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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
USD Dollar saw mild strength in Monday’s session, DXY trading either side of the psychological 104.00 level but again being capped to the upside by the 100-day SMA resistance. The was little in the way of a catalyst with no tier one data released, that will change today with US CPI figures released, which will help market participants and the Fed gauge the timing of the first rate cut. USDJPY was mostly flat for the second straight session, volume was low with Japan away for a holiday.
USDJPY hit a low of 148.94 but failed to stay beneath 149.00 for long as a rise in US yields dragged the pair higher and held it above the key 149 level. AUDUSD rallied through the 0.6525 resistance level, this will be a key level to watch for Aussie traders today to see if it can re-establish itself as support. NZD lagged despite hawkish RBNZ commentary where RBNZ Governor Orr said inflation is still too high, NZDUSD finding resistance at the February highs and dropping to a low of 0.6120.
This also saw AUDNZD have its biggest up day of 2024 hitting a high of 1.0650 and retracing all and then some of Fridays steep drop. Attention turns to the New Zealand inflation expectations and RBA's Kohler both on Tuesday.
USD dipped in Wednesday’s session after the CPI inspired surge on Tuesday. The US dollar index (DXY) hitting resistance at the 105 level and dropping to a low of 104.65. Reports of Fed Chair Powell downplaying Tuesday's hotter than expected CPI along with the Fed's Goolsbee stating US inflation is still consistent with the Fed's path back to target weighing somewhat on yields and the USD.
EURUSD rallied modestly, holding the key 1.07 level where it found support on Tuesday. A soft USD and beats in Q4 employment and industrial production data support the pair. Euro watchers have ECB president Lagarde testifying at the EU parliament later in the session to look forward to.
JPY saw small gains against the USD with lower UST yields across the curve benefitting the Japanese currency. Though with USDJPY still well above the “intervention” level of 150 some jawboning from Japanese officials materialised. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki saying he is closely watching FX market moves with a strong sense of urgency and currency diplomat Kanda noting he is watching FX moves and will take appropriate actions if needed on FX.
GBP was the G10 underperformer with GBPUSD setting one week lows after cooler than expected UK CPI data. The headline Y/Y maintaining a 4.0% pace, beneath the 4.2% forecast. UK GDP is ahead for Sterling traders where a contraction of -0.2% is expected.
US machine manufacturer Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) announced the latest financial results before the opening bell on Thursday. Deere achieved revenue of $10.486 billion for the three months ending 28/1/24, beating analyst estimate of $10.303 billion. Revenue was down by 8% vs. the same period year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $6.23 vs. $5.264 per share estimate. EPS decreased year-over-year by 4.88%. Net income for the quarter reached $1.75 billion.
The company cut net income forecast for fiscal year 2024 from $7.75-$8.25 billion to $7.50-$7.75 billion. Company overview Founded: 1837 Headquarters: Moline, Illinois, United States Number of employees: 82,200 (2022) Industry: Agricultural machinery, heavy equipment Key people: John C. May (Chairman, CEO & President) CEO commentary "Deere's first-quarter performance underscores the effectiveness of our Smart Industrial operating model and the dedication of our workforce, enabling improved performance across economic cycles that surpasses historical benchmarks," John C.
May, CEO of the company commented on the latest results. "Moreover, we remain committed to empowering our customers to improve their productivity and sustainability through ongoing investment in the next generation of solutions, as evidenced by our partnership on satellite communications to expand rural connectivity announced this quarter," May concluded his statement to stockholders. Stock reaction The stock fell by over 5% on Thursday. Shares were trading at around $363.36 a share – the lowest level since 12/12/23.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.49% 1 month: -4.39% 3 months: -3.68% Year-to-date: -8.81% 1 year: -9.51% Deere & Company stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $430 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $385 Canaccord Genuity Group: $375 TD Cowen: $396 Bank of America: $422.50 HSBC: $486 USB Group: $408 Credit Suisse Group: $551 Stifel Nicolaus: $460 Oppenheimer: $458 Deutsche Bank: $407 DA Davidson: $510 Citigroup: $475 BMO Capital Markets: $425 Wells Fargo & Company: $490 Deere & Company is the 147 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $101.73 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Deere & Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) released the latest earnings results for fiscal Q2 of 2024 after market close in the US on Wednesday. The US telecommunications company achieved revenue of $12.8 billion for the quarter vs. $12.706 billion. Revenue was down by 6% vs. the same period the year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.87, above Wall Street estimate of $0.836 per share. EPS was down by 1% year-over-year. Cisco announced a 3% raise on its quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share for all shareholders on record as of 4/4/24.
For fiscal Q3 of 2024, the company expects revenue in a region of $12.1 to $12.3 billion. EPS expected at between $0.84 to $0.86 per share. Company overview Founded: 1984 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 84,900 (2023) Industry: Telecommunications Key people: Chuck Robbins (CEO & Chairman) CEO commentary "We delivered a solid second quarter with strong operating leverage and capital returns," Chuck Robbins, CEO of the company said in a press release. "We continue to align our investments to future growth opportunities.
Our innovation sits at the center of an increasingly connected ecosystem and will play a critical role as our customers adopt AI and secure their organizations," Robbins concluded. Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.29% at the end of Wednesday’s session at $50.28 a share. The stock fell by around 4% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 5 day: +0.32% 1 month: -0.74% 3 months: -6.29% Year-to-date: -1.17% 1 year: +3.05% Cisco stock price targets UBS Group: $55 Melius Research: $55 DZ Bank: $50 Rosenblatt Securities: $51 Piper Sandler: $50 Oppenheimer: $54 Tigress Financial: $76 Bank of America: $60 Deutsche Bank: $58 Barclays: $53 Citigroup: $55 Morgan Stanley: $56 Jefferies Financial Group: $59.50 Evercore ISI: $63 BNP Paribas: $45 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Cisco Systems Inc. is the 54 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $203 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''.
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Cisco Systems Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
American beverage giant The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) reported the latest financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. Coca-Cola reported revenue of $10.948 billion (up by 7% year-over-year) for the last three months of 2023 vs. $10.675 billion expected. Earnings per share reached $0.49 (up by 10% year-over-year) vs. $0.489 per share estimate.
The company achieved revenue of $45.8 billion in 2023, up by 6% from 2022. EPS reached at $2.69 per share, up by 8%. Coca-Cola paid a total of $8 billion in dividends in 2023.
Company overview Founded: 1892 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 82,500 (2022) Industry: Beverage Key people: James Quincey (chairman and CEO), Brian Smith (president and COO) CEO commentary "During the year, our people and partners rose to meet new challenges, allowing us to excel globally and deliver in a dynamic world," CEO of the beverage company, James Quincey said in a statement to shareholders. "As we begin a new year, we’re confident that our all-weather strategy, powerful portfolio and harmonized system will continue to create value for our stakeholders in 2024 and for the long term," Quincey looked ahead. Stock reaction Shares were down by 0.87% on Tuesday at $59.18 a share – the lowest since 25/1/24. Stock performance 5 day: -1.55% 1 month: -1.63% 3 months: +3.35% Year-to-date: +0.14% 1 year: -0.97% Coca-Cola stock price targets Citigroup: $68 Barclays: $66 Jefferies Financial Group: $64 Morgan Stanley: $65 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Bank of America: $60 Royal Bank of Canada: $70 Wedbush: $71 HSBC: $74 Evercore ISI: $70 Deutsche Bank: $63 Wells Fargo & Company: $68 Credit Suisse Group: $70 UBS Group: $70 The Goldman Sachs Group: $62 The Coca-Cola Company is the 39 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $254.80 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Coca-Cola Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Canadian mining company Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD) reported Q4 2023 financial results before the US market opened on Wednesday. The world's second-largest gold miner achieved revenue of $3.126 billion for Q4 2023, up from $2.943 billion in Q3 2023 vs. $3.128 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $0.276, exceeding analyst estimate of $0.205.
The company announced a $0.10 per share dividend for all shareholders as of 29/2/24. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: Toronto, Ontario, Canada Number of employees: 18,421 Industry: Metals and mining Key people: John L. Thornton (Executive Chairman), Mark Bristow (President and Chief Executive Officer) CEO commentary CEO of Barrick Gold, Mark Bristow, had this to say in a letter to shareholders: ''In true Barrick fashion, we kept our focus, dealt with the challenges, progressed our long-term strategic plans and delivered on some of our key objectives.
Most significantly, we have sustained our industry-leading organic growth outlook and are still projecting a 30% increase in gold equivalent3 production by the end of this decade.'' Stock reaction The stock was down by 0.42% during the day on Wednesday after the latest results were announced, trading at $14.09 a share – lowest since 3/11/22. Stock performance 5 day: -5.73% 1 month: -9.54% 3 months: -9.83% Year-to-date: -22.19% 1 year: -18.03% Barrick Gold stock price targets Raymond James: $24 CIBC: $23 BMP Capital Markets: $27 Citigroup: $18 TD Securities: $22 Scotiabank: $25 UBS Group: $23 Jefferies Financial Group: $15 CSFB: $20 Barclays: $28 The Goldman Sachs Group: $22 Fundamental Research: $19.02 Barrick Gold Corporation is the 743 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $24.77 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Barrick Gold Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap