- 欧元/美元在日本央行引发的日元上涨背景下，美元持续承压，交易呈现正面偏向。
- 此次上涨缺乏看涨信心，交易员正密切等待欧洲央行会议和美国通胀数据。
- 建设性的技术形态表明，阻力最小的路径仍然是上行。
周三亚洲时段，欧元/美元货币对吸引了新的买盘，不过缺乏看涨信心，仍受限于本周区间内。现货价格目前交投于 1.1630 附近，日内上涨约 0.05%，因为多头选择等待欧洲央行（ECB）会议和关键的美国通胀数据。
市场普遍认为，欧洲央行将于周四加息 25 个基点（bps），这几乎已成定局，因此在通胀风险居高不下的背景下，市场焦点将转向该央行的前景展望。随后，交易员将迎来美国生产者价格指数（PPI）和消费者价格指数（CPI）的公布，分别在周四和周五，这些数据可能为美联储（Fed）的政策路径提供线索。与此同时，市场仍在押注美联储 9 月加息，这与地缘政治不确定性一道，可能支撑美元（USD），并限制欧元/美元货币对的涨幅。
从技术角度看，现货价格在 4 小时图上仍维持建设性的短期偏向，位于 1.1579 处的 200 周期指数移动均线（EMA）以及 1.1323–1.2072 上涨区间的 38.2% 斐波那契回撤位 1.1609 上方。此外，相对强弱指数（RSI）接近 58，移动平均趋同/背离（MACD）略微为正，暗示看涨动能仍在延续，但尚未进入过度拉伸区域。
与此同时，初步阻力位于 50.0% 回撤位 1.1698，随后是 61.8% 水平 1.1786，更高阻力位在 1.1912 和 1.2072 的波段高点。下行方面，直接支撑位于 38.2% 回撤位 1.1609，随后是 200 周期 EMA 1.1579。若有效跌破这些水平，将下探 23.6% 回撤位 1.1500 和 1.1323 的周期低点。
（本报道中的技术分析由 AI 工具协助撰写。了解更多。）
欧元/美元 4小时图
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