Notícias de mercado & insights
Mantenha-se à frente dos mercados com insights de especialistas, notícias e análise técnica para orientar suas decisões de negociação.
O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
The CHF has moved almost parabolically against the JPY and is almost touching 150, which would mark a 40 year first. With the Bank of Japan indicating its need to maintain current interest rate levels which are already among the lowest in the western world, the currency has been severely weakened. Statement that has come from some of its members indicate that there is no intention to adjust their Dovish policy even while the JPY continued to be smashed from pillar to post.
The CHF on the other hand been one of the stronger currencies outside of the USD as the countries, especially in recent months. With relatively low inflation and high volatility in the region the CHF has stood up well against most other currencies and been a source of stability. Therefore, the pair represents a trading opportunity by taking advantage of extremes of both a strong and weak currency.
The chart shows the pair has moved almost parabolically on the weekly timeframe. The price is currently at multi decade highs, with the 149.75 price the highest it has been since 1980. Whilst the 150 level is not a specific resistance point, it poses as a psychological level that may prove difficult to break out of.
On the daily chart, the recent break above 140 required 3 months of consolidation before it broke above the level. Since then, the breakout has largely been without any retracement or pullback. Therefore, it would not be unexpected for the price to pullback, especially as it gets closer to the 150 level.
The RSI is also supporting a pullback as it is in highly overbought territory at 80. If it does retrace then it may bounce off the recent support level at 142/143, and then rise target of 158 may become possible. If the Bank of Japan does decide to change its tune in regard to its dovish policy, then this trade does have the potential to go the other way with the JPY increasing in value very quickly, although at this stage there is nothing to indicate that this will occur.
The Kroger Company (KR) released its latest financial results for Q2 on Friday. The American grocery supermarket chain reported revenue of $34.638 billion for the quarter vs. $34.461 billion estimate. Earnings per share also beat analyst estimates at $0.90 per share vs. $0.82 per share expected. "Kroger delivered strong second quarter results propelled by our Leading with Fresh and Accelerating with Digital strategy.
We are incredibly thankful for our dedicated associates who continue to deliver a full, fresh and friendly customer experience," CEO of Kroger, Rodney McMullen said in a press release. "Our consistent performance underscores the resiliency and flexibility of our business model, which enables Kroger to thrive in many different operating environments. We are applying technology and innovation to improve freshness, grow Our Brands, and create a seamless shopping experience so our customers can get what they want, when and how they want it, with zero compromise on quality, selection and affordability." We will continue to focus on providing affordable, fresh food to our customers, investing in wages and the associate experience, and creating zero hunger, zero waste communities because when we do those things well, we deliver attractive and sustainable shareholder returns," McMullen added. The Kroger Company (KR) chart The stock price of Kroger rose by around 5% on Friday, trading at $51.07 a share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month +8.20% 3 months -0.02% Year-to-date +12.86% 1 year +19.71% Kroger price targets Credit Suisse $55 Oppenheimer $51 Guggenheim $57 Morgan Stanley $41 Deutsche Bank $53 BNP Paribas $60 The Kroger Company is the 450 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $36.27 billion. You can trade The Kroger Company (KR) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Kroger Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The United States used 30.28 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in 2021, making them the world’s largest consumer of natural gas. Natural gas consumption in the United States has two seasonal peaks, largely reflecting weather-related fluctuations in energy demand. One of the biggest consumptions of gas is industrial, residential and commercial cooling and heating systems (eia, 2022).
As the world’s largest user of natural gas transitions out of summer, will this change indicate a decrease of their natural gas consumption? Could the decrease in demand for cooling be reflected on the technical charts? On a daily timeframe, natural gas has been on a steady upward trend since the end of June, in tandem with the beginning of summer in the US (seen on the chart below).
A trendline from the beginning of that trend until now can be drawn, and we can see recently that line has been broken by a daily candlestick, closing below the trendline which can indicate a change in trend for natural gas. After the strong break below of the trendline followed by multiple bearish daily candlesticks, we can consequently expect further downside movement for natural gas, after breaking through a strong support at $8.4, in all probability with natural gas currently sitting at $7.895 we could see natural gas come down to the next support level around $7.57.
NIO Q2 results have arrived NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its unaudited second quarter financial results on Wednesday. The Chinese electric vehicle maker reported revenue of $1.538 billion for the quarter, beating analyst estimate of $1.458 billion. Loss per share reported at -$0.20 per share vs. -$0.16 loss per share expected.
William Bin Li, founder, chairman and CEO of the EV company commented on NIO’s performance in Q2: ''We delivered 25,059 vehicles in the second quarter of 2022, representing a growth of 14.4% year-over-year despite the COVID-19 related challenges. With the teams’ concerted efforts, our deliveries started to recover and achieved 10,052 and 10,677 units in July and August, respectively." "The second half of 2022 is a critical period for NIO to scale up the production and delivery of multiple new products. The ES7, our first mid-large five-seater smart electric SUV based on NIO Technology 2.0 (NT2.0), has become a new favorite of the market with its superior performance, comfort and digital experience.
We witnessed a robust order inflow for the ES7 and started its deliveries at scale in August. We also look forward to starting the mass production and delivery of the ET5 in late September. With the compelling product portfolio and well-established brand awareness, NIO will attract a broader user base and embrace robust growth in the coming quarters," Li concluded.
NIO has delivered a total of 238,626 vehicles as of August 31, 2022. The company expects deliveries of between 31,000 to 33,000 in Q3 and revenue of between $1.913 billion and $2.030 billion. NIO Inc. (NIO) chart The stock was up by around 3% at the market open in the US on Wednesday, trading at $17.88 a share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -14.66% 3 months -16.05% Year-to-date -45.99% 1 year -55.14% NIO price targets B of A Securities $26 UBS $32 Mizuho $60 Morgan Stanley $34 Barclays $34 Deutsche Bank $70 Goldman Sachs $56 NIO Inc. is the 15 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $28.62 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate Oil both fell to their lowest levels since January as fresh recession fears swept the market. Brent dropped to $87 a barrel and WTI to $81. The prices dropped following OPEC’s decision to cut the production by 100,000 barrels a day of supply from October.
In recent months with the Russian and Ukraine conflict raging, OPEC had to lift production as supply dipped. However, with the decreasing health of the global economy and a incredibly strong US dollar demand for overseas oil has dipped. Poor economic data from China and its Covid zero strategy has also pushed concerns of weaker demand.
In fact, China’s crude oil important dropped by 9.4% from a year earlier signalling the slowdown in demand. Furthermore, with the US federal reserve expected to remain hawkish until inflation is back to a sustainable level, in the short term there is little resistance in the way of the US dollar continuing to grind its way higher, further pressuring the price of oil. Whilst the current dip may provide some relief for consumers, with uncertainty from the Kremlin and Putin potentially capping their energy exports, the short term volatility will likely continue.
As it can be seen from the charts below, both WTI and Brent have broken down through their key support levels. The price may struggle to fall lower in the immediate short term and may need to consolidate in the short term before pushing lower again.
With central banks aggressively hiking interest rates to combat inflation, one specific country stands alone in maintaining a dovish stance. The country is Japan, and the consequence of the Central Bank of Japan’s ultra-dovish policy has been a massive weakening of its currency. Against almost all other currencies the JPY has been depreciating aggressively.
Specifically, the USD/JPY and the NZD/JPY are shaping as potentially trading opportunities. Both trading opportunities are largely based on a technical breakout as opposed to a pure fundamental breakout. NZD/JPY This currency pair is forming into a symmetrical triangle pattern.
Importantly the price has been contracting and the range getting smaller. This shows that the price is reaching an equilibrium point between buyers and sellers. However, at some point and the price will not be able to contract further and will have to break out either to the upside or the downside.
The general rule of a symmetrical triangle is to wait until the price breaks before taking a position because the price has not indicated if it will break upward or downward. In addition, the RSI indicates a similar pattern showing consolidation in the same type of triangle. Therefore, a break of this RSI triangle may correlate and support a break out on the actual price.
USD/JPY This pair has seen an even more extreme move upward. After pulling back to the recent support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the price has risen again and is looking to test the highs at 139.5 JPY. In order to find a new target the chat needs to be zoomed out to the monthly in order to see the next resistance point which is at 145JPY.
This would also take the price to almost 25 year highs. With more economic data to come out of the USA later this week.