Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
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El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
A -3.5% slide in AAPL stock price pre-market is seeing the tech giant looking to continue this weeks sell-off after a Bloomberg report that Chinese authorities plan to broaden iPhone restrictions to a number of state-owned companies and other government-affiliated entities. This comes after Wednesday saw the largest one day drop in AAPL stock in over month after the initial plans for the Chinese ban was reported by the Wall St Journal. The Chinese-US tech war seems to be escalating as China attempts to prop up it’s domestic chip makers in the face of US sanctions and reduce its reliance on Western technology, with AAPL an unwitting victim.
AAPL technical analysis: The pre-market currently is showing an AAPL open price of 176.50 a hefty 3.5% lower from yesterdays close of 182.91, this will see the price open below the key technical level of the 100 Day MA and making 8 day lows. Coming into play as well will be the support level of the August lows, after a down move started by a disappointing earnings report in early August. Another key level to the upside is the resistance level of the earnings gap fill, where a rally in AAPL stalled before this recent China induced sell-off.
As dire as the chart looks at the moment, there is some good news for AAPL bulls with some analysts seeing this sell-off as an overreaction as the Chinese ban will only effect 500,000 out of 45M iPhones after AAPL has seen massive share gains recently of the Chinese smartphone market. If we see support at and a hold of the post earnings August lows, a rebound in AAPL is certainly on the cards.
The recent resilience in AUDUSD, which has seen the pair bounce off and hold stubbornly above the 0.6400 major support level came to a dramatic end in today’s session. Risk aversion, disappointing PMI figures out of China and a hold in rates from the RBA all contributing to a break down in the exchange rate seeing AUDUSD break the recent support levels and hit its lowest level since November 2022. Looking at key levels to watch in AUDUSD the 0.6400 will be key in the short term, this is a major S/R level (as most big figures are in AUDUSD) a retake and hold of this level would cement the recovery in AUDUSD and likely a move higher to re-test the 0.6500 resistance level, however if this level is tested and is confirmed as a new resistance level a further move to the downside to test key support levels is a probability.
These key levels are: Daily trendline support around 0.6320 November 2022 lows 0.6275 Major support at the big 0.6200 figure. Also an RSI under 30, indicating an extreme oversold market, the RSI has been a good indicator of turning points in AUDUSD in the recent past. Key risk events ahead for AUD will be Australian Q2 GDP released on Wednesday, July’s Trade Balance on Thursday and Chinese CPI figures released on Saturday.
AUD traders will need to keep an eye on those key levels over these announcements.
The RBA minutes of their June meeting where another surprise hike had most of the market off side were released today, and they were surprisingly dovish. The board made clear the decision between a hike and hold was finely balanced and seems to suggest further hikes may require a high bar for inflation readings to sway them. AUD reaction was swift with AUDUSD selling off around 50 pips as the sellers finally took charge after a grinding rally upwards in AUD that had made nervous wrecks of the shorts.
The Key level of 0.6800 on the AUDUSD has again come into play, with it being almost impenetrable resistance at the top of the AUDUSD range, now it seems as is quite often the case, turning into major support. Drilling down to the 5 minute chart the buying support at 0.68 is obvious, with a decent bounce and hold of 0.6800 as the RSI reading moved into oversold territory. These technical levels will likely drive price action in todays remaining session, no further news is scheduled for Australia and the US calendar is extremely light after their long weekend.
For short term technical traders of the AUDUSD the 0.6800 level is key. Long above, short below while this level remains a major resistance/support level.
In yesterday’s session, the AUDUSD pair experienced a decline of nearly 1%, erasing the gains it had achieved over the past few days. This retracement arrives as the USD displays signs of renewed strength ahead of an upcoming speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Market participants are eagerly awaiting Powell's remarks for to see if he drops any hints on the Fed’s plans.
As anticipation builds for Powell's speech, scheduled for tomorrow, market observers are on high alert for any indications regarding the trajectory of interest rates. They are particularly keen on understanding whether the Fed's rate hikes are done or if further hikes are on the cards. Additionally, the market will scrutinise the language Powell uses, gauging its hawkishness or dovishness to decode the central bank's future strategies.
These cues will aid in forecasting potential rate cuts once inflation subsides to desired levels. Technically, the AUDUSD pair hit a recent low of 0.63642 on August 17th, marking its lowest point since November 2022. There is considerable downside before finding the next significant support level around 0.62.
On the 1-hour timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is edging close to oversold conditions, while there appears to be a minor horizontal support level holding price just above 0.64. Furthermore, the recent breach of a short-term diagonal support trend is worth noting. The market will closely monitor whether this trend can be reestablished over the coming days.
Overall, as the USD gains momentum leading up to Powell's speech, his comments will likely steer the pair's immediate movements.
Apple has had a spectacular start to 2023, locking in 7 consecutive positive months and putting in an increase of 52.16% year to date at its peak. However, August so far isn’t looking as healthy. Despite the positive financial performance beating Q3 earnings expectations, Apple shares are down 8.48% for the start of August.
Profit taking after 7 green months may be a factor in the recent decline, so the coming days will be key to see if this is a short-term fall or the beginning of a longer-term downtrend. From a technical perspective, price has fallen through an upward trend line that begun at the start of 2023. Price appears to have landed at a key support & resistance level around $177-179.
This temporary bounce also lines up almost exactly at the 2022 yearly open price of $177.83, which adds more strength to this support level. Holding this support level is critical for the price, as a failure to do so could potentially lead to further declines, with the next support level likely around $155-157. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart recently touched an oversold level of 30, followed by a slight bounce.
Traders will be watching to see if the two factors of RSI oversold and price at a key support level will be enough to stall the recent decline and potentially be a pivoting point to send price back north.
World’s largest entertainment company The Waly Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) announced second quarter financial results ended April 1, 2023, after the market close on Wall Street on Wednesday. Company overview Founded: October 16, 1923 Headquarters: Team Disney Building, Walt Disney Studios, Burbank, California, United States Number of employees: 220,000 (2022) Industry: media, entertainment Key people: Mark Parker (chairman), Bob Iger (CEO) The results Walt Disney reported revenue of $21.815 billion for the quarter vs. $21.795 billion expected. Revenues were up by 13% vs. same period last year.
Earnings per share fell slightly short of expectations at $0.93 per share (down by 14% year-over-year) vs. $0.933 per share estimate. Disney+ subscribers fell from 161.8 million to 157.8 million in the quarter. It has now lost 6.4 million subscribers over the last two quarters.
Company commentary "We’re pleased with our accomplishments this quarter, including the improved financial performance of our streaming business, which reflect the strategic changes we’ve been making throughout the company to realign Disney for sustained growth and success," Robert A. Iger, CEO of the company said in a statement. "From movies to television, to sports, news, and our theme parks, we continue to deliver for consumers, while establishing a more efficient, coordinated, and streamlined approach to our operations," he concluded. The stock was down by over -8% on Thursday, trading at around $92.66 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: -8.31% 3 months: -8.31% Year-to-date: +6.42% 1 year: -11.36% Walt Disney price targets Morgan Stanley: $120 Wells Fargo: $147 Deutsche Bank: $135 Barclays: $107 Guggenheim: $130 Citigroup: $130 JP Morgan: $135 Credit Suisse: $133 Bank of America: $135 Walt Disney is the 63 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $170.34 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Waly Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Waly Disney Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, MarketBeat