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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
After a fortnight of trending north, Gold has fallen over the past 5 days. It is currently trading at around $1960, showing a slight decline of approximately 1.35% from its recent high of $1987.53. Price is currently trying to break out of the downward channel that it has been in since late last week, so something to keep an eye on going into the key economic data due out this week.
All eyes are now on the upcoming FOMC meeting, where the market is currently pointing towards a high probability (over 98%) of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday. Considering the historical inverse relationship between gold and the USD, let's explore potential reactions by Gold to the FOMC meeting: Rate Hike Scenario (USD Strengthens): If the FOMC goes ahead with the 25bps rate hike, it could lead to a strengthening of the USD. Higher interest rates tend to attract more investments into the US currency, potentially dampening demand for gold.
Consequently, gold prices might face downward pressure in this scenario. Rate Pause Scenario (USD Weakens): Conversely, if the Fed decides to maintain interest rates at 5.25% or hints at a more dovish approach, the USD could weaken. A weaker USD often prompts investors to seek refuge in gold as a hedge against currency depreciation and inflation.
As a result, gold prices could see an uptick due to increased demand. Source: CME Fedwatch tool With the markets almost entirely pricing in a 25bps hike, unless we get a surprise in the figure, volatility may stay subdued until Fed Chair Jerome Powell begins his press conference shortly after the announcement. Investors and traders will be eagerly analysing his language to see if there are any hints on future movements by the Fed.
The GBJPY has continued to climb strongly to the upside, since the end of March 2023 and currently trades just below the 183.00 price level. This move higher is driven by a combination of the weakness of the Japanese Yen and renewed strength in the British Pound. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has begun to sound warning bells regarding potentially excessive moves in the Yen, and markets are speculating about the possibility of intervention from the BoJ.
The previous intervention from the BoJ came when the USDJPY reached the 145 price level. The USDJPY currently trades along the 143.60 price level. This could indicate that further upside could be anticipated on the GBPJPY before a strong correction to the downside.
If the GBPJPY breaks above 183 the price could continue to climb towards the next key resistance level of 188.70, with the Ichimoku cloud providing strong support for the uptrend. As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is well into the overbought region, watch for a possible reversal if the BoJ intervenes, especially along the 188.70 resistance level or at the major swing high of 195.60 (last reached in June 2015)
USD was firmer on Thursday, largely due to a rally in treasury yields with the DXY tracking the 10 year yield higher to a peak of 102.470 after bouncing off the psychological 102 support level. US data was mixed with Unemployment claims and current account figures coming in worse than expected, but this was offset by a beat in Existing home sales. There was a selection of Fed speakers, with the Chair Powell headlining.
Little new was revealed with Chair Powell re-iterating the FOMC broadly feels it will be appropriate to raise rates again this year which surprised no-one. GBP was volatile after the BoE somewhat surprised markets with a larger than expected 50bp hike, going into the meeting a 25bp was the favoured outcome by economists, but a 50bp was partially priced in so not a totally unexpected move from the BoE. The bank also maintained guidance further tightening would be required if there was more evidence of persistent inflation.
Post decision GBPUSD hit a high of 1.2838 in a knee jerk reaction before reversing the move and eventually hitting lows of 1.2728 in similar price action we saw after Wednesdays hotter than expected CPI figure. GBP price action is indicating the market feels further hawkish re-pricing of BoE action is limited, with fears that the current projected path will lead to recession in the UK weighing on the Pound and Cable will struggle to breach the major resistance at 1.28. CHF was lower vs the USD after seeing weakness in the aftermath of the SNB rate decision where the SNB hiked by 25bps disappointing some market participants who were looking for a 50bp move.
The SNB did note however that additional rate hikes will be necessary. After an initial spike lower to test the 0.8900 support zone, USDCH reversed course, hitting a high of 0.8973 before finding some selling. JPY was the G10 underperformer with USDJPY printing a fresh 2023 high of 143.22 after breaching the key 142.50 level, with a CPI report coming up today, another close above this level could see a technical continuance to test the 145 level.
Recent Fed speak has also raised the issue that US treasury yields are likely to continue to rally, increasing the rate differential between US10Y and JGBs which will also be a major tailwind to get the pair to 145, which is where the BoJ's November USDJPY intervention was launched. Todays calendar of major risk events below:
A raging US equity market fuelled by soft data, a drop in treasury yields and blowout earnings from NVDA (which saw its stock price hit an all-time high) saw risk-on trading through Wednesdays session. USD was choppy on Wednesday with an initial rally in DXY, which saw it briefly pierce the major resistance at 103.60, dramatically reversing course on big misses in US Manufacturing and Services PMIs which showed the US economy contracting faster than forecast. DXY hovering just above lows of 103.30 at the close after the earlier rally (driven by EUR weakness after their own PMIs disappointed) saw a high of 103.980.
AUD and NZD were among G10 outperformers, with AUD benefitting more from the risk-on sentiment outperforming the NZD to see AUDNZD hit a 10 day high of 1.0846. Rallies in iron ore and gold prices also helping the AUD. AUDUSD continued its bounce from the 0.6400 support level to highs of 0.6482, the next key level is the big figure at 0.6500 which until recently had been major support and now likely to be the next resistance level and certainly a key level to watch.
GBP was the G10 underperformer as dire PMI readings saw the Sterling Bears in charge. Services and Manufacturing figures all sharply declined, slipping into contractionary territory. GBPUSD printed a low of 1.2616 after the figures after hitting a high of 1.2717 earlier in the session.
GBPUSD did bounce back to regain the key 1.2700 level in the US session though, recouping most of its losses on positive risk sentiment and the USD slide on its own weak PMI figures. JPY outperformed with tumbling US treasury yields saw rate differentials tighten, taking the pressure off the USDJPY. USDJPY crashed below the key “intervention” level at 145 after printing an earlier high of 145.89.
The Yen was also supported by a beat in Japanese PMI data. The next big data point for Yen watchers will be the Tokyo CPI figure released tomorrow, with the 145 level key to the next move in USDJPY. Gold blasted higher in Wednesday’s session, blowing through the 1902 resistance level and not finding any real selling until 1920, the high set back on 11 th of August.
A weak USD and more importantly catering US Treasury Yields lending a big tailwind to the precious metal. In today’s economic announcements, not much in the way of tier one releases with Jackson Hole looming on Friday. US unemployment claims being the headline.
Global markets were buffeted by a risk-off catalysts in Tuesdays session. Weak Chinese trade data, hawkish Fed-speak and a Moody’s downgrade of US regional banks saw stocks and yields tumble FX Markets USD was firmer Tuesday in a session that was firmly risk-off following the Chinese trade data and Moody’s downgrade. Later in the session we also had the Fed’s Harker who said barring any "alarming" new data by mid-September he believed "we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady", dashing traders hops of a Fed pivot anytime soon.
DXY printed a high of 102.800, falling just short of the July 3rd high of 102.84 where it found resistance just under the round 103 figure and it’s June/July trendline. Risk sensitive AUD and NZD were the G10 underperformers, with NZD performing mildly worse than its AUD counterpart. Both NZD and AUD were weighed on by the aforementioned risk-off tone and dismal Chinese trade data.
AUDUSD hit a low of 0.6497, briefly breaking the major support at the 0.65 big figure before finding some bids, 0.6500 looking to be a key level. NZDUSD bottomed out at 0.6035 ahead of the closely watched New Zealand inflationary forecasts today. EUR, CAD, and GBP were all weaker to varying degrees against the USD due to the risk-averse trading conditions and the general USD strength as opposed to anything currency specific.
USDCAD traded up to 1.3501 until paring gains as a rally in crude oil lent the CAD some support. EUR saw little reaction to the ECB June Consumer Inflation Expectations survey which downgraded the 12-month and 3-year inflation forecasts. EURUSD losing hold of the psychological 1.10 handle, hitting a low of 1.0930 before recovering modestly.
JPY weakened with USDJPY continuing its march to the 145 “intervention” zone. JPY’s haven demand offset by BoJ doubts after Japanese wage data suggested the BoJ has less scope to reduce its easy policies. USDJPY trading to a high of 143.49, testing its August highs.
Today’s calendar:
US equity markets snapped a record-breaking run of up sessions in Thursdays trading, with the Dow Jones looking set to close in the green for a 14 th straight session (for the first time since the Dow’s inception), before seeing a sell-off on rising yields after a report that the BoJ is looking to tweak their YCC at their meeting today. FX Markets USD bounced back from its post-FOMC weakness with the Dollar supported by rising US Treasury yields after beats in US GDP and employment data and the aforementioned hawkish report regarding the BoJ. US 10yr yields surged over the 4% level, an area recently that has marked the top in yields.
With Powell stressing that the Fed would be “data dependent” going forward as to rate increases the hot US data saw traders shifting hawkishly on rates, this saw the US Dollar Index surge through the 101 level, hitting 2-week highs and looking to test the major resistance at 102. Todays PCE Index figure will be another piece in the Fed puzzle, and is likely to move the USD and yields on it’s release. EUR pushed higher early in the session until the ECB meeting where the market took comments from President Lagarde as dovish, seeing EURUSD hit a low of 1.0967, breaking through the support at 1.10, holding below with 1.10 now looking like resistance..
The ECB did hike rates 25bp as expected but it was Lagarde’s comments that she does not believe that more work needs to be done, given the current data, implying future meetings could be a hike or a hold, that saw EUR moving. Later today, some key German inflation figures will be released, EUR volatility should be expected. JPY saw big gains on Thursday, with USDJPY sliding from highs of 141.31 to hit a low of 138.75 after reports in Nikkei that the BoJ are to discuss a YCC tweak at today’s pivotal monetary policy meeting.
Noted however, similar rumours have been reported on in the recent past, so really nothing new. The overreaction in JPY shows how jittery FX traders are going into today’s meeting, it is likely we’ll see some big moves in the Yen in today’s session as well, whichever way the BoJ goes. Calendar: