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澳元因美联储-澳洲联储政策分歧扩大而跌破0.6850
- 尽管市场情绪积极，澳元/美元仍下跌 0.27%，跌破 0.6850。
- 12 月美联储加息 25 个基点的概率升至 87%。
- 预计澳储行将暂停紧缩，市场已计入 2027 年降息。
周三，澳元兑美元下跌 0.27%，原因是市场参与者在澳大利亚和美国经济日程清淡之际，计入了美联储进一步收紧政策的预期。澳元/美元交投于 0.6850 下方。
美国持续通胀强化美联储加息预期，澳元/美元延续跌势
由于美国股市录得稳健涨幅，市场情绪依然积极。在外汇市场上，追踪美元兑六种货币表现的美元指数（DXY）上涨 0.67%，至 102.91，在触及 18 个月高点 102.96 后回落。
在美联储（Fed）官员周二发表鹰派言论后，美元走强。美联储理事克里斯托弗-沃勒（Christopher Waller）曾表示，如果核心 CPI 上升 0.3%，他可能会支持加息 50 个基点，而这一情形在数据公布后得到了印证。
10 月份核心通胀环比上升 0.3%，连续第三次录得这一增幅。整体 CPI 环比上升 0.4%，低于 0.6%，但高于 0.3% 的预期。
根据 CME FedWatch 工具，货币市场已计入美联储加息 25 个基点的概率为 87%，而加息 50 个基点的概率仅为 13%。
因此，澳元/美元小幅走低，市场猜测澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）已结束紧缩周期，并准备在可预见的未来维持利率不变。事实上，根据 Prime Terminal 数据，澳储行预计将在 2027 年降息 28 个基点。
接下来，澳大利亚经济日程将公布11月消费者通胀预期，10月数据为5.3%，高于9月的4.9%。
在美国，投资者正为周四公布的初请失业金人数、住房数据以及美联储讲话做准备，随后将迎来周五的生产者物价指数（PPI）。
澳元/美元价格预测：技术前景
日图显示，澳元/美元交投于0.6844，维持短期看跌倾向，因为现货价格远低于0.7028附近的一组简单移动均线（SMA），以及一系列此前的上升趋势线，这些趋势线如今已转为上方阻力。跌破最近一条上升支撑线——目前在0.6926附近转为阻力——凸显持续的下行压力，而相对强弱指数（14）约为35，表明动能疲弱但尚未超卖，说明只要价格无法重新站上这些已被跌破的结构性水平，卖方仍占据主导。
上行方面，初步阻力位于0.6926附近的前上升趋势线，其前方是0.7028附近的50日、100日和200日简单移动均线（SMA）汇合区；日收盘若能站上该区间，将有助于缓解眼前的看跌压力，并为进一步上行至0.7135以及0.7198的水平阻力打开空间。下行方面，直到长期下降趋势线转化而来的0.6343附近底部，才会出现明确的结构性支撑，因此在价格仍受上述阻力簇压制之际，该货币对仍面临进一步缓慢下跌的风险。
（本报道的技术分析由人工智能工具协助撰写。了解更多。）
下表显示了 澳元 (AUD) 对所列主要货币 今日的变动百分比。[货币名称]对[货币名称]最强。
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.68% | 0.51% | 0.57% | 0.44% | 0.32% | 0.72% | 0.93% | |
| EUR | -0.68% | -0.17% | -0.09% | -0.24% | -0.36% | 0.03% | 0.22% | |
| GBP | -0.51% | 0.17% | 0.08% | -0.09% | -0.19% | 0.20% | 0.39% | |
| JPY | -0.57% | 0.09% | -0.08% | -0.15% | -0.25% | 0.14% | 0.34% | |
| CAD | -0.44% | 0.24% | 0.09% | 0.15% | -0.09% | 0.28% | 0.47% | |
| AUD | -0.32% | 0.36% | 0.19% | 0.25% | 0.09% | 0.40% | 0.61% | |
| NZD | -0.72% | -0.03% | -0.20% | -0.14% | -0.28% | -0.40% | 0.19% | |
| CHF | -0.93% | -0.22% | -0.39% | -0.34% | -0.47% | -0.61% | -0.19% |
热图显示了主要货币相对于其他货币的百分比变化。基础货币从左列中选取，而报价货币从顶部行中选取。例如，如果您从左列选择 澳元 并沿着水平线移动到 美元 ，则框中显示的百分比变化将表示 AUD (基数)/ USD (报价)。
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