Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) announced first quarter results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. World’s largest ridesharing company beat analyst expectations for the quarter, sending the stock price higher. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) The results Uber reported revenue of $8.823 billion (up by 29% vs Q1 2022) vs. $8.703 billion expected.
The company reported loss per share of -$0.08 per share vs. estimate of -$0.087 loss per share. CEO commentary "We significantly accelerated Q1 trip growth to 24% from 19% last quarter, with Mobility trip growth of 32%, as a result of improved earner and consumer engagement,” Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber said in a letter to shareholders. "Looking ahead, we are focused on extending our product, scale and platform advantages to sustain market-leading top and bottom-line growth beyond 2023," Khosrowshahi added. The stock was up +11.55% on Tuesday at $36.53 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +16.34% 3 months: +18.07% Year-to-date: +47.67% 1 year: +23.92% Uber price targets Wedbush: $44 Needham: $54 RBC Capital: $46 Deutsche Bank: $44 JMP Securities: $55 Wolfe Research: $45 UBS: $48 JP Morgan: $52 Wells Fargo: $53 Uber is the 196 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $73.54 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) announced the latest financial results for the first three months of 2023 before the market open in the US on Monday. The US Beverage company posted solid results for the quarter, beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview Founded: January 29, 1892 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 79,000 (2021) Industry: Beverage Key people: James Quincey (chairman and CEO), Brian Smith (president and COO) Owners: Berkshire Hathaway (9.23%), The Vanguard Group (7.90%), BlackRock (6.45%) The results The company reported revenue of $10.959 billion vs. $10.797 billion expected.
Revenues were up by 5% year-over-year. EPS at $0.68 per share (up by 6% from the same period last year) vs. $0.646 per share estimate. CEO commentary ''We are encouraged by our first quarter 2023 results,'' James Quincey, CEO of company said in a press release. ''Our system alignment is stronger than ever, and our networked organization is allowing us to adapt as needed.
We continue to invest for the long term, strengthening our capabilities to drive sustainable value for our stakeholders. We have the right portfolio, the right strategy and the right execution to deliver in the marketplace. We are confident in our ability to deliver on our 2023 objectives,'' Quincey concluded.
The latest results did not have a massive impact on the share price on Monday. The stock was up by 0.41% at $64.25 per share. Stock performance 1 month: +4.74% 3 months: +6.69% Year-to-date: +1.02% 1 year: -2.55% The Coca-Cola Company price targets Barclays: $72 Deutsche Bank: $60 Citigroup: $68 UBS: $72 Morgan Stanley: $70 Wells Fargo: $70 Wedbush: $63 Credit Suisse: $64 HSBC: $76 The Coca-Cola Company is the 30 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $277.94 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Coca-Cola Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
World’s largest automaker, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), reported Q1 financial results after market close in the US on Wednesday. Elon Musk’s company posted mixed results for the quarter. Let’s take a closer look at how it performed.
Company overview Founded: July 1, 2003 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of branches: 764 retail stores/galleries and service centers (2022) Number of employees: 127,855 (2022) Industry: Automotive, renewable energy, artificial intelligence Key people: Elon Musk (CEO), Robyn Denholm (chair) The results Tesla reported revenue that missed analyst estimate at $23.329 billion vs. $23.596 billion expected. Revenues were up by 24% compared to Q1 2022. Earnings per share reported at $0.85 per share (down by -21% year-over-year) vs. $0.846 per share estimate.
The automaker produced 440,808 and delivered 422,875 cars in Q1, up by 44% and 36% year-over-year, respectively. Company commentary ''In the current macroeconomic environment, we see this year as a unique opportunity for Tesla. As many carmakers are working through challenges with the unit economics of their EV programs, we aim to leverage our position as a cost leader.
We are focused on rapidly growing production, investments in autonomy and vehicle software, and remaining on track with our growth investment,'' Tesla said in a letter to shareholders. The company also commented on its pricing strategy: ''Our near-term pricing strategy considers a long-term view on per vehicle profitability given the potential lifetime value of a Tesla vehicle through autonomy, supercharging, connectivity and service. We expect that our product pricing will continue to evolve, upwards or downwards, depending on a number of factors.'' ''Although we implemented price reductions on many vehicle models across regions in the first quarter, our operating margins reduced at a manageable rate.
We expect ongoing cost reduction of our vehicles, including improved production efficiency at our newest factories and lower logistics costs, and remain focused on operating leverage as we scale. ''We are rapidly growing energy storage production capacity at our Megafactory in Lathrop and we recently announced a new Megafactory in Shanghai. We are also continuing to execute on our product roadmap, including Cybertruck, our next generation vehicle platform, autonomy and other AI enabled products.'' ''Our balance sheet and net income enable us to continue to make these capital expenditures in line with our future growth. In this environment, we believe it makes sense to push forward to ensure we lay a proper foundation for the best possible future,'' the statement concluded.
The stock was down by -2.02% on Wednesday at $180.48 a share before the results were announced. Share price dropped by around -3% in the after-hours as investors digested the earnings report. Stock performance 1 month: -5.38% 3 months: +40.44% Year-to-date: +46.83% 1 year: -44.48% Tesla price targets RBC Capital: $217 Barclays: $230 Wedbush: $225 TD Cowen: $170 Deutsche Bank: $250 Goldman Sachs: $225 Citigroup: $192 Tesla is the 8 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $576.43 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) announced Q1 financial results before the market open in the US today. The company posted solid results beating revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview Founded: June 24, 1902 Headquarters: Target Plaza Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 440,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Brian Cornell (Chairman & CEO) The results Revenue reported at $25.322 billion vs. $25.262 billion expected.
EPS reported at $2.05 per share (down by 4.8% year-over-year) vs. $1.766 per share estimate. CEO commentary "We came into the year clear-eyed about the challenges consumers are facing, and we were determined to build on the trust we've established with our guests. It's required agility and the ability to flex across our multi-category portfolio as we lean into value and the product categories our guests need most right now.
Thanks to the team's dedication, we saw an increase in guest traffic in Q1, with total sales increasing and profitability ahead of expectations," CEO of Target, Brian Cornell said in a statement. "As we look ahead, we now expect shrink will reduce this year's profitability by more than $500 million compared with last year. While there are many potential sources of inventory shrink, theft and organized retail crime are increasingly important drivers of the issue. We are making significant investments in strategies to prevent this from happening in our stores and protect our guests and our team.
We're also focused on managing the financial impact on our business so we can continue to keep our stores open, knowing they create local jobs and offer convenient access to essentials." "For the full year, we are maintaining our full-year financial guidance, based on the expected benefit from efficiency and cost-savings efforts and our team's continued focus on agility, flexibility and retail fundamentals in the face of continued challenges including inventory shrink. At the same time, we will continue making long-term investments in our stores, supply chain and our team, positioning Target for profitable growth and market-share gains in the years ahead," Cornell concluded. The stock was up by around 2% on Wednesday at $160.17 per share.
Stock performance 1 month: -0.76% 3 months: -8.37% Year-to-date: +8.21% 1 year: -0.20% Target price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $185 Raymond James: $190 JP Morgan: $175 Morgan Stanley: $170 Credit Suisse: $170 Baird: $195 Cowen & Co.: $200 Piper Sandler: $220 Barclays: $163 Oppenheimer: $190 Wells Fargo: $142 Target is the 193 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $74.95 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Target Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
American electric vehicle Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) reported the latest financial results for Q1 after the market close in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: June 2009 Headquarters: Irvine, California, United States Number of employees: 14,122 (December 2022) Industry: automotive, energy storage Key people: R. J.
Scaringe (CEO) The results The company reported revenue that fell slightly short of analyst estimates at $661 million (up from $95 million from Q1 2022) vs. $664.396 million expected. Loss per share reported at -$1.25 per share, which was less than -$1.622 loss per share expected. Rivian reiterated that it is on track to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023, which would represent a 100% increase from last year.
Company commentary "In the first quarter of 2023, we produced 9,395 and delivered 7,946 vehicles. This progress was despite our commercial van production line being down for a significant portion of the quarter as we introduced our Enduro motor and LFP technology into the commercial van production process," company said in a letter to shareholders. "We expect to continue to see a variance between production and delivery volumes as we ramp our production facility." "Operating and financial results during the first quarter of 2023 were in-line with our expectations and as a result, we are reaffirming our previously disclosed 2023 guidance of 50,000 total units of production, $(4,300) million in Adjusted EBITDA, and $2,000 million in capital expenditures." "We want to thank our employees, customers, suppliers, partners, communities, and shareholders for their continued support of our vision." The latest results and comments from the company had a positive impact on the share price. The stock was up by around +4% on Wednesday at $14.44 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +1.94% 3 months: -27.96% Year-to-date: -21.51% 1 year: -29.78% Rivian price targets Evercore ISI: $25 Cantor Fitzgerald: $27 Canaccord Genuity: $40 JP Morgan: $23 A. Davidson: $16 Rivian is the 1181 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $13.53 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Rivian Automotive Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
The Reserve Bank of Australia rate meeting today was supposed to be a done deal of another hold in rates, with futures markets pricing in an over 90% chance of that being the outcome. The RBA however, showing their determination to get an inflation rate still well outside their target band instead delivered a 25bp hike after last months pause, surprising the market and seeing a dramatic reaction in the Aussie dollar (pump) and equity markets. (dump) AUDUSD and ASX200 reaction: Adding to this was what was see as a hawkish statement accompanying the decision, helping to cement the original moves which look now to have some legs, likely seeing the AUDUSD break the 0.67 level this session. *RBA RAISES CASH RATE TARGET 25 BASIS POINTS TO 3.85% *RBA: SOME FURTHER TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY MAY BE REQUIRED *RBA SAYS RATE RISE TO HELP ANCHOR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS