Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) reported its fourth-quarter earnings results after the closing bell over Wall Street today – surpassing analyst expectations. World’s leading customer relationship management (CRM) company reported revenue of $7.326 billion (an increase of 26% year-over-year) vs. $7.242 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $0.84 a share vs. $0.75 a share expected. ''We had another phenomenal quarter and full-year of financial results,'' Marc Benioff, Chair and Co-CEO of Salesforce said following the latest results. ''As we continue to see tremendous demand from customers, we’re raising our FY23 re venue guidance to $32.1 billion at the high-end of range, with non-GAAP operating margin of 20%, and operating cash flow growth of 22% year-over-year,'' Benioff continued.
Bret Taylor, Co-CEO of Salesforce, also commented on the strong financial results: ''With our customers’ success driving our financial success, we’re generating disciplined, profitable growth at scale quarter after quarter.'' ''Our Customer 360 platform has never been more strategic or relevant in driving the growth and resilience of our customers around the world.'' Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) Share price of Salesforce was little changed at the end of the trading day on Wall Street Tuesday, down by 0.78% at $208.36 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -10.01% 3 Month: -26.69% Year-to-date: -17.80% 1 Year: -2.15% Salesforce.com Inc. is the 51 st largest company in the world with total market cap of $205.75 billion. You can trade Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Salesforce.com Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap
Salesforce the worlds #1 customer relationship management (CRM) platform has just announced record fourth quarter and full fiscal 2022 results exceeding expectations. The pandemic-led shift to hybrid work has kept up a strong demand for its cloud-based software. Total fourth quarter revenue was $7.33 billion, an increase of 26% year over year, and 27% in constant currency.
Salesforce’s subscription and support revenue for the fourth quarter also rose 24.7% to $6.83 Billion. “We had another phenomenal quarter and full-year of financial results,” said Marc Benioff, Chair and Co-CEO of Salesforce. With our customers’ success driving our financial success, we’re generating disciplined, profitable growth at scale quarter after quarter,” said Bret Taylor, Co-CEO of Salesforce. “Our Customer 360 platform has never been more strategic or relevant in driving the growth and resilience of our customers around the world.” Salesforce has also been working to integrate Slack after its $27.7 billion purchase of the instant messaging platform, as well as adding products in a bid to sell more tools to existing customers. Analysts see a lot of room to increase sales of the company’s flagship software that lets businesses manage and interact with customers.
Salesforce believes the software market can grow double digits over the next several years, as companies across the globe continue to have conversations about facilitating hybrid and remote work models. Salesforce has not slowed down Slack’s roadmap, with the platform launching Slack Huddles and Clips in the second half of 2021. Salesforce said it expects $1.5 billion in sales form Slack in its fiscal year 2023.
Salesforce’s stock price has been on a downhill ride in the past several months, falling more than 30% from it’s November record high of over $310. Shares have recently increased over 4% and are currently trading at $209.65. Salesforce (CRM) Salesforce.com Inc. is the 51 st largest company in the world with total market cap of $205.75 billion Gavin Patterson the Chief Revenue Office said the global sanctions against Russia arising out of the war with Ukraine will have “minimal impact” on Salesforce’s business and haven’t forced the company to take any actions.
You can trade Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Reuters, Yahoo Finance, itnews
In the midst of the Russian, Ukraine crisis, there are huge ramifications that affect us all in the global market. Energy is a critically important export. Russian oil and gas exports make up a fifth of Russia's economy and half of its earnings from exports.
The country is the European Union's biggest oil trading partner, according to the latest data from Eurostat. Russia also ranks 5 th in the world for oil consumption, accounting for about 3.7% of the world's total consumption of 97,103,871 barrels per day. They are also ranked 3 rd in oil production, which is the most important factor when it comes to costs, sitting close to the oil powerhouses of United States and Saudi Arabia.
They are also some way ahead of China, who sits in 4 th lagging behind Russia by a wide margin of 6 million barrels per day (Fig.1). As you can imagine any disruption to any country in this list on a normal day, would trigger a price movement. So a war and subsequent sanctions on a country who controls so much consumption and production of the precious liquid would make more than a ripple.
Global benchmark April Brent crude climbed $3.06, or 3.1%, to end at $100.99 a barrel. The contract, which expired at the end of the session, settled at its highest since September 2014, posting a gain of 10.7% for the month. West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $4.13, or 4.5%, to settle at $95.72 a barrel.
The front-month contract finished at the highest since August 2014, up 8.6% for the month, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Latest Price Action Over the last few days, we have seen Oil prices finished higher each closing day, a sharp increase over night of 9.72% to start today’s session at $106.33 (Fig.2). Fig. 2 WTI Oil followed suit and had a jump of 11.5%, a sharp increase over night to start today’s session at $106.75 (Fig.3).
Fig. 3 The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. and other major oil-consuming countries were weighing the release of 70 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles in response to surging crude prices. This is to try to stabilize the oil prices and make up the supply that Russia would normally deliver pre sanctions. It’s important to tread carefully when trading assets such as these commodities, which are driven by Geopolitics, unforeseen supply and demand levels and corporate institutions around the world who have their own agendas in mind when thinking of their bottom line.
Profits. Sources: QUARTZ, worldometers.info, The Wall Street Journal, Tradingview.
All prices in this article will be in USD unless otherwise stated. Rio Tinto Group is an Anglo-Australian multinational and the world's second-largest metals and mining corporation, behind BHP, producing iron ore, copper, diamonds, gold and uranium. Rio Tinto made history last week by posting the second biggest profit in Australian corporate history, the biggest belonging to BHP.
They have decided to reward their shareholders with Australia’s biggest ever dividend worth $16.8 billion, which is roughly $23 billion AUD. The $21.4 billion of underlying earnings for 2021 was the biggest in all of Rio Tinto’s 149 year history. The achievement has allowed a dividend payment of $4.79 per share.
The final and special dividends took Rio Tinto’s total dividends for the year to a record-breaking $10.40 per share. The total dividends paid by Rio Tinto for the year is almost doubled the previous year’s $5.57. The greatest profit recorded by an Australian company was BHP.
They set this record in 2011 with a recorded $21.68 billion in underlying profit. Comparing both companies, BHP’s record profit was when the Australian dollar was much stronger than today. This means the profit announced by Rio Tinto would be much bigger than BHP, in Australian dollars, $22.5 billion vs $23 billion AUD.
This does not take into account inflation. Rio Tinto’s great result was largely attributed to its most important commodity, iron ore. However, the decade high prices for copper and aluminium have also bolstered their profits.
The shareholder returns unleashed by Rio Tinto over the past four years rank as the four biggest in the company’s history, meaning shareholders in the miner are enjoying a golden era of returns. The “golden era” was initially built on the proceeds of asset divestments, however, Australian mining companies have been fortunate due to rival mining companies in Brazil suffering massive dam failures in 2019. Australia was able to capitalise on the weak iron ore supply in the aftermath.
The strong operating environment for mining companies like Rio Tinto has only continued since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic had prompted governments to announce stimulus spending on infrastructure which drove strong demand for the raw materials which were produced by the likes of Rio Tinto and BHP. Most of Rio’s record setting dividend will be paid to shareholders outside of Australia; the company’s biggest shareholder is Chinese state-owned entity Chinalco while most investors own the stock through the London Stock Exchange.
All in all, the mining industry is currently experiencing a strong year. Rio Tinto, being one of the biggest players, has set the benchmark for other companies in the industry. The strong start to the year is a good indication as to where the industry is going.
If you would like to take this opportunity to invest in Rio Tinto Group and don’t already have a trading account, you can register for a Shares or Shares CFD account at GO Markets. Sources: ASX, Wikipedia, AFR.
Results are in – NVIDIA reports NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) announced its second quarter results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. The US technology giant reported revenue that exceeded analyst expectations at $6.704 billion for the quarter vs. estimate of $6.699 billion. Earnings per share reported at $0.51 per share, narrowly beating estimate of $0.50 per share for the second quarter. ''We are navigating our supply chain transitions in a challenging macro environment and we will get through this,'' founder and CEO of NVIDIA, Jensen Huang said in a statement following the latest results. ''Accelerated computing and AI, the pioneering work of our company, are transforming industries.
Automotive is becoming a tech industry and is on track to be our next billion-dollar business. Advances in AI are driving our Data Center business while accelerating breakthroughs in fields from drug discovery to climate science to robotics.'' ''I look forward to next month’s GTC conference, where we will share new advances in RTX, as well as breakthroughs in AI and the metaverse, the next evolution of the internet. Join us,'' Huang added.
NVIDA expects revenue of around $5.9 billion for the third quarter, which is short of analyst estimate of $6.9 billion for the quarter. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) chart Shares of NVIDIA were little changed on Wednesday, up by 0.24% at $172.12. The stock fell in the after-hours by around 3% on future outlook.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -3.19% 3 months +1.46% Year-to-date -41.44% 1 year -22.47% NVIDIA price targets Truist Securities $216 Mizuho $250 Raymond James $240 Barclays $200 Deutsche Bank $175 Citigroup $285 Keybanc $230 NVIDIA Corporation is the 13 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $429.17 billion. You can trade NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NVIDIA Corporation, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA) has increased the Country’s cash rate by half a percent to combat the rising inflation in its latest cash rate change. The increase was in line with most analyst’s expectations as the RBA continues to fight inflation and bring it back into the 2-3% range. The current forecast from the RBA suggests that CPI inflation will peak near 7.75% over 2022, before falling to 4% during 2023, and then settling at 3% in 2024.
A key source of concern for the RBA was and continues to be the current spending habits of Australian households. Importantly, as the cost of goods has risen due to inflation, pressure has built on household budgets and their spending habits. This has been caused by both the supply chain issues and the increased cash rate.
Furthermore, consumer confidence has fallen, and “housing prices are declining after the large increases in recent years.” This shows how interest rate hikes are impacting the lives of Australians and their spending habits. Another important factor at play is the tightening of the job market. The unemployment rate dropped in June to 3.5%, the lowest rate in 50 years, and job vacancies and job advertisements continue to be at high levels.
However, the bank does not expect to be able to hold these levels and predict the rate of unemployment will reach 4% by the end of 2024 as a result of the current slowing economic growth. In response to the announcement, the ASX200 responded positively as investors saw the announcement as bullish, shooting up 0.38% in the 30 minutes after the announcement. Conversely, the AUDUSD dropped back below $0.70 dropping to $0.6970 in the 30 minutes immediately after the announcement.
The RBA will later this week further update the market with its monetary policy statement which will provide further clarity on its decision-making and the current sentiment.