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）在内的美联储官员发表鹰派言论，进一步强化了市场对更高利率的预期。根据CME美联储观察工具（FedWatch Tool），美联储在12月会议上加息的概率已飙升至84%，高于前一日的76%。
经济指标
中国贸易帐（按美元计）
中华人民共和国海关总署（General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China）公布的中国贸易帐（Trade balance）是指中国所有商品和服务进出口差额。当出口大于进口时，则收支为正(贸易盈余)；当进口大于出口时，则收支为负(贸易赤字)。此数据是中国重要的经济报告之一会对人民币产生较大影响，随着中国经济对全球经济的影响日益加大，因此该经济数据将对外汇市场产生影响。一般来说，数据高于预期则将利好人民币，反之，如数据低于预期则将利淡人民币。
阅读更多上次发布时间: 周二 11月 10, 2026 02:30
频率: 每月
实际值: $105.28十億
预期值: $125.8十億
前值: $133.53十億
来源: National Bureau of Statistics of China
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