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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
Natural Gas prices have had a volatile year to say the least. After finding multi decade highs on the back of geo-political volatility and record high inflation levels the price has seen an aggressive retracement. With the overall commodities market suffering a big drop as recessionary pressures have taken over and a resilient USD, Natural gas has seen a 30 per cent drop from its peak.
News about leaks in the Nord Stream 1 Pipeline and Russia's control over much of the rest of Europe's supply has seen an increase of volatility and with Europe entering winter soon and the surety of supply still on a knifes edge, the market remains volatile. Looking at the recent price action of Natural Gas, the long-term chart shows that the current price is sitting on a strong area of support at 6 USD. Not only is the price sitting on a strong area of support, the area also doubles as the 200-day average.
The weekly candle is a Doji showing indecision as buyers and sellers look to find the equilibrium price. By comparing both the RSI from the weekly and daily charts its can be observed that there is interesting divergence of patterns. On the weekly timeframe, the RSI is consolidating into a symmetrical triangle whilst the daily RSI shows a bounce off the oversold zone.
This may provide a clue as to which direction the price may go next. If the price continues to bounce off the oversold level, it may indicate a longer-term break on the weekly chart. This bounce would provide an obvious target for a reversal to the long side to the top of the range at 10 USD.
With general market volatility still quite high and commodities seeing aggressive moves, the next 6-12 months may provide some interesting trading opportunities for natural gas in both directions.
The AUD has fallen to lows not since the beginning of the Covid 19 pandemic and does not look like stopping anytime soon. With global commodity prices coming down and fears of a recession causing panic sell offs the AUD has been victim to a two-fold attack. The general recession fears push growth assets including the Australian dollar downward as investors look to put their money into safer assets.
In addition, as the USD has increased commodity prices have come down. Going forward, with presumably with recessionary fears only set to get worse globally and inflation in Europe and the UK potentially reaching 20% central banks have had no choice but to be aggressive with their monetary policy. The slowing growth has been a cause for concern as growth assets alongside the AUD have sold off.
Therefore, until there is really a peak in inflation or signs from the Federal Reserve that it intends to back off its hawkish stance, the AUD may very well continue to dive. Technical Analysis On the weekly chart the price currently in a nosedive with no obvious support in sight. The closest support in still $0.04 away at $0.60 which were the GFC lows.
If that level goes, then the next target is $0.55 which was the price during the initial stages of the Pandemic. Just as concerning is the fact that the 50-week moving average is almost ready to cross below the 200 week moving average. This is a lagging indicator that shows that the pair is very much being controlled by the sellers.
In addition, the RSI also still has room to drop further down to reach the level of the Covid 19 levels. The daily price chart confirms the analysis above and if anything shows a more systematic down trend. With both 50 day and 200 day moving averages trending down it does not bode well for a reversal any time soon.IN addition, the price has not been able to breakthrough both averages at for a significant period since June 2021.
Whilst the market can turn quickly, there is still s much fear and panic around that it is hard to see the AUD turning in the short term.
Following the previous Bitcoin analysis ( https://www.gomarkets.com/au/articles/economic-updates/bitcoin-usd-technical-analysis/ ), bitcoin continues to break below pattern after pattern, recently breaking out and re-testing a descending flag pattern on a 4h time frame as seen below: With the next major support sitting around $17,619, it won’t be a surprise if bitcoin comes down to that area. Looking at the correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum, the last 7 days of price action shows a correlation of.89, which is a positive value that indicates a positive correlation between the two. A positive correlation means that the two moves very similar to one another. [caption id="attachment_273298" align="alignnone" width="602"] (https://cryptowat.ch/correlations)[/caption] [caption id="attachment_273299" align="alignnone" width="527"] (https://cryptowat.ch/correlations)[/caption] For ETHUSD (Ethereum), making similar patterns to BTCUSD, has also recently broken out of a descending flag pattern, signalling a probable continuation of the 4h downtrend, there is a high probability of ETHUSD reaching the next major support around $1012.
The USDJPY has been one of the strongest performing currency pairs since the beginning of the year. With geopolitical volatility and record high inflation rates impacting the global economy, the strength of the USD has just continued to be on show. On the contrary, the JPY has been pillaged from pillar to post as the Bank of Japan has refused to change form its dovish stance and remain one of the few countries committed to holding interest rates low in the medium term.
The different responses The US Federal Reserve has become extremely hawkish with its monetary policy, after describing inflation as transitory only last year. After recording extremely hot CPI and Core CP figures for the last month as the yield on US government treasuries has increased and trader price in more interest rate hikes. Conversely the BOJ has continued to keep a 0.25% cap on its 10-year government bonds.
On the other hand, a weak JPY makes the cost of importing energy and food more expensive in Japan. This is especially problematic as the global energy crunch and inflation have sent the price of these goods and commodities sky rocketing. The BOJ has also continued to buy up government debt stimulating the economy which has further weakened the currency.
However, unlike, much of the rest of the world, Japan’s inflation level is still relatively low. These actions of both banks and the current economic climate has led to a situation where the USDJPY is currently at 30-year highs and only looking to go higher. The price has been going up aggressively since 2021 has been an aggressive upward trend.
Since March 2022 the price has sped up and broken through decade high levels. The BOJ has so far been unwilling to change, at least until April 2023 meaning there is little to stop the JPY continuing to fall. On the other side, with the Federal Reserve set to continue raising rates there is nothing to stop the USD from continuing to climb.
Technical Analysis In recent days the price has begun to consolidate into a flag or pennant pattern. As it can be seen on the chart, the price has reduced its range and volume as it has paused amid its push upward. A pattern like this is not unexpected and is standard of a strong upward trend.
In addition, with important economic events to come like the FOMC meeting and the shift in federal funds rate, the USD may increase its strength if the rates incur an unexpectedly increase in rates. The next target if the price does break out of the triangle is 147 and then 160. Various economic events can still play a role in either pushing the price up or down.
AutoZone Inc. (AZO) reported its fourth quarter financial results for the period ending August 27, 2022 on Monday. The largest US retailer of aftermarket automotive parts reported revenue of $5.348 billion (up by 8.9% from the same period last year) vs. $5.164 billion expected. The company reported earnings per share of $40.51 for the quarter vs. $38.51 earnings per share expected. ''Our results are a testament to our AutoZoners’ ongoing commitment to delivering exceptional customer service every day.
Our retail business performed well this quarter ending with positive same store sales on top of last year’s strong performance. And, our commercial business growth continued to be exceptionally strong at 22%. The investments we have made in both inventory availability and technology are enhancing our competitive positioning.
We are optimistic about our growth prospects heading into our new fiscal year,'' Bill Rhodes, Chairman, President and CEO of AutoZone commented on the results. During the quarter, AutoZone opened 118 new stores and closed one in the United States. As of August 27, 2022, the company had 6,943 stores within the United States (6,168), Mexico (703) and Brazil (72).
AutoZone Inc. (AZO) chart Shares of AutoZone were down by around 2% on Monday, trading at $2100.66 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -6.28% 3 months: +8.69% Year-to-date: +3.30% 1 year: +36.62% AutoZone price targets UBS: $2260 Wells Fargo: $2450 Raymond James: $2350 Goldman Sachs: $2296 Morgan Stanley: $2420 Citigroup: $2250 JP Morgan: $2200 AutoZone is the 364 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $42.20 billion. You can trade AutoZone Inc. (AZO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: AutoZone Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The NZDJPY like most currencies against the JPY has been in a strong uptrend for over 2 years. With the Central Bank of Japan remaining dovish in its monetary policy the currency has taken a beating against most other currencies and as other Central Banks have acted against rising inflation. The NZD has been able to take advantage of the JPY weakness and consolidate into a large symmetrical triangle.
The price recently broke out of the triangle to the upside before failing to push through the next resistance point at 87.350 JPY and falling back down. This was in part due to the hot inflation figures that came from the USA. With CPI and core CPI figures being higher than expected the risk on currencies like the AUD and the NZD both dropped as the market looked to move their money into safer assets.
The drop was seen most clearly against the USD in which the NZD fell to 26-month lows. New Zealand also just announced their q/q GDP figures showing very strong result with a 1.7% increase for the quarter, which was 0.7% higher than what was expected, and 1.8% higher than the prior period. The price of the NZDJPY initially spiked up on the announcement although since then it has been a tight consolidation.
Technicals As discussed above, the price failed to break above the 87.35 resistance point and subsequently sold back down. However, it has not yet breached the triangle to the downside and may just be a fake out. The RSI also mirrors the breakout with the tight consolidation of the RSI before a spike to the upside.
With the price attempting to reach decade highs a fake out/ retracement is not particularly unexpected. As shown in the chart, it is possible, the price action will retest the resistance point before breaking higher. The next resistance point after if the breakout does occur will be 90.00 JPY.
However, this area is a relatively heavy supply zones as seen on the weekly chart. The weekly chart also indicates a long term upward trending channel, which provides more support for a continuation of the upward move. Shifts in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy may negatively impact this trade.
At this stage they have been unwilling to change their dovish stance, however if they were to increase interest rates, a shift may occur and likely very quickly, therefore some caution is needed.