Notícias de mercado & insights
Mantenha-se à frente dos mercados com insights de especialistas, notícias e análise técnica para orientar suas decisões de negociação.
O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
The largest financial services company in the world, Visa Inc. (NYSE: V), released the latest earnings results for Q1 of fiscal 2024 after the market closed in Wall Street on Thursday. The US company reported revenue of $8.634 billion (up by 9% year-over-year) vs. $8.554 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $2.41 (up by 11% year-over-year) vs. $2.339 per share estimate.
Company overview Founded: 1958 Headquarters: One Market Plaza, San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 26,500 (2022) Industry: Payment cards services Key people: Ryan McInerney (CEO), Alfred F. Kelly Jr. (Executive Chairman), Oliver Jenkyn (Group President & Global Markets), Kelly Mahon Tullier (Vice Chair & CPO), Chris Suh (CFO) CEO commentary "Our 2024 fiscal year is off to a solid start. In our first quarter, net revenues grew 9% and GAAP EPS grew 20%, driven by relatively stable growth in overall payments volume and processed transactions, plus strong growth in cross-border volume.
Consumer spending remained resilient. Looking ahead, we continue to see significant opportunities across consumer payments, new flows and value added services," CEO of Visa, Ryan McInerney, said in a press release to investors. Stock reaction Shares of Visa ended Thursday up by 0.35% at $272.61 a share.
The stock dipped in the after-hours by around 3% after the latest financial results were released. Stock performance 5 day: +1.67% 1 month: +4.69% 3 months: +17.87% Year-to-date: +4.71% 1 year: +21.32% Visa stock price targets Citigroup: $306 Mizuho: $265 KeyCorp: $300 UBS Group: $305 Jefferies Financial Group: $295 BMO Capital Markets: $280 Barclays: $278 Raymond James: $287 Wedbush: $270 Oppenheimer: $252 HSBC: $266 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $293 Wells Fargo & Company: $270 Credit Suisse Group: $275 Visa Inc. is the 13th largest company in the world with a market cap of $560.26 billion. You can trade Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Visa Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) announced the latest financial results on Wednesday. The US ride-hailing company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the last 3 months of 2023. Revenue reached $9.936 billion for the quarter (up from $8.607 billion in Q4 2022) vs. $9.756 billion expected.
EPS was reported at $0.66 per share (up by 127.58% year-over-year) vs. $0.163 per share estimate. Full year revenue grew by 24% from 2022 to $137.865 billion. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) CEO commentary "2023 was an inflection point for Uber, proving that we can continue to generate strong, profitable growth at scale.
Our audiences are larger and more engaged than ever, with our platform powering an average of nearly 26 million daily trips last year," Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber said in a press release. Stock reaction Shares initially dropped by around 3% at the open on Wednesday. Shares flat towards the end of the trading day, up by 0.20% at $70.61 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: +8.14% 1 month: +13.10% 3 months: +42.60% Year-to-date: +14.64% 1 year: +91.65% Uber stock price targets Needham & Company LLC: $71 KeyCorp: $79 JMP Securities: $75 Bank of America: $73 Truist Financial: $68 Gordon Haskett: $66 Mizuho: $77 The Goldman Sachs Group: $78 BMO Capital Markets: $69 Nomura: $62 Oppenheimer: $75 Tigress Financial: $72 Wells Fargo & Company: $64 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Morgan Stanley: $62 Uber Technologies Inc. is the 89th largest company in the world with a market cap of $145.20 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
US tobacco and cigarette company Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) released the latest financial results for Q4 and 2023 full year before opening bell in the US on Thursday. The company reported revenue of $9 billion for the quarter, which was just shy of $9.008 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) fell short of analyst estimates at $1.36 vs. $1.449 per share expected.
Full year revenue and EPS reached $35.2 billion and $5.02 per share respectively. Company overview Founded: 1874 Headquarters: Stamford, Connecticut, United States Number of employees: 79,800 (2022) Industry: Tobacco Key people: André Calantzopoulos (Executive Chairman), Jacek Olczak (CEO) CEO commentary "Our business delivered a strong finish to 2023 and we achieved a number of remarkable milestones on our path to becoming a smoke-free company," Jacek Olczak, CEO of Philip Morris said after earnings. "We are entering 2024 with strong momentum, and we expect it will be another year of excellent performance underpinned by an acceleration in organic smoke-free net revenue and profit growth," Olczak added. Stock reaction Shares were down by 2.68% at the end of Thursday’s session at $88.99 a share – the lowest since October 2023.
Stock performance 5 day: -4.57% 1 month: -6.43% 3 months: -0.86% Year-to-date: -5.37% 1 year: -12.73% Philip Morris stock price targets UBS Group: $86.50 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $115 Redburn Atlantic: $95 Jefferies Financial Group: $105 Stifel Nicolaus: $114 Morgan Stanley: $113 Bank of America: $111 Barclays: $110 Citigroup: $117 Philip Morris International Inc. is the 94th largest company in the world with a market cap of $138.19 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Philip Morris International Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
On Friday, US beverage and food company PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) announced the latest financial results before the market opened. The New York based company reported revenue of $27.85 billion for Q4 2023, falling short of Wall Street analyst estimate of $28.4 billion. Revenue was down from $27.996 billion from the same period in 2022.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.78 (up by 6.5% year-over-year) vs. $1.722 per share expected. PepsiCo achieved full year revenue of $91.471 billion. Full year EPS reached $7.62 per share.
The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $1.265 per share. Company overview Founded: 1898 Headquarters: Donald M. Kendall Sculpture Gardens, Harrison, New York, U.S.
Number of employees: 315,000 (2022) Industry: Beverages, Food processing Key people: Ramon Laguarta (Chairman & CEO), Hugh Johnston (Vice Chairman & CFO) CEO commentary "We are pleased with our results for 2023 as we successfully navigated another year of elevated levels of inflation, macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical tensions and international conflicts. Our results demonstrate that the investments we have made to strengthen our business and advance our pep+ agenda are working: it’s evident in how we are innovating, operating, empowering our teams, building our brands, and competing in the marketplace," CEO of PepsiCo, Ramon Laguarta said in a statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 2.80% during Friday's session, trading at $168.99 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -1.37% 1 month: +0.81% 3 months: +1.02% Year-to-date: -0.71% 1 year: -4.30% PepsiCo stock price targets Wedbush: $195 Barclays: $179 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $176 Jefferies Financial Group: $203 DZ Bank: $187 Wells Fargo & Company: $172 Morgan Stanley: $190 Argus: $186 Royal Bank of Canada: $180 Citigroup: $180 Evercore ISI: $185 Deutsche Bank: $195 UBS Group: $205 Credit Suisse Group: $182 PepsiCo Inc. is the 47th largest company in the world with a market cap of $231.86 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: PepsiCo Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The largest steel producer company in the United States, Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE), announced the latest financial results after the market closed in Wall Street on Monday. The company achieved revenue of $7.705 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, above analyst estimate of $7.635 billion. Earnings per share was reported at $3.16, also higher than $2.921 per share expected.
Company overview Founded: 1905 Headquarters: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States Number of employees: 31,000 (2022) Industry: Steel Key people: Leon J. Topalian (President, & CEO), John H. Walker (Executive Chairman), James D.
Frias (CFO) CEO commentary "The Nucor team delivered a strong finish to 2023, which represents the third-most profitable year in our Company's history. Nucor's strategy to grow our core steelmaking capabilities and expand beyond into steel-adjacent business lines continues to deliver strong results," Leon J. Topalian, CEO of the steel company said in a press release to investors. "Over the past four years, Nucor has generated an average annual ROE of 33% and has returned approximately $9.7 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
We remain optimistic that Nucor's best days are ahead of us, with a resilient U.S. economy and steel-intensive megatrends driving increased demand for our products. With our strong balance sheet and broad array of sustainable steel solutions, we believe Nucor is unparalleled with respect to its ability to leverage these market drivers for continued growth," Topalian added. Stock reaction The stock was up by 0.88% at market close on Monday, trading at $176.64 a share – the highest since 27/12/2023.
Shares rose by around 1% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced. Stock performance 5 day: +3.12% 1 month: +0.98% 3 months: +17.99% Year-to-date: +0.98% 1 year: +5.64% Nucor stock price targets UBS Group: $210 JP Morgan & Chase: $158 Morgan Stanley: $154 Citigroup: $180 Credit Suisse Group: $167 BNP Paribas: $191 The Goldman Sachs Group: $161 Nucor Corporation is the 427th largest company in the world with a market cap of $43.14 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Nucor Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Chinese electric vehicle company, NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO), hasn’t had the best start to 2024 with the stock plummeting by 37.05% year-to-date. That’s despite the company signing battery-swap agreements with other Chinese automakers, including, Changan Automobile, Geely Group, JAC Group and Chery Automobile. Back in the December, NIO also announced a $2.2 billion investment from Abu Dhabi.
You can read more about it here. On Thursday, the company released the latest delivery numbers for January, which had a rare positive effect on the share price. NIO delivered 10,055 cars last month, which was up by 18.2% from January 2023.
The company has delivered 459,649 vehicles in total as of 31/1/2024. The EV maker is expected to announce the latest financial results for the fourth quarter on around 21/3/2024. Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) Stock reaction The stock was up by 1.60% at the end of trading day on Thursday at $5.71 a share and is currently trading at the lowest level since June 2020.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.46% 1 month: -30.96% 3 months: -26.70% Year-to-date: -37.05% 1 year: -52.26% NIO stock price targets Mizuho: $15 Deutsche Bank: $16 CLSA: $14 Sanford C. Bernstein: $8 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $10.50 Citigroup: $19.20 UBS Group: $15 Nomura: $7.50 Barclays: $8 Morgan Stanley: $12 NIO Inc. is the 1367th largest and 5th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $11.91 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap