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El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
Natural Gas prices have had a volatile year to say the least. After finding multi decade highs on the back of geo-political volatility and record high inflation levels the price has seen an aggressive retracement. With the overall commodities market suffering a big drop as recessionary pressures have taken over and a resilient USD, Natural gas has seen a 30 per cent drop from its peak.
News about leaks in the Nord Stream 1 Pipeline and Russia's control over much of the rest of Europe's supply has seen an increase of volatility and with Europe entering winter soon and the surety of supply still on a knifes edge, the market remains volatile. Looking at the recent price action of Natural Gas, the long-term chart shows that the current price is sitting on a strong area of support at 6 USD. Not only is the price sitting on a strong area of support, the area also doubles as the 200-day average.
The weekly candle is a Doji showing indecision as buyers and sellers look to find the equilibrium price. By comparing both the RSI from the weekly and daily charts its can be observed that there is interesting divergence of patterns. On the weekly timeframe, the RSI is consolidating into a symmetrical triangle whilst the daily RSI shows a bounce off the oversold zone.
This may provide a clue as to which direction the price may go next. If the price continues to bounce off the oversold level, it may indicate a longer-term break on the weekly chart. This bounce would provide an obvious target for a reversal to the long side to the top of the range at 10 USD.
With general market volatility still quite high and commodities seeing aggressive moves, the next 6-12 months may provide some interesting trading opportunities for natural gas in both directions.
The AUD has fallen to lows not since the beginning of the Covid 19 pandemic and does not look like stopping anytime soon. With global commodity prices coming down and fears of a recession causing panic sell offs the AUD has been victim to a two-fold attack. The general recession fears push growth assets including the Australian dollar downward as investors look to put their money into safer assets.
In addition, as the USD has increased commodity prices have come down. Going forward, with presumably with recessionary fears only set to get worse globally and inflation in Europe and the UK potentially reaching 20% central banks have had no choice but to be aggressive with their monetary policy. The slowing growth has been a cause for concern as growth assets alongside the AUD have sold off.
Therefore, until there is really a peak in inflation or signs from the Federal Reserve that it intends to back off its hawkish stance, the AUD may very well continue to dive. Technical Analysis On the weekly chart the price currently in a nosedive with no obvious support in sight. The closest support in still $0.04 away at $0.60 which were the GFC lows.
If that level goes, then the next target is $0.55 which was the price during the initial stages of the Pandemic. Just as concerning is the fact that the 50-week moving average is almost ready to cross below the 200 week moving average. This is a lagging indicator that shows that the pair is very much being controlled by the sellers.
In addition, the RSI also still has room to drop further down to reach the level of the Covid 19 levels. The daily price chart confirms the analysis above and if anything shows a more systematic down trend. With both 50 day and 200 day moving averages trending down it does not bode well for a reversal any time soon.IN addition, the price has not been able to breakthrough both averages at for a significant period since June 2021.
Whilst the market can turn quickly, there is still s much fear and panic around that it is hard to see the AUD turning in the short term.
Following the previous Bitcoin analysis ( https://www.gomarkets.com/au/articles/economic-updates/bitcoin-usd-technical-analysis/ ), bitcoin continues to break below pattern after pattern, recently breaking out and re-testing a descending flag pattern on a 4h time frame as seen below: With the next major support sitting around $17,619, it won’t be a surprise if bitcoin comes down to that area. Looking at the correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum, the last 7 days of price action shows a correlation of.89, which is a positive value that indicates a positive correlation between the two. A positive correlation means that the two moves very similar to one another. [caption id="attachment_273298" align="alignnone" width="602"] (https://cryptowat.ch/correlations)[/caption] [caption id="attachment_273299" align="alignnone" width="527"] (https://cryptowat.ch/correlations)[/caption] For ETHUSD (Ethereum), making similar patterns to BTCUSD, has also recently broken out of a descending flag pattern, signalling a probable continuation of the 4h downtrend, there is a high probability of ETHUSD reaching the next major support around $1012.
The USDJPY has been one of the strongest performing currency pairs since the beginning of the year. With geopolitical volatility and record high inflation rates impacting the global economy, the strength of the USD has just continued to be on show. On the contrary, the JPY has been pillaged from pillar to post as the Bank of Japan has refused to change form its dovish stance and remain one of the few countries committed to holding interest rates low in the medium term.
The different responses The US Federal Reserve has become extremely hawkish with its monetary policy, after describing inflation as transitory only last year. After recording extremely hot CPI and Core CP figures for the last month as the yield on US government treasuries has increased and trader price in more interest rate hikes. Conversely the BOJ has continued to keep a 0.25% cap on its 10-year government bonds.
On the other hand, a weak JPY makes the cost of importing energy and food more expensive in Japan. This is especially problematic as the global energy crunch and inflation have sent the price of these goods and commodities sky rocketing. The BOJ has also continued to buy up government debt stimulating the economy which has further weakened the currency.
However, unlike, much of the rest of the world, Japan’s inflation level is still relatively low. These actions of both banks and the current economic climate has led to a situation where the USDJPY is currently at 30-year highs and only looking to go higher. The price has been going up aggressively since 2021 has been an aggressive upward trend.
Since March 2022 the price has sped up and broken through decade high levels. The BOJ has so far been unwilling to change, at least until April 2023 meaning there is little to stop the JPY continuing to fall. On the other side, with the Federal Reserve set to continue raising rates there is nothing to stop the USD from continuing to climb.
Technical Analysis In recent days the price has begun to consolidate into a flag or pennant pattern. As it can be seen on the chart, the price has reduced its range and volume as it has paused amid its push upward. A pattern like this is not unexpected and is standard of a strong upward trend.
In addition, with important economic events to come like the FOMC meeting and the shift in federal funds rate, the USD may increase its strength if the rates incur an unexpectedly increase in rates. The next target if the price does break out of the triangle is 147 and then 160. Various economic events can still play a role in either pushing the price up or down.
AutoZone Inc. (AZO) reported its fourth quarter financial results for the period ending August 27, 2022 on Monday. The largest US retailer of aftermarket automotive parts reported revenue of $5.348 billion (up by 8.9% from the same period last year) vs. $5.164 billion expected. The company reported earnings per share of $40.51 for the quarter vs. $38.51 earnings per share expected. ''Our results are a testament to our AutoZoners’ ongoing commitment to delivering exceptional customer service every day.
Our retail business performed well this quarter ending with positive same store sales on top of last year’s strong performance. And, our commercial business growth continued to be exceptionally strong at 22%. The investments we have made in both inventory availability and technology are enhancing our competitive positioning.
We are optimistic about our growth prospects heading into our new fiscal year,'' Bill Rhodes, Chairman, President and CEO of AutoZone commented on the results. During the quarter, AutoZone opened 118 new stores and closed one in the United States. As of August 27, 2022, the company had 6,943 stores within the United States (6,168), Mexico (703) and Brazil (72).
AutoZone Inc. (AZO) chart Shares of AutoZone were down by around 2% on Monday, trading at $2100.66 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -6.28% 3 months: +8.69% Year-to-date: +3.30% 1 year: +36.62% AutoZone price targets UBS: $2260 Wells Fargo: $2450 Raymond James: $2350 Goldman Sachs: $2296 Morgan Stanley: $2420 Citigroup: $2250 JP Morgan: $2200 AutoZone is the 364 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $42.20 billion. You can trade AutoZone Inc. (AZO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: AutoZone Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The NZDJPY like most currencies against the JPY has been in a strong uptrend for over 2 years. With the Central Bank of Japan remaining dovish in its monetary policy the currency has taken a beating against most other currencies and as other Central Banks have acted against rising inflation. The NZD has been able to take advantage of the JPY weakness and consolidate into a large symmetrical triangle.
The price recently broke out of the triangle to the upside before failing to push through the next resistance point at 87.350 JPY and falling back down. This was in part due to the hot inflation figures that came from the USA. With CPI and core CPI figures being higher than expected the risk on currencies like the AUD and the NZD both dropped as the market looked to move their money into safer assets.
The drop was seen most clearly against the USD in which the NZD fell to 26-month lows. New Zealand also just announced their q/q GDP figures showing very strong result with a 1.7% increase for the quarter, which was 0.7% higher than what was expected, and 1.8% higher than the prior period. The price of the NZDJPY initially spiked up on the announcement although since then it has been a tight consolidation.
Technicals As discussed above, the price failed to break above the 87.35 resistance point and subsequently sold back down. However, it has not yet breached the triangle to the downside and may just be a fake out. The RSI also mirrors the breakout with the tight consolidation of the RSI before a spike to the upside.
With the price attempting to reach decade highs a fake out/ retracement is not particularly unexpected. As shown in the chart, it is possible, the price action will retest the resistance point before breaking higher. The next resistance point after if the breakout does occur will be 90.00 JPY.
However, this area is a relatively heavy supply zones as seen on the weekly chart. The weekly chart also indicates a long term upward trending channel, which provides more support for a continuation of the upward move. Shifts in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy may negatively impact this trade.
At this stage they have been unwilling to change their dovish stance, however if they were to increase interest rates, a shift may occur and likely very quickly, therefore some caution is needed.