Notícias de mercado & insights
Mantenha-se à frente dos mercados com insights de especialistas, notícias e análise técnica para orientar suas decisões de negociação.
O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for November on Wednesday, setting a new monthly following disappointing results in October. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 10,878 cars last month – an increase of 105.6% year-over-year. The deliveries in November consisted of: 2,683 ES8s – the company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV 4,713 ES6s – the company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV 3,482 EC6s – the company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV NIO has delivered a total of 80,940 cars in 2021 and 156,581 in total as of 30 th November, 2021.
NIO Inc. Chart (1Y) Shares of NIO were trading higher on Wednesday following the latest delivery numbers, up by around 2% on the day. The stock is down by 16.61% in the past year at $40.19 a share.
NIO is the 13 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $63.79 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: NIO, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
Last week, NIO announced that they have entered into a strategic agreement with Shell, the largest gasoline retailer in the world. The latest move is a boost for NIO to further establish themselves in the electric vehicle industry. The agreement includes plans to construct and operate battery charging and swapping facilities in China and Europe.
NIO and Shell plan to install 100 battery swapping stations in China by 2025 and start to construct and operate pilot stations in Europe from next year. Both companies will also explore collaboration opportunities in battery asset management, fleet management, membership system, home charging services, advanced battery charging and swapping technology development, and construction of charging facilities. William Li, Founder, Chairman, CEO of NIO commented on the agreement: ''The cooperation demonstrates Shell’s determination to accelerate the energy transition and commitment to contribute to sustainable development globally.
We believe that the cooperation between NIO and Shell will bring better services and experience to electric vehicle users worldwide.'' István Kapitány, global executive vice president of Shell Mobility said: "Decarbonization is a global challenge that requires broad-reaching, multi-faceted global solutions. This is the most exciting thing about our new partnership with NIO—the breadth of the collaboration and the value we can offer our EV customers together, both in Europe and in China. Together, we'll be working to improve every aspect of the EV experience.
This means we’ll offer Shell Recharge high-speed charging at NIO locations and make battery swap available at convenient Shell locations while also offering NIO customers our best home and business charging solutions." Shell has service stations in nearly 46,000 locations in 80 markets around the world. The company is planning to operate more than 500,000 electric vehicle charge points globally by 2025. NIO Inc.
Chart (1Y) Share price of NIO is down by 19.93% in the past year at $40.46 per share. NIO is the 12 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $63.20 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: NIO, Shell, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
It’s set to be busy one over in the United States this week with some of the world’s largest companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Alphabet due to report their Q1 earnings. Up first – Tesla. World’s largest electric vehicle maker reported their results after the closing bell on Monday.
Elon Musk’s Tesla reported total revenue of $10.39 billion in Q1 above analyst forecast of $10.29 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $0.93 above $0.78 expected. Net profit reached $438 million in Q1 – the highest quarterly number ever for the company. "In Q1, we achieved our highest ever vehicle production and deliveries.
This was in spite of multiple challenges, including seasonality, supply chain instability and the transition to the new Model S and Model X. Our GAAP net income reached $438M, and our non-GAAP net income surpassed $1B for the first time in our history." Earlier in the month, the company reported record delivery numbers with 184,800 vehicles delivered in the first 3 months of 2021 – a 109% improvement from Q1 in 2020. Tesla are planning a 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries in the next few years. "Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.
In some years we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021," Tesla said in a statement. "The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and capacity and stability of the supply chain." Shares of Tesla trading lower following the latest numbers, down by 1.83% post-market after ending the trading day on Monday at $738.20 per share. Share price is up by over 4% year-to-date. Total market cap currently stands at over $722 billion, making it the 8 th largest company in the world.
Tesla Source: TradingView You can trade Tesla (TSLA) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
Intel, the US technology giant reported its Q1 earnings after the closing bell on Thursday. The company reported revenue of $18.57 billion, above analyst forecast of $17.90 billion. Earnings per share were at $1.39, also beating analyst expectations of $1.15 per share.
Intel’s data-centre group revenue fell by over 20% year-over-year to $5.56 billion, below analyst forecast of $5.89 billion. ''Intel delivered strong first-quarter results driven by exceptional demand for our leadership products and outstanding execution by our team. The response to our new IDM 2.0 strategy has been extraordinary, our product roadmap is gaining momentum, and we’re rapidly progressing our plans with a re-invigorated focus on innovation and execution,'' said Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO. ''This is a pivotal year for Intel. We are setting our strategic foundation and investing to accelerate our trajectory and capitalize on the explosive growth in semiconductors that power our increasingly digital world.'' Despite the earnings beat, the share price of Intel was trading lower in post-market – down by 2.51%.
The stock is up by 25% year-to-date after ending the trading day on Thursday at $62.57 per share. Intel Source: TradingView Intel is the world's largest semiconductor chip maker by revenue. The company is headquartered in California, US and has over 110,000 employees worldwide.
It supplies microprocessors for computer manufacturers such as Dell and HP. You can trade Intel (INTC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
Netflix reported their Q1 earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday. The online streaming service reported total revenue of $7.16 billion in Q1 beating analyst forecast of $5.77 billion. Earnings per share were reported at $3.75 vs. $2.98 estimate.
With both revenue and earnings per share higher than analysts' expectations, the new paid subscriber additions came in way below analysts' forecast of 6.29 million – at 3.98 million. The latest dip in new additions could be the beginning of a further slowdown in new subscribers as lockdown eases around the world and people return to normality. ''Revenue grew 24% year over year and was in line with our beginning of quarter forecast while operating profit and margin reached all-time highs. We finished Q1’21 with 208m paid memberships, up 14% year over year, but below our guidance forecast of 210m paid memberships.
We believe paid membership growth slowed due to the big Covid-19 pull forward in 2020 and a lighter content slate in the first half of this year, due to Covid-19 production delays. We continue to anticipate a strong second half with the return of new seasons of some of our biggest hits and an exciting film lineup. In the short-term, there is some uncertainty from Covid-19; in the long-term, the rise of streaming to replace linear TV around the world is the clear trend in entertainment,'' Netflix said in a letter to investors following the announcement.
Shares of Netflix was down by around 9% in post-market on Tuesday following the latest numbers, down at $495 per share after ending the trading day a $549.57 per share. Netflix Source: TradingView You can trade Netflix (NFLX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
Last week marked a significant milestone for NIO when it produced its 100,000 th electric vehicle. The latest development also caught the eye of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, to which he responded: ''Congrats to NIO. That is a tough milestone.'' On Thursday, NIO officially confirmed its partnership with Sinopec – taking a major step forward in the company’s future.
Rumours about a potential partnership between the two companies first emerged back in February, when Sinopec Chairman Zhang Yuzhuo visited NIO’s battery swap station. About Sinopec Sinopec is the largest supplier of refined oil products and petrochemicals as well as the second-largest oil and gas producer in China. It was founded on 25 th February 2000 in Beijing, China and has over 240,000 employees globally.
The company has more than 30,000 gas stations – second highest in the world. The partnership NIO’s statement on the partnership: ''The partnership between Sinopec and NIO is an important milestone for further developing China's smart EV industry, a concrete measure to help achieve peak carbon emissions and achieve carbon neutrality, a key step in developing global, green, and innovative transportation initiatives and innovations.'' Following the announcement, NIO and Sinopec also unveiled the NIO Power Swap Station 2.0 at Sinopec's Chaoying Station in Beijing, China. The share price of NIO has taken a hit in recent months after reaching record highs back in February when it climbed above $60 per share.
It was down by around 5% on Thursday following the announcement, trading at around $34 per share. Worth noting that it was trading at $3.20 per share same time last year, a 995% increase at the current share price. NIO Source: TradingView You can trade NIO (NIO) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.