Notícias de mercado & insights
Mantenha-se à frente dos mercados com insights de especialistas, notícias e análise técnica para orientar suas decisões de negociação.
O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
USD was mostly firmer in Tuesday’s session as a mixed equity markets saw some slight risk-off conditions. Also support USD was rates markets shifting hawkishly (September meeting now pricing a 16% chance of a hike) ahead of Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Powell speaking on Friday. Fed member Barkin spoke but added little new, as he noted consumer spending and economic strength make it possible the US economy could reaccelerate before inflation cools.
DXY hit a high of 103.710, pushing slightly above July and last week’s high and resistance area after testing support at 103.00 earlier in the session. EUR and GBP were both lower against the USD to varying degrees, EUR was the G10 underperformer with EURUSD hitting a low of 1.0834 and EURGBP testing the bottom of its recent range and major support at 0.8500. Both EUR and GBP traders have key PMI figures to navigate today, with readings in manufacturing and services for both currencies.
AUD, NZD and JPY were all firmer against the USD, with NZD outperforming, seeing AUDNZD dip below the psychological 1.0800 level briefly. Both NZDUSD and AUDUSD managed to hold their major support levels at 0.5900 and 0.6400 respectively. With Kiwi and Aussie traders having NZ retail sales and Australian flash PMIs to look forward to today.
USDJPY dropped 146.00, trading in a range between 146.39-145.50 ahead of Japan’s preliminary PMIs, JPY supported by a double top and forming in USDJPY. Despite overall USD strength, with some help from a soured risk sentiment, XAUUSD attempted to retake the 1902 resistance/support level. The move however was strongly rebuked as sellers entered the market at that key level, holding XAUUSD in its 2-week range.
Todays Calendar:
USD was marginally lower in Tuesdays session, trading in a tight range amid thin newsflow and market participants awaiting the key June CPI reading released later today. After breaking the psychological 102 level in Mondays session, DXY tested a re-entry into the range but found the previous support at 102 acting as stiff resistance, seeing DXY finish at the session lows around 101.65. NZD was the G10 underperformer with NZDUSD hitting a low of 0.6168 where it found support at Mondays lows as the currency traded defensively ahead of the RBNZ rate decision today.
Futures markets are expecting rates will be held at 5.5%, confirming the RBNZ as being the first developed Central Bank to reach the end of its tightening cycle. AUD was marginally firmer against the USD, after initially struggling in tandem with the Kiwi before later reversing losses on a USD pull-back. AUDNZD moving higher, back above the mid-price of it’s 2023 range.
Safe-havens, JPY and CHF, saw gains despite risk-on equity markets on some defensive positioning ahead of big data releases later in the week. USDCHF retraced from a peak of 0.8863 to a low of 0.8791 with the cross pair hitting its lowest level since January 2021. USDJPY traded between 141.46-140.17, continuing its strong down move after testing the 145 “intervention” zone last week.
USDJPY appears one of those most at risk of any upside surprises in the US CPI data given its sharp decline over recent sessions. GBPUSD saw gains with Cable breaking it’s 1.2850 resistance level, surpassing 1.2900 to a peak of 1.2934, its highest level in over a year. A strong UK Labour market figure saw futures markets re-price a 50bp hike as the favoured outcome of the BoE policy meeting on August 3 rd, driving gains in the Pound.
EUR was flat with EURUSD just about clawing back above 1.10 at the US session end amid a USD pullback, with EURUSD trading in a narrow range despite a weak German ZEW survey. CAD saw slight gains against the USD, bolstered by the continued upward momentum in crude oil with WTI crude settling at 10-week highs and seeing USDCAD break its 4h trendline. CAD traders have the BoC rate decision later today to look forward to, where after a five-month ‘pause’, the consensus looks for rates to be lifted by 25bps for the second straight meeting, taking its key rate to 5.00%
USD was higher on Thursday, with The Dollar Index bouncing back strongly from Wednesdays decline, breaking through the resistance level of 103.60 to touch on the weekly highs at the big 104 level and hitting overbought levels on the daily RSI. Market risk-off, rising yields and a lower than forecast jobless claims figure giving the USD a boost as good news is bad news for equities which in turn is good news for the USD (if that makes sense!) Looking ahead to Friday’s session, all attention will be on Fed Chair Powell speaking at Jackson Hole 14:05 GMT, we are sure to see some volatility in USD as traders look for hawkish or dovish clues from the Fed chair. AUD, NZD, and CAD all saw losses to varying degrees against the USD on broad risk-off sentiment resulting in haven flows to the USD.
CAD was the “least worst” with a rally in oil prices supporting CAD somewhat. Risk sensitive AUD and NZD were the underperformers with both AUDUSD and NZDUSD giving back all their Wednesday gains and then some. AUDUSD and NZDUSD both sliding to test their major support levels at 0.6400 and 0.5900 respectively.
Again, these will be key levels to watch as we head into Jackson Hole. EUR and JPY both also saw losses against the USD, but not as deep as the more risk sensitive cyclical currencies above. EURUSD managing to defend the psychological 1.0800 level, which was the support level set in Wednesday’s session and also the 200 Day MA level.
USDJPY held beneath 146.00, but still well above the key 145 level, rising US yields pushing this pair higher, but held back somewhat by the safe haven status of the Yen. In risk events for today and the weekend, all eyes will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium, where the main event will be comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, also on the docket will be other Fed speakers and ECB President Lagarde.
The US Dollar was firmer Thursday, continuing its bounce from extreme oversold levels, the DXY peaking at 100.97, just short of the major resistance at the big 101 figure. A much lower than expected initial jobless claims figure saw a jump in US treasury yields, propelling the USD higher with the DXY having it biggest up day since May. AUD was the G10 outperformer, holding its own against the resurgent USD and easily outperforming its peers.
A hot jobs report where employment increased 32.6k vs an expected 15.4k and an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate, saw odds of a RBA rate hike next month jump to 43%, pushing the AUD higher. NZD underperformed on general risk aversion, seeing AUDNZD push higher into the overvalued “sell zone”. JPY saw losses, with USDJPY continuing it’s bounce off the 50% fib retracement at 137.30, pushing briefly through the psychological 140 level.
USD saw highs of 140.49 before finding selling at the 50-day SMA, pulling back to find support at its previous bullish trend line. Japanese CPI was released earlier today where a reading 0f 3.3% came in right as expected, JPY traders will be eyeing next weeks pivotal BoJ meeting where tweaks to their yield curve control policy are expected. EUR and GBP saw similar losses vs the USD, EUR initially boosted by a not as weak as anticipated flash Eurozone consumer confidence figure which coincided with a miss in US existing home sales.
Though it soon reversed to the downside with EURUSD hitting a low of 1.1119, managing to hold the key 1.1100 level. GBP continued to feel the effects of a softer UK CPI reading on Wednesday, with GBPUSD testing buyers around the key 1.2850 level, after losing sight of a Fib retracement level that helped contain declines on Wednesday. Today’s economic calendar is very light ahead of pivotal Central Bank meetings next week, with the only tier one release being only UK Retail Sales.
USD rallied modestly into month end with DXY pushing to the top of its recent range to again test the big 102 resistance level. The data highlight out of the US was the Chicago PMI figure which rose from the prior 41.5 to 42.8, but missing expectations of 43.3. in FedSpeak, Governor Goolsbee added little new from the FOMC statement last week stating he is “not sure when the Fed will be done raising rates and they are making good progress but will let the data guide them” and they may or may not hike in September. EUR was weighed on by the Dollar strength with EURUSD dipping below the psychological 1.10 level early in the session before finding support at the lower trend line.
A bounce on hot inflation data and a strong GDP out of the Eurozone saw EURUSD reclaim the 1.10 level, albeit unconvincingly. Currently, markets are pricing in around a 25-30% probability of a 25bp hike in September, with the ECB being “data dependant” any and all news regarding inflation out of the EU should see an impact on EUR. JPY was markedly weaker to start the week following on from the BoJ meeting on Friday.
During the Asian session yesterday, the BoJ offered to buy an unlimited amount of JGBs at a fixed rate in an unscheduled announcement in an effort to defend their new “flexible” yield control limits, a feeling of panic at the Japanese Central Bank saw selling in JPY, with USDJPY heading above 142, looking likely to test the BoJ resolve at the “intervention” zone of 145 in the near future. AUD and NZD predominantly outperformed, with AUD bring the clear winner on more talk from China regarding future stimulus, with AUDUSD rising through and holding the big figure at 0.6700. AUD traders also positioning for the RBA policy decision due today at 14:30 AEST, markets are currently split between a hike or hold following the lower than expected Aussie CPI data last week, with futures showing a 15.5% of a hike, but economists polled have it as much closer odds so could be an exciting meeting.
Todays Calendar below:
FX WRAP USD was choppy with the US Dollar Index ending the session flat in range bound trade. Unemployment claims dropped to 239k from 250k the prior week which was in line with consensus and having little effect on the USD, though Philly Fed Manufacturing figures did have a big beat coming in at +12.0 vs an expected -9.8, which was the highest print since April 2022. This, along with stubbornly high yields and a general risk-off background, saw the USD reverse some early weakness on Yuan intervention headlines.
DXY pushing its head above the resistance at July’s highs before stalling. JPY was the G10 outperformer against the USD. USDJPY now having eight straight days printing higher highs and higher lows, its longest streak since October's BoJ intervention-driven collapse from 32-year highs.
USDJPY hit a high in APAC trading of 146.56 on weak Japanese data, before fading to hit a low of 145.62. Not a peep out of the Japanese MoF yet but desks put the recovery down to yield differentials as US Treasury yields plateaued, while a poorly received Japanese JBG bond auction saw Japanese yields spike on the 30 years. Another currency on the intervention watchlist is the Chinese Yuan.
Bloomberg reports of Chinese authorities reportedly telling state banks to escalate Yuan intervention saw USDCNH have its largest drop of the month, breaking a 5-day rally. There is also theories floating around that China is funding Yuan intervention through selling US Treasuries, which would explain US treasury weakness (keeping yields elevated), which is unusual in an equity market risk off environment. AUD and NZD were the G10 underperformers again, AUD underperforming the NZD after a big miss in the Aussie employment report, where unemployment unexpectedly rose to 3.7% and jobs fell by 14.6k vs a 15k rise expected.
AUDUSD printed a low of 0.6366, but moved higher on the back of Yuan strength as the session went on. AUDNZD recovered the losses after the Aussie jobs report to move back above the key 1.080 level. Gold again moved lower, with XAUUSD breaking key support at 1892, after a test of the 1902 resistance early in the session was forcefully rejected.
The economic calendar is very light today, with only UK retail Sales being of any significance.