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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
The Kansas City Federal Reserve is set to host the 45 th Annual Symposium at Jackson Hole Lodge in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park. Some of the countries and world’s most important central bankers, economists, and academics will be meeting to discuss the biggest issues facing the global economy. The key issue on the agenda is of “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy.” All eyes will be on Jerome Powell, with the chairman of the Federal Reserve expected to speak on Thursday and provide an update on the proceedings of the conference.
At last year’s event Powell was caught out after stating that inflation was transitory, only to see it become a huge long-lasting issue. Therefore, he may try and correct this perception and portray a much more conservative attitude. There is also a view from some analysts that the Fed came across too dovish in the July meeting which led to the market rally.
At this stage the market has priced in a 75-bps increase at the September meeting, however this may change. With key inflation measures slowing somewhat, the question will be whether the fed continue its aggressive interest rate hikes or eases their policy to avoid a potential recession. The market will be hoping that Powell provides some clues for what the Fed plans to do after rates peak.
They will be hoping for clarity over whether the bank will hold the rates at the high levels for some time or lower them straight away to avoid a recession. Market participants should be weary that although Jackson Hole may provide some important context to the future rates, no official policies will be set. The conference will most likely have a relatively small impact on the market, it still has the potential to provide some volatility for both equities and currency if significant attitude shifts are expressed.
The USD is currently at 5 year highs and with some positive catalysts for the currency, it may continue to rise further if the Fed continues to be aggressive in its rate hikes.
JD.com Inc. (JD) announced its fourth-quarter earnings numbers on Thursday. The Chinese e-commerce company reported revenue of $43.422 billion (up by 23% year-over-year), slightly above Wall Street analysts forecast of $43.186 billion. Earnings per share reported at $0.35 per share vs. $0.28 per share expected. ''We are pleased to finish the year with a set of strong results on both the top and bottom lines as we continued to execute and deliver on our strategic priorities,'' said Sandy Xu, Chief Financial Officer of JD.com. ''During the quarter, we further optimized our operational efficiency through technology and innovation, increasing our competitiveness as well as our ability to support our business partners.
In 2022, we will continue to execute our business strategies and focus on sustainable high-quality growth across all of our business lines,'' Xu added. JD.com Inc. (JD) Share price of JD dropped following the latest financial results on Thursday, after the weakest revenue growth in six quarters. The stock was down by around 16% at $52.13 pe share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -31.40% 3 Month: -34.13% Year-to-date: -25.20% 1 Year: -41.77% JD.com Inc. is the 163 rd largest company in the world with total market cap of $85.95 billion. You can trade JD.com Inc. (JD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
Sources: JD.com, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap
The recent price action of the Bitcoin suggests that the leading cryptocurrency may be ready for another sell off. Since last November when the currency peaked it has seen a sharp decline with retracements along the way. With inflation and recessionary pressures prevalent short-term volatility remains high as the market determines how to price the asset.
The Jackson Hole symposium is set to begin on Thursday in the USA and may effect the price in the short term if bullish or bearish sentiment comes from the event. The Chart The long-term outlook for Bitcoin is bearish. With constant sell downs and both the 50 Day and 200 day moving average both firmly pushing towards the downside.
Furthermore, the price has not been able to sustain any significant rally and has broken through its major support at $30,000 USD. Recent Price Action The concern for BTC is that it has sold out of the channel that it had been consolidating in and has therefore rejected the upward move. Similarly, the price has followed this action, twice before with both resulting in sell offs.
These patterns appear as traps for bulls because, buyers begin to feel FOMO and then enter long only to be ‘fake out’ as sellers soak up the buying volume and then continue to push the price back down. The RSI also supports more selling as it currently sits at 38 whilst the prior sell offs reached below 20. The RSI also looks to have made a triple top as shown in the chart further indicating that sellers may be ready to drive the price down further.
The concern for buyers is that this current sell off may not be finished. The 5-hour pattern looks to be forming a bear flag/pennant. If the price can break below it may fall to the next support at $17,000/18,000 USD.
This pattern is to be expected and is just reflective of sellers taking a breath before they continue to push the price lower. The price has also fallen back below the 50-period moving average indicting short term bearish sentiment. If the short-term target of $ 17,000/18,000 USD cannot hold the next target is the $13,500 USD level.
Iron ore prices have continued to rally to a six-month high this week, due in part to reports of potential easing of China’s strict COVID-19 policy and their signs of improved steel demand. The Singapore Exchange has the iron ore futures price reaching $165 USD a tonne on Tuesday, this is the highest level since July 2021. The price increase could have been attributed to a report that concluded that Beijing was considering potentially moving away from a zero-tolerance approach to COVID-19.
If this occurs, it could potentially put an end to the stop-start nature of China’s economic activities which has been happening since the start of COVID-19 pandemic. Another report indicated that experimental opening measures could arrive in a few select cities across China as early as June, which will coincide with the beginning of their Summer. A potential sign that China’s stimulus is contributing to rebound in growth can be evident earlier this month with the release of China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
The PMI had increased to 50.2, which was greater than the economists’ consensus of 49.8. Some experts and economists believe that the PMI’s figures released next month of March will likely provide a better indication of the true state of China’s economy, given the effects of the Lunar New Year period in the first two months of the year. Iron ore supplies could also heavily affect its global price.
There are concerns about the supply disruptions caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, given their iron ore sector accounts for 100 million tonnes and 81 million tonnes a year, respectively. Heavy rain in the south-east of Brazil earlier this year, linked to the La Nina weather pattern, has forced producers to cease operations. Brazil is the second largest iron ore producer behind Australia, producing almost 400 million tonnes compared to Australia’s 900 million tonnes.
The increase in price to iron ore and energy has driven the AUD/USD to reach a new four month high of 74.41 US cents. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) believes that the currency is currently on track to end the first quarter near 74 US cents. They have updated the fair value estimate of the Australian dollar following the release of the RBA’s commodity price index for February.
CBA’s fair value for the AUD/USD ranges between 78-90 US cents, centred on 84 US cents. All in all, the AUD/USD has a healthy positive correlation with the price of iron ore due Australia being the largest producer. Investors can research the supply and demand of iron ore to achieve a good potential indication of the strength of the AUD/USD.
If you would like to take this opportunity to trade on the AUD/USD and require a trading account, you can open a trading account with GO Markets. Source: GO Markets MT5, Tradingview, Tradingeconmics, Statista, WSJ, Science.org, AFR
Gold has seen a resurgence in the past few weeks on the back of inflationary pressure and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Russia. Prior to the conflict, the price of Gold was hovering around $1,800 USD per ounce. After pushing through $2000 USD per ounce the price is now moving closer to its all-time high at $2070.
The rise in other commodities such as Oil, Gas, and Coal has also added to the rise in the price of Gold as concerns of inflation are increased, the interest in Gold usually follows. An interesting comparison can be made with regards to the increasing price of Oil. Whilst both commodities can be used as hedges against the market, Gold provides a more stable option whilst Oil is the more volatile option.
Both have seen strong rises due to the conflict and whilst Oil’s has been more meteoric, Gold has been steadier, as can be seen in the chart below. Gold has also performed extremely well against Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies during the volatility that has been caused by the conflict. There was potential for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency to provide a hedge against the market, however Bitcoin has been outperformed by Gold at this point.
Gold vs BTC vs Oil An interesting quandary to the Gold rise is the geopolitical element. For instance, Russia’s central bank purchased more Gold in 2021 than all other central banks, except for those in India and the United Arab Emirates. This means that there may be a shortfall in supply.
Technical Analysis The long-term chart has shown a long period of consolidation ultimately forming a symmetrical triangle pattern from which the price has broken out. It saw a big rise during the beginning of the pandemic and reached a maximum price of $2075 USD per ounce. When the price broke out of the triangle, initially an increase in relative volume occurred.
In addition, the retracement of the breakout was short-lived, and buying pushed the price up relatively easily. Another symmetrical triangle formed on the four-hour chart on the breakout of the breakout. Once again there was a strong increase in volume for the intimal move before it began the price began to contract again.
These continual price contractions and triangles forming may indicate that supply is being soaked up and that buying demand is present. On the four-hour time frame, it can be observed that the short sharp periods of consolidation have continued to be formed. Importantly, the consolidations have been relatively short, with in a tight range and broken with a high level of volume.
If volatility continues to be prominent and Inflation remains a threat, Gold will likely remain relevant. It will be interesting to see what happens with the price, if it is able to push through the all-time high price of $2075 per ounce.
For the last 2 years, Gold has been bouncing in a range between $1700 and $2070 and is currently testing the major support level around $1700 as seen below. The price has used the yellow highlighted as an area for support zone and a rejection zone. Over the last 2 years clear rejections have occurred every time the price has reached around $1700’s.
These candlestick rejections indicate a high probability of something similar potentially happening. We find further confluence of this analysis by looking at the weekly time frame, where Gold has broken above the trend line, and has now come back to retest it. This can often result in a bounce off the trendline, creating the start of a new uptrend.
If Gold continues to remain above the trendline and can hold the monthly support, it may indicate that it is in the early stages of a potential reversal. This may lead to another move toward the $2000’s.