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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
Qantas Airways Limited (QAN:ASX) is the flagship carrier of Australia and the country's largest airline by fleet size. The company has had a resurgence in 2022 and the share price has rebounded from the lows of the pandemic. The “Flying Kangaroo” as it’s known throughout the industry, said that it would report an underlying pre-tax profit of up to A$1.3bn (US$815mn) in the six months to December, doubling market estimates, as strong demand for flights offsets higher fuel costs and inflation.
The improved financial performance has come from the company transferring the increased costs via increased fairs. The share price for the airline soared to $5.83, its highest level since November 2021, on the back of the strong profit forecast. Qantas’s pre-pandemic share price was sitting at $7.35 AUD and saw its financial performance suffer with 3 consecutive years of more than A$1bn losses because of pandemic restrictions and lost A$25bn of revenue during the period.
Net debt, which spiralled to almost A$6.5bn during the pandemic, is expected to fall to between A$3.2bn and A$3.4bn by the end of the year, well below the airline’s A$3.9bn target range. Alan Joyce, Chief Executive gave a promising statement on the company’s performance advising, “It’s been a really challenging time for the national carrier, but today’s announcement shows how far we’ve come. Since August, we’ve seen a big improvement in our operational performance and an acceleration in our financial performance.” The report in profits has come too late for investors to receive a final dividend this year, with the company deciding not to reverse its decision to halt dividend payments.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom for investors, as Alan Joyce has led a A$400mn share buyback this year. Share buybacks do not put cash in the hands of investors as a dividend does. However, they do support shareholders by reducing the overall share count.
This tends to boost the share price, given that under the laws of supply and demand, less supply leads to a rise in price. If you are interested in venturing into trading stocks, FX or commodities, you can create access to one of our MetaTrader 5 trading CFD platforms with GO Markets here or call our Melbourne based office on 03 8566 7680 to discuss your trading goals with our account managers and to get started. Sources: https://www.ft.com/, https://au.finance.yahoo.com/, https://www.fool.com.au/
Oracle Corporation reported its fiscal 2022 third quarter financial results after the closing bell on Wall Street today. The US software and hardware manufacturer reported revenue of $10.513 billion vs. $10.506 billion expected. Earnings per share at $1.13 per share, falling short of analyst estimate of $1.18 per share.
The company also announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share of outstanding common stock "In Q3, Oracle delivered over 7% constant currency revenue growth—our highest quarterly organic revenue growth rate since we began our transition to the cloud," said Oracle CEO, Safra Catz following the latest results. "This strong top line growth was coupled with a solid non-GAAP constant currency operating profit growth of 4%, but the big story is that our overall revenue growth is being driven by both our rapidly growing Cloud Infrastructure and Cloud Applications businesses. Q3 Cloud Infrastructure revenue was up 47% in constant currency. Q3 Cloud Applications growth was led by Fusion ERP, which was up 35% in constant currency and NetSuite ERP which was up 29% in constant currency.
Total Cloud revenue which includes Cloud Infrastructure and Cloud Applications is now over $11 billion a year," Catz added. Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Shares of Oracle were little changed at the end of trading on Thursday, up by 0.84% at $76.70 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -6.22% 3 Month: -13.53% Year-to-date: -11.98% 1 Year: +13.87% Oracle is the 49 th largest company in the world with total market cap of $204.85 billion.
You can trade Oracle Corporation (ORCL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Oracle Corporation, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap
Oil has continued its tumble from its March 2022 high of $131 per barrel down to $82 a barrel. The drop has been in response to weak economic figures from China and the USA which has added to the recessionary anxiety gripping the market. Furthermore, as Iran edges closer to a nuclear deal, the removal of economic sanctions on the country may be able to provide 2.5 million barrels a day to the global supply.
The drop has also coincided with a rebound in equities as the possibility that central banks may soften their aggressive interest-raising regime has entered the market. Further industry data released from the USA outlining their Crude stockpiles due later on Tuesday, may also impact the price in the short term. The recent drop has pushed the price of both Crude and WTI to 6-month lows not seen since before the Russia and Ukraine crises.
On the daily chart, both Brent and WTI are sitting on areas of support between $85-$93 and $83-$90 respectively. The price for both Brent and WTI has also dipped below the 200-day moving average indicating a medium-term bearish shift. The question remains, is this just a retracement, or a reversal of exhaustion?
Due to the prices being resting near their area of support and the RSI consolidating between 25-45, this does indicate a possible bounce. If the RSI can break above the recent consolidation/range or 45 and the general price of the commodity can bounce off its support, there may be the potential for buying opportunities. With any trade and especially those involving commodities, there are always external risks to consider that may invalidate the current trading strategy.
For instance, if inflation becomes less of an issue and central banks begin to taper their aggressiveness in fighting inflation, the price of oil may begin to slip. Therefore, this is a trade that can in which the utilisation of both technical and fundamental analysis can be done.
NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for February on Tuesday. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 6,131 cars last month – an increase of 9.9% year-over-year. The deliveries in February consisted of: 1,084 ES8s – the company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV 3,309 ES6s – the company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV 1,738 EC6s – the company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV NIO has delivered a total of 182,853 electric vehicles as of 28 th February, 2022.
NIO Inc. (NIO) Shares of NIO were down by 4.25% at the end of the trading day on Tuesday at $21.87 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -11.96% 3 Month: -44.11% Year-to-date: -30.97% 1 Year: -49.48% NIO is the 15 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $34.78 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: NIO Inc., CompaniesMarketCap
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported it latest financial numbers before the opening bell in the US on Thursday. The pharmaceutical company reported results that beat Wall Street estimates, sending the stock price higher on the day. Total revenue reported at $7.211 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $6.798 billion expected.
Earnings per share at $11.29 per share vs. estimate of $9.96 per share. Stéphane Bancel, CEO of Moderna commented on the last year’s performance following the latest results: "In 2021, we delivered 807 million doses with approximately 25% of those doses going to low- and middle-income countries, and we will continue to scale in 2022 to help end the COVID-19 pandemic. Moderna has experienced exponential growth and we have more than doubled the size of our team over the last year with a global team of 3,000.
We also have announced plans to scale to 21 commercial subsidiaries across the world, including four new locations in Asia and six new locations in Europe. We continue to expand and advance our industry-leading mRNA pipeline with 44 programs in development. We look forward to clinical readouts from our therapeutics development candidates later in 2022 in rare genetic diseases and oncology.
We are entering 2022 with a remarkable team and strategic priorities to continue advancing mRNA vaccines and therapeutics to impact human health." Moderna Inc. (MRNA) chart (Weekly) Share price of Moderna surged by over 10% during Thursday, trading at $147.53 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: +0.18% 3 Month: -45.54% Year-to-date: -41.38% 1 Year: +0.34% Moderna Inc. is the 274 th largest company in the world and 21 st largest pharmaceutical company with a total market cap of $59.54 billion. You can trade Moderna Inc. (MRNA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Moderna Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) reported its latest financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Thursday. The US financial services company reported revenue of $5.497 billion in Q2, beating analyst estimate of $5.267 billion. Earnings per share reported at $2.56 per share vs. $2.36 per share expected. ''We had strong revenue and earnings growth again this quarter, as overall consumer spending remained robust and cross-border volumes grew 58% versus year ago,'' Michael Miebach, CEO of Mastercard said in a press release following the results. ''Increasing inflationary pressures have yet to significantly impact overall consumer spending but we will continue to monitor this closely.
We have a well-diversified business model and the demonstrated ability to deliver strong operating margins through up and down cycles,'' Miebach concluded. Mastercard Incorporated (MA) chart Shares of MasterCard were trading higher on Thursday after beating Wall Street expectations, up by around 1% at $348.50 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +10.56% 3 Month -7.92% Year-to-date -2.92% 1 Year -10.29% Mastercard Incorporated price targets JP Morgan $425 Wells Fargo $400 Piper Sandler $298 Mizuho $375 Truist Securities $420 Barclays $430 BMO Capital $402 Morgan Stanley $452 Mastercard Incorporated is the 19 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $338.14 billion.
You can trade Mastercard Incorporated (MA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Mastercard Incorporated, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap