Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
TSMC posts strong Q4 results – the stock is rising Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM) reported Q4 financial results before the market open in the US on Thursday. The Taiwanese company reported revenue of $20.554 billion for Q4, falling slightly short of Wall Street estimate of $20.574 billion. TSMC reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.875% for the quarter, higher than $1.795 EPS expected.
CFO commentary ''Our fourth quarter business was dampened by end market demand softness, and customers’ inventory adjustment, despite the continued ramp-up for our industry-leading 5nm technologies,'' Wendell Huang, VP and CFO said after the results. ''Moving into first quarter 2023, as overall macroeconomic conditions remain weak, we expect our business to be further impacted by continued end market demand softness, and customers’ further inventory adjustment,'' Huang looked ahead. The company expects the revenue of between $16.7 billion and $17.5 billion for Q1. Stock reaction Shares of TSMC were up by over 7% on Thursday at $88.07 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: 3 months: Year-to-date: 1 year: TSMC price targets Susquehanna: $88 Atlantic Equities: $170 Cowen & Co.: $120 Argus Research: $150 Goldman Sachs: $55 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited is the 10 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $454.97 billion. You can trade Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
What is going on with Tesla’s share price? Tesla is now one of the world’s most recognisable brands and companies. A leader in technology and pioneer of the electric vehicle space.
The company has become a beacon of hope for the charge against climate change and move towards a more a carbon friendly future. At the centre of the company is its CEO, South African born billionaire, and visionary Elon Musk. Musk, who famously took over Twitter last year and has a list of other ventures including SpaceX, the Boring project and Starlink is a polarising figure with his controversial tweet comments and stances.
This at times has hurt Tesla’s share price and reputation. However, he has been bold and aggressive in his plans and hopes for Tesla. However, the company’s share price has taken a massive hit in the prior 18 month after peaking at $414.
The price has now fallen back to $117 and is down 71.5% from those highs. The reason for the drop is due to various reason, Musk’s own hubris, a tough environment for growth company’s and missed deadlines. However, is the current state a once in a lifetime opportunity to enter a generational company at a heavy discount or a sign of big change in fortunes for the company.
The numbers The company’s share price has been dropping rapidly as production has slowed worries over the company’s ability to keep up with demand or worse the slowing of demand has spooked the market to the ability for the company to continue to grow. Furthermore, concern has developed over whether its first mover advantage is starting to fall away. Other car manufacturers are beginning to develop and get to market their own electric vehicles threatening Tesla’s market share.
In saying this, Tesla still managed to sell 1.3 million vehicles last year short of the Musk’s 50% growth target. The company also manufactured 1.37 million cars for the 2022 calendar year. The company also increased its revenue to 74.836 billion dollars from 53.823 billion for the prior financial year.
Tesla also has a notoriously high Price/Earnings ratio even when compared to most other car manufacturers. Top car manufacturers such as Toyota, Volkswagen and Ford have much more modest PE ratios then Tesla has. Therefore, it is possible that the market is just valuing the company alongside the industry standard.
In addition, the company still has a market capitalisation of almost double that of Toyota and significantly higher than other manufacturers. Company PE Ratio BMW 3.11 Volkswagen 4.14 Toyota 9.19 Ford 5.70 Tesla 31.3 Price Action analysis The price chart for Tesla is not particularly encouraging. The price is at levels not seen in more than 2 and a half years.
The price is currently at $120 USD and has not yet made a bottom. In fact, the price has fallen below its 200-week moving average a bearish sign. It is resting on a support region at 110-120 dollars and if it fails its next support is at $65.
The volume of selling has been quite aggressive. At this stage until, there is some sort of support or buying volume it remains a more favorable short then long. However, if the price can find support at $110 it may bounce and begin a reversal.
Ultimately, Tesla remains an intriguing opportunity for traders and investors. With high volatility and a high growth runway, Tesla may provide a rare opportunity for a long time.
The USDJPY has dropped more than 400 pips in just a few minutes after the Bank of Japan brought adjusted its intervention criteria. The bank did not change its official rate, which are -0.10%, an extremely low figure compared to almost every other country. Japan has been a show of dovishness in a sea of hawkishness.
However, this latest move has been seen by the market as hawkish as the USDJPY dropped to its lowest levels since August and sent the equity market falling. The Bank of Japan committed to widening its yield curve control. Prior to the announcement the bank had allowed for movement of -0.25% to 0.25% before interviewing by way of buying and selling government bonds.
However, the latest move has seen the bank change the threshold to -0.5% to 0.5% before intervening. This allows the Bank of Japan to lessen its intervention going forward. The largest move was in the USDJPY which crashed below its 200-day moving average to fall by more than 400 pips.
On the 15-minute chart, the price is currently consolidating as it decides what to do next. A break of the lows at 133.1 may bring the next support at 131.245 into play. On the contrary, if the price can bounce at this level it may move to 134.5.
With the US trading session still to play out tonight there may be some trading opportunities that arise.
The US Dollar Index plummeted on Tuesday, December 13, breaking below a major support following a softer-than-expected inflation report for November. This led to investors scaling back expectations for future Federal Reserve rate increases. Since the initial drop after announcement was released, the price of the Dollar Index has recovered almost 80%.
Although this could simply be the pullback phase of a longer-term downtrend. A downtrend is an overall decrease in price, created by lower lows and lower highs which can clearly be seen on the daily time frame, marked out in the chart below. This week's CPI reading, combined with the technical analysis of the dollar index, suggests that the USD Index may continue to decline, with the next major support sitting around $102.25.
The dollar index is currently retracing and testing a resistance zone between $104.40 and $104.90.
The EUR look to be turning after an impressive run. The pair has risen by 12.57%since it hit the bottom in September. At the time the price fell to 0.9525.
This was the lowest level the EUR had reached since the year 2000. In September, Europe was facing extreme inflationary pressure and conversely the USD was rocketing towards record high levels. However, since this time the price recovered and now near the 50-week moving average.
After this great rebound it does seem as if the price is overextended and in need of a rest. As it can be seen on the weekly chart the candlesticks are showing an exhausted reverse hammer candlestick. It is categorised by a long wick and small body that has closed very near its open price.
The price is also struggling to break above the resistance level at 1.07 which doubles as the 50-week moving average. The failure to break above would likely confirm that the price is still very much trending down. This also opens a potential trading opportunity to go short.
With the price at resistance and potentially good risk reward till the next support all that is needed is a trigger for an entry. Looking at the daily chart for some ideas for an entry is useful. Here the price is currently in an upward channel.
If this channel were to breakdown, then it may indicate a breakdown of the price and an entry for the longer-term short trade. In addition, the RSI is still holding an upward trending pattern. Although it may also offer some confirmation of a break down.
The RSI is relatively overbought and if it breaks down from the trend may signal a reversal. With the Christmas holidays almost here, the volatility and liquidity may be a little lower but moving into 2023 may provide some good conditions for this trade to eventuate.
Gold rises to 6 months high as USD weakens The price of gold has risen as softer inflationary figures pushed the USD lower. The month/month CPI grew just 0.1% vs 0.3% expected, whilst the year/year figure grew by 7.1% vs 7.3% expected. Core CPI month/month rose by 0.2% vs 0.3%.
These figures sent the USD down, which provided a boost to most commodities including Gold with the market becoming more positive about a potential pivot from the Federal Reserve. With the FOMC meeting still to come later this week, and an expected 50 bps increase in the funds rate. However, anything lower or if the Fed releases a particular dovish announcement will further weaken the USD and potentially strengthen the price of Gold.
Technical Analysis The price of gold has broken out of a considerable consolidation. With recessionary pressure now seemingly trumping inflationary pressure, gold may be back in vogue as a transition of capital from riskier investments into gold pushes the price higher. Trading opportunities for gold may come from both long and short positions due to the overall ranging pattern.
Currently, the price has an area of ‘chop’ where the price is neither trending up or down. On the weekly chart, the price is testing the 50-week moving average which is a great measure of the mean of the price or the long-term average. This also coincides with the centre region of the range, which is at approximately USD $1850 per ounce, indicated by the red line on the daily chart.
Looking more closely at the daily chart, the RSI is consolidating and may breakout to the overbought zone before falling back down to a more manageable region. In addition, the 50-day moving average has swung back to in rising position. The global economic outlook still looks gloomy, particularly in relation to the effects or severity of a potential recession.
Therefore, gold may become more attractive to the market as growth continues to slow.