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欧元/美元价格预测：在1.1150附近走高，静待美国CPI数据
- 随着美元回调，欧元/美元进一步反弹至 1.1210 附近。
- 投资者密切等待 9 月份美国 CPI 数据。
- 预计美联储和欧洲央行将维持利率不变。
周三亚洲交易时段，欧元（EUR）延续周二的强劲反弹，兑美元（USD）升至 1.1210 附近。由于美国（US）国债收益率的涨势暂停，美元出现回调，而在 9 月份消费者物价指数（CPI）数据公布前，这一态势仍未改变，从而吸引了该主要货币对的买盘。
10 年期美国国债收益率已从近期创下的数十年高点 5.36%回落至 5.20%附近。衡量美元兑六种主要货币价值的美元指数（DXY）下跌 0.1%，至 102.10 附近。DXY 已从周一创下的年内高点 102.61 回落。
根据预估，整体 CPI 和核心 CPI 同比分别加快至 3.6%和 2.5%。法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）分析师认为，即便核心 CPI 升至 2.5%，美联储（Fed）的政策前景也将基本保持不变。
目前，CME FedWatch 工具显示，交易员确信美联储将在本月晚些时候的政策会议上维持利率不变，并将在 12 月加息。
与此同时，法国公共债务不断膨胀带来的财政风险，以及市场坚信欧洲央行（ECB）本月将维持利率不变，可能会限制欧元的上行空间。
根据路透社 10 月 5 日至 8 日进行的一项调查，73 位经济学家中有 70 位预计欧洲央行将在 10 月 29 日将存款利率维持在 2.50%。
欧元/美元技术分析
日线图上，欧元/美元交投于 1.1210，维持短期看跌倾向，因为现货价格仍低于 20 周期指数移动均线（EMA）1.1303。
该货币对继续受这一动态阻力位压制，这强化了更广泛的下行基调，而相对强弱指数（RSI）位于 32.15，徘徊在超卖区域上方不远处，暗示卖压仍占主导，但尚未完全耗尽。
上行方面，初步阻力位位于 20 周期 EMA 附近的 1.1303，若日线收盘站上该水平，将有助于缓解当前的看跌压力，并为更深度的修正反弹打开大门。下行方面，10 月 12 日低点 1.1153 是即时支撑位；若果断跌破该水平，将使该货币对进一步下探至 1.1100。
（本报道的技术分析由 AI 工具协助撰写。了解更多。）
经济指标
美国核心消费者物价指数年率
通胀或通缩趋势是通过定期汇总一篮子代表性商品和服务的价格来衡量的，并将数据以消费者物价指数（CPI）的形式呈现。CPI数据是由美国劳工统计局每月编制并发布的。同比读数将参考月份的商品价格与前一年同月的价格进行比较。剔除食品和能源的CPI排除了所谓波动较大的食品和能源成分，以提供更准确的价格压力测量。一般来说，高读数对美元（USD）是利多的，而低读数则被视为利空。
阅读更多下一次发布: 周三 10月 14, 2026 12:30
频率: 每月
预期值: 2.5%
前值: 2.4%
来源: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
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