Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
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El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced its latest financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain reported total revenue of $152.8 billion for the quarter (up by 8.7% year-over-year) vs. $147.668 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $1.50 per share (up by 3.4% year-over-year) vs. $1.321 per share estimate. ''We had a good quarter with strong top-line growth globally led by Walmart and Sam’s Club U.S., along with Flipkart and Walmex.
Walmart U.S. continued to gain market share in grocery, helped by unit growth in our food business. We significantly improved our inventory position in Q3, and we’ll continue to make progress as we end the year. From The Big Billion Days in India, through our Deals for Days events in the U.S. and a Thanksgiving meal that will cost the same as last year, we’re here to help make this an affordable and special time for families around the world.
We have an amazing group of associates that make all this happen, and I want to say thank you,'' President and CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon said in a press release. Walmart raised its full-year outlook after its strong Q3 results and announced a $20 billion share buyback program. Shares of Walmart were up by 6.54% on Tuesday at $147.14 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +10.69% 3 month: +54% Year-to-date: +62% 1 year: +71% Walmart price targets Jefferies: $165 Keybanc: $155 Morgan Stanley: $150 DA Davidson: $163 Cowen & Co.: $165 Stifel: $149 Oppenheimer: $155 Credit Suisse: $145 Deutsche Bank: $162 Citigroup: $162 Walmart is the 14 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $402.87 billion. You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) announced Q3 financial results before the market open in the US on Thursday. The Chinese automaker fell short of analyst estimates for the quarter. The company reported revenue of $1.827 billion (up by 26.3% from the same period last year) vs. $1.836 billion estimate.
Loss per share reported at -$0.297 per share vs. analyst estimate of -$0.147 loss per share. ''NIO delivered 31,607 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022, representing a solid growth of 29.3% year-over-year and achieving a record-breaking quarterly delivery. Following the delivery of our new product lineup based on NIO Technology 2.0 catering to different market segments, we have witnessed strong growth momentum in user demand and robust foot traffic, especially after the debut of ET5s in stores from September, and expect the ET5 delivery will support a substantial acceleration of our overall revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. To meet the growing user demand and shorten the waiting time, we have been working closely with supply chain partners to accelerate production and delivery,'' William Bin Li, founder, chairman and CEO of NIO said in a press release after the latest numbers were announced.
NIO expects revenues of between $2.442 billion and $2.703 billion in Q4, which would be an increase of between 75.4% to 94.2% from the same period last year. Shares of NIO were up by over 10% on Thursday, despite missing Q3 estimates as the company looks to accelerate production and delivery to meet growing demand in Q4. Stock performance 1 month: -18.74% 3 month: -50.12% Year-to-date: -67.22% 1 year: -75.39% NIO price targets Morgan Stanley: $31 HSBC: $28 Goldman Sachs: $56 Barclays: $34 Mizuho: $42 Citigroup: $31.3 B of A Securities: $26 UBS: $32 Barclays: $19 Deutsche Bank: $20 NIO is the 23 rd largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $17.71 billion.
You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) reported the latest financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended October 1, 2022, after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. The biggest entertainment company in the world missed both revenue and earnings per share estimates (EPS) for the quarter. The company reported revenue of $20.15 billion for the quarter (up by 9% year-over-year) vs. the $21.268 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.30 per share (down by 19% year-over-year) vs. the $0.558 per share expected. Revenue reached $82.722 billion for the fiscal year that ended October 1, 2022 – up 23% from the previous year. EPS reported at $3.53% per share, up by 54% from 2021. ''2022 was a strong year for Disney, with some of our best storytelling yet, record results at our Parks, Experiences and Products segment, and outstanding subscriber growth at our direct-to-consumer services, which added nearly 57 million subscriptions this year for a total of more than 235 million,'' Bob Chapek, CEO of Disney said in a press release. ''Our fourth quarter saw strong subscription growth with the addition of 14.6 million total subscriptions, including 12.1 million Disney+ subscribers.
The rapid growth of Disney+ in just three years since launch is a direct result of our strategic decision to invest heavily in creating incredible content and rolling out the service internationally, and we expect our DTC operating losses to narrow going forward and that Disney+ will still achieve profitability in fiscal 2024, assuming we do not see a meaningful shift in the economic climate. By realigning our costs and realizing the benefits of price increases and our Disney+ ad-supported tier coming December 8, we believe we will be on the path to achieve a profitable streaming business that will drive continued growth and generate shareholder value long into the future. And as we embark on Disney’s second century in 2023, I am filled with optimism that this iconic company’s best days still lie ahead,'' Chapek added.
Shares of Disney were little changed at the end of the day on Tuesday, down by 0.53% at $99.94 a share. The stock fell by around 9% in the after-hours trading after missing Wall Street estimates for the previous quarter. Stock performance 1 month: +7.30% 3 months: -7.61% Year-to-date: -35.50% 1 year: -42.95% Walt Disney price targets Keybanc: $143 UBS: $135 Rosenblatt: $134 JP Morgan: $145 B of A Securities: $127 Arete Research: $263 Credit Suisse: $157 Wells Fargo: $145 Goldman Sachs: $140 Walt Disney is the 50 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $182.12 billion.
You can trade The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Walt Disney Company, TradingView, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Bitcoin has dropped dramatically over the last 24 hours to its lowest level for the year after fears were sparked that major player FTX faced a liquidity crisis. In the last two years cryptocurrency has become available to large institutions and funds which has increased the overall size of the market. However, at the same time it has made it vulnerable to large liquidity events such as the one that is occurring now.
The reason for the large drop-off was the news that exchange FTX was facing serious liquidity issues after a large drop in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies this year. Subsequently almost as an act of mercy, Binance the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange has proposed that it will buy out FTX and its subsidiaries to stabilise the market. In addition, fears over customers’ ability to withdraw their funds from accounts were abounds on Tuesday.
This is not the first-time withdrawal issues have hurt the sector with frozen accounts being an issue when Celsius was facing difficulties. This run has seen the price of Bitcoin fall sharply to its lowest levels since November 2020. The price dumped about USD 2000 as the news hit the market.
The price then bounced of the USD 17,000 level to where it now rests near in the mid USD 18,000’s. The volume sold was the highest level since June 2022. Importantly, the price continues to hold its longer term range indicating some level of strength at the USD 18,000 level.
There is still a fair bit to play out regarding this potential merger. A failed deal or an accelerated acquisition could either help or hinder the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
In recent days and weeks there have been rumours that China is beginning to consider an easing of its Covid restrictions. As virtually the last country with extreme Covid restrictions, a shift in policy from China would be a major catalyst for the global markets and economy. Whilst the CCP has not yet announced any actual easing, there are hopes that they will soon begin to ease off on some of their measures.
Health officials have stated that local governments should not “double down” on restrictions and allow people’s livelihoods and economic activity to remain normal even in the face of increasing covid cases. General activity has shown an increase in flights and covid vaccine uptake across the country which may signal a move towards ending restrictions. Impact on the markets The country is set to have one of its worst years of growth in the last 20 years as it deals with the prolonged restrictions.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange has fallen by more than 17% and the Yuan has depreciated almost 17% against the USD. This is in the wake of global inflation and recessionary pressures. A strong China is a very good thing for the global economy, especially with regards to growth economies.
Once restrictions do ease, it is expected that Chinese stocks will rally heavily. However, it is not just Chinese stocks that will receive a boost. Australian mining companies and the AUD will likely benefit as China is a large importer of Australian resources.
It may also weaken the USD as money flows back into riskier assets and away from the greenback as the general economy begins to accelerate again. Ultimately, regardless of when exactly, China decides to ease its restrictions it would be prudent to be aware of the potential ramifications as it may provide a strong boost to the equities market and on some aspects of the foreign exchange market as well.
BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) reported its third quarter financial results on Monday. The German pharmaceutical company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter, sending the stock price higher. The company reported revenue of $3.392 billion vs. $2.024 billion expected.
EPS reported at $6.841 per share vs. $3.352 per share estimate. ''Thanks to our strong execution in the third quarter of 2022, we updated our COVID-19 vaccine revenue guidance for the year 2022 to the upper end of the original range. We started shipments of our Omicron-adapted bivalent vaccines early in September and we expect to carry on with our deliveries throughout the fourth quarter of 2022,'' Jens Holstein, CFO of BioNTech commented on the latest results. ''We believe in the potential of our COVID-19 franchise and plan to build on our leading position with ongoing innovations in this field. The power of our scientific innovation combined with our strong financial position allows us to accelerate and expand our diversified clinical pipeline and to create future growth in the interest of all stakeholders,'' Holstein concluded.
The stock was up by around 2% during the session on Monday following the latest results, trading at $155.52 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +16.38% 3 months: -7.00% Year-to-date: -38.93% 1 year: -35.10% BioNTech price targets JPMorgan: $132 Deutsche Bank: $250 HC Wainwright & Co.: $272 SVB Leerink: $224 Morgan Stanley: $194 Goldman Sachs: $206 BioNTech SE is the 411 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $38.46 billion. You can trade BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: BioNTech SE, TradingView, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap