路透调查显示,日本央行(BoJ)将在 9 月政策会议上将利率上调至 1.25%,随后在 2027 年第二季度(Q2)上调至 1.75%,较此前预期更早,原因是市场持续担忧更广泛的价格压力以及日元(JPY)疲软。
82%的经济学家表示,美日联合买入日元以遏制日元跌至 40 年低点的干预,以及美国财政部长斯科特-贝森特(Scott Bessent)对日本央行政策的评论,已“显著”或“在一定程度上”降低了加息的政治障碍。
9 月 1 日至 8 日的调查显示,68 位经济学家中除两位外均预计日本央行将在 9 月 18 日加息,高于此前调查中的 57%。超过三分之一,即 66 位经济学家中的 24 位,预计日本央行将在 10 月或 12 月再次加息至 1.50%,约为 8 月调查中的两倍。
展望今年之后,89%的分析师,即 64 位中的 57 位,认为政策利率将在明年 3 月底前至少达到 1.50%,高于上个月的 65%。约 62%的人认为,到 2027 年第二季度末,利率将至少达到 1.75%,比 8 月调查预测提前三个月。
市场反应
撰写时,美元/日元(USD/JPY)当日上涨 0.05%,报 153.60。
The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs. These documents are available here.
Any references to Australian or international shares, sectors, indices, ETFs, crypto-related stocks or other instruments are provided for market commentary and watchlist purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or adopt any investment strategy. International markets may involve additional risks, including currency fluctuations, regulatory differences, market structure differences, reduced liquidity and higher volatility. Company-specific, sector-specific and macroeconomic risks may also affect performance.
Commentary on geopolitical developments, economic data, central bank decisions, earnings, policy changes and other global or financial market events is based on information available at the time of publication and may change without notice. Such events can lead to sudden market moves, price gaps, reduced liquidity, wider spreads and increased volatility, particularly in leveraged products such as CFDs. Forward-looking statements, expectations and scenario analysis are inherently uncertain and should not be relied on as guarantees of future market behaviour or outcomes.