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澳元跌向0.6900，因美联储加息预期上升
- 澳元周二回落，回吐了周一的部分涨幅，因美元重新走强。
- 美联储官员的鹰派言论强化了市场对 12 月再次加息的预期。
- 中国贸易顺差收窄给澳元带来压力，而投资者正等待关键的美国通胀数据。
周二，澳元/美元交投于 0.6905 附近，截至发稿时当日下跌 0.31%，因澳元（AUD）在周一强劲反弹后对美元（USD）回吐部分涨幅。随着市场对美联储（Fed）进一步收紧货币政策的预期升温，加之令人失望的中国贸易数据打压市场情绪，澳元继续承压。
来自中国的最新数据显示，作为澳大利亚最大贸易伙伴，中国 10 月贸易顺差从 9 月的 1335.3 亿美元收窄至 1052.8 亿美元，低于市场预期的 1258 亿美元。
尽管顺差收窄，但中国出口和进口仍保持同比扩张，表明外贸活动依然具有韧性。尽管如此，这一弱于预期的整体数据对澳元的支撑有限。
与此同时，美元受益于市场对美联储货币政策前景日益鹰派的预期。根据 CME FedWatch 工具，市场目前预计 12 月加息 25 个基点的概率约为 99%，高于一天前的 84%。
美联储理事克里斯托弗-沃勒（Christopher Waller）周二进一步强化了这些预期，他表示：“我们需要加息，以对通胀施加下行压力。”他还承认，货币政策的限制性不如此前预期那么强。
投资者现在将注意力转向周二公布的美国消费者物价指数（CPI）报告。预计 10 月整体通胀月率将上升 0.3%，低于 9 月的 0.6%，而核心 CPI 预计将上升 0.2%，低于此前的 0.3%。
强于预期的通胀数据可能会强化市场对美联储进一步收紧政策的预期，并为美元提供进一步支撑，从而可能延续澳元/美元的跌势。相反，若数据疲软，可能削弱美元，并帮助澳元收复近期部分失地。
澳元/美元技术分析
日线图上，澳元/美元报 0.6906，短期维持看跌基调，因现货价格明显位于 100 日简单移动均线（SMA）0.7028 和 200 日简单移动均线 0.7056 下方。该货币对未能重新站上这些中期均线，表明反弹目前仍受限制，而 14 日相对强弱指数（RSI）在 40 附近，暗示动能疲弱，更符合浅幅修复而非持续上升趋势。
下行方面，若未能守住 0.6894 上方，可能重新引发卖压，使近期低点 0.6855 附近暴露出来。若跌破该水平，3 月低点 0.6834 将重新成为关注焦点。若明确跌破这一支撑位，可能确认更深的看跌延伸。
（本报道的技术分析由 AI 工具协助撰写。了解更多。）
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