Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) announced third quarter fiscal 2023 before the opening bell in the US on Friday. World’s largest consumer goods company beat both revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter, sending the stock higher. Company overview Founded: October 31, 1837 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 101,000 (2021) Industry: Consumer goods Key people: David S.
Taylor (Executive Chairman), Jon R. Moeller (President and CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $20.1 billion vs. $19.28 billion expected. EPS reported at $1.37 per share vs. analyst estimate of $1.323 per share.
CEO commentary ''We delivered strong results in the third quarter of fiscal year 2023 in what continues to be a very difficult cost and operating environment,'' Jon Moeller, CEO of Procter & Gamble said about the latest results in a press release. ''Our team’s strong execution of our strategies and our progress through three quarters enable us to raise our fiscal year outlook for sales growth and cash return to shareowners and maintain our guidance range for EPS growth despite continued cost and foreign exchange headwinds. We remain committed to our integrated strategies of a focused product portfolio of daily use categories where performance drives brand choice, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization structure. These strategies have enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum, and we’re confident they remain the right strategies to deliver balanced growth and value creation going forward,'' he concluded.
The latest results had a positive impact on the stock on Friday. Share price was up by around 3%, trading at around $156.44 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +6.58% 3 months: +9.38% Year-to-date: +3.18% 1 year: -3.02% Procter & Gamble price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $147 Berenberg Bank: $141 Evercore ISI: $160 Wells Fargo: $162 CFRA: $152 Procter & Gamble Company is the 20 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $369.12 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
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Natural Gas price action has had an amazing two years, with the usually pretty boring commodity showing extreme volatility pushing it to all time highs before a dramatic collapse seeing it back where it started in 2020. Like all the energy complex, Oil being a good example, the start of the Covid panic saw wild price fluctuations as traders came to terms with lockdowns and the related slowdowns, followed by unprecedented Central Bank stimulus. But the real push higher in Natural Gas came at the start of the war in Ukraine and the loss of Russian Gas for European suppliers, with fears of a cold winter with a much constrained supply of gas seeing the price spike to all-time highs.
But instead of a long cold gas starved winter the northern hemisphere experienced higher-than-average temperatures which meant the gas supply crunch wasn’t as dire as feared which sent liquefied natural gas prices tumbling to pre covid levels from a record all-time high. With Natural gas back to historical support levels there is a technical and fundamental case for a move higher in the near future. From a technical perspective, on a daily chart we can see that Natural Gas has found strong support since February around the 2.09 level, an historic level it found support at before the pandemic as well, we can also wee a rounding bottom pattern forming on a daily chart, this is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns in technical analysis.
According to a recent interview with Bloomberg by Yukio Kani, the chairman and CEO of Jera Co which is the worlds largest buyer of LNG, he is expecting a price spike again in natural gas this year due to Chinese re-opening demand, unusually war Northern Hemisphere weather increasing energy demand for cooling purposes and increased import capacity in Europe and China. Certainly, a market worth watching going forward!
US technology giant Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) released the latest financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, after the market closed in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: April 4, 1975 Headquarters: Washington, United States Number of employees: 221,000 (2022) Industry: Information technology Key people: Satya Nadella (executive chairman and CEO), Brad Smith (vice chairman and president), Bill Gates (technical adviser) The results Microsoft reported revenue that beat analyst estimates at $52.857 billion (up by 7% year-over-year) vs. $51.019 billion. Earnings per share also topped expectations at $2.45 per share (up by 10% year-over-year) vs. $2.239 per share estimate.
Company commentary Satya Nadella, chairman and CEO of Microsoft commented on the rise of AI and highlighted company’s focus on the software: ''The world's most advanced AI models are coming together with the world's most universal user interface - natural language - to create a new era of computing.'' ''Across the Microsoft Cloud, we are the platform of choice to help customers get the most value out of their digital spend and innovate for this next generation of AI.'' Amy Hood, executive vice president and CFO highlighted Microsoft Cloud’s revenue for the quarter which increased year-over-year: ''Focused execution by our sales teams and partners in this dynamic environment resulted in Microsoft Cloud revenue of $28.5 billion, up 22% (up 25% in constant currency) year-over-year.'' Share of Microsoft were down by -2.25% on Tuesday at $275.33 before the results were announced. The stock rose by around +4% in the after-hours trading as results beat estimates. Stock performance 1 month: +0.07% 3 months: +13.79% Year-to-date: +14.84% 1 year: +1.92% Microsoft price targets Bank of America: $320 Citigroup: $332 Jefferies: $325 Goldman Sachs: $325 Cowen & Co.: $300 Microsoft Corporation is the 3 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $2.050 trillion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
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US food giant The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC) reported Q1 financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Wednesday. The company topped both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Company overview • Founded: July 2, 2015 • Headquarters: Chicago, Illinois and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States • Number of employees: 37,000 (2022) • Industry: Food • Key people: Alex Behring (Chairman), John Cahill (Vice chairman), Miguel Patricio (CEO), Paulo Basilio (CFO) The results Kraft Heinz reported revenue of $6.489 billion vs. $6.394 billion expected.
Revenues were up by 7.3% year-over-year. EPS reported at $0.68 per share (up by 7.9% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $0.597 per share. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share.
CEO commentary "We delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2023, with net sales growth across both our North America and International zones that continues to be fueled by Foodservice, Emerging Markets, and U.S. Retail GROW platforms," Kraft Heinz CEO, Miguel Patricio said in a press release. "I am very proud of the entire Kraft Heinz team as we continue to deliver on what we can control by unlocking efficiencies and reinvesting in our brands and capabilities. Our team's continued focus on executing against the strategy is coming to fruition, but it's not time to declare victory just yet.
We remain committed to advancing our business transformation, and we are confident we have the right strategy in place to win with customers and consumers, and to deliver profitable growth and create value for our stockholders," Patricio concluded. The latest results had a positive impact on the stock. Shares were up by over +4% at $40.95 per share.
Stock performance 1 month: +5.28% 3 months: +1.33% Year-to-date: +0.91% 1 year: -5.17% Kraft Heinz price targets JP Morgan: $44 Mizuho Securities: $50 Berenberg Bank: $39 BNP Paribas: $39 Goldman Sachs: $43 The Kraft Heinz Company is the 318 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $50.46 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Kraft Heinz Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Macrotrends
The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y was released at 6.3%, lower than the market forecast of 6.5% and from the previous data of 6.8%. With inflation growth on a clear downtrend following its peak of 8.4% in January 2023, this is likely to reduce the need for further rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Australian cash rate is currently at 3.60% with the RBA anticipated to keep with the previous decision of holding rates steady next Tuesday (2nd May).
While the RBA has previously indicated that some further tightening may be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target, the decision to keep interest rates at 3.60% or comments regarding a pivot in future decisions could lead to further weakening in the AUDUSD. Following the release of the CPI y/y data, the AUDUSD traded lower, breaking out of the channel, and signaling a possible continuation of the downtrend since February 2023. Additionally, with the Ichimoku cloud acting as a resistance and indicating further downside potential, the AUDUSD could trade down to retest the support level of 0.6565.
Beyond the immediate support level, the next key support level is the previous swing low at the 0.64 price area. This move lower could be driven by a further recovery in strength on the DXY and if the RBA decides to hold interest rates at 3.60%.
The Bank of England (BoE) is due to release its interest rate decision today, with markets expecting a 12th consecutive hike to take interest rates to 4.50%. There has been increasing speculation that the BoE is reaching its terminal rates and could follow the lead of the US FOMC and the ECB in signaling a slowdown or pause on further rate hikes following the decision today. However, inflation in the UK is yet to signal a sustained slowdown, with the recent March Consumer Price Index (CPI) still above 10%.
The UK economy has been performing better than expected this year, which has seen the GBPUSD rise steadily to trade just below the key resistance area of 1.27, which was last tested in May 2022. Any indication that the BoE could potentially pause on monetary tightening or dissent in the voting (expected 7-0-2) on the rate hike could see the GBPUSD come under renewed downward pressure. A bearish divergence (prices rallying to new highs while the oscillator retraces from a peak) has formed at the resistance level and could signal the potential for a reversal to the downside.
This reversal could be confirmed if the GBPUSD continues to trade lower past the 1.2550 price level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the short term. The downside on the GBPUSD could be significant, with the next key support level at 1.2350 which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term.