September is stacked: jobs, inflation and the Fed all hit at once. Here are the dates markets will be watching.
As of 28 August 2026, US markets are heading into September focused on a dense run of macro data and the next Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, while inflation remains elevated relative to the Fed's 2% longer-run goal.
The target federal funds rate remains at 3.50% to 3.75%. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting takes place from 15 to 16 September 2026, with the policy decision released on 16 September US Eastern Time, or 17 September Australian Eastern Standard Time. Meanwhile, Brent crude at around US$89.70 per barrel adds another variable for consumer energy costs.
That leaves markets weighing 2 central questions at once: Is economic growth cooling enough to help bring price pressures back towards target and can it do so without a sharper slowdown in employment?
01 Growth: business activity and demand
September growth figures will test whether business activity is undergoing a moderate rebalancing or a broader loss of momentum. Survey data from the manufacturing and services sectors offer early signals of monthly business conditions. Later in the month, the third estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) will update the picture for the second quarter (Q2).
The central issue is not simply whether expansion continues, but whether business spending and consumer demand hold up under current interest rate settings.
ISM manufacturing PMI
ISM services PMI
Retail sales
Q2 GDP third estimate
- Manufacturing trajectory: Whether factory activity indicates expansion or ongoing contraction.
- Services resilience: Whether services activity maintains its advantage relative to manufacturing.
- Consumer elasticity: How household consumption responds to persistent borrowing costs.
- GDP revisions: Whether adjustments alter the underlying broad growth narrative.
Stronger activity data may support the US dollar and cyclical equity indices. However, resilient demand could also lift Treasury yields if expectations for rate cuts recede. Conversely, softer growth data may lower yields and weigh on the US dollar. Equities could gain support if yields fall, although sharper demand weakness may raise broader growth concerns. Market participants can follow scheduled releases on the GO Markets economic calendar.
Follow US market drivers through September
Keep key economic releases, policy signals and market reactions in view as the month develops.
02 Labour: payrolls and employment data
Labour market conditions remain important to Fed policy assessments, with employment and wage trends considered alongside inflation and growth. Hiring activity has moderated in recent months, while overall labour market conditions have remained relatively stable.
The August non-farm payrolls (NFP) report will provide an important update on whether labour demand is rebalancing gradually or slowing more quickly.
ADP National Employment Report
August NFP and unemployment report
August job openings
- Net payroll additions: Headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) job gains relative to consensus expectations.
- Unemployment rate: Shifts in overall unemployment and labour force participation rates.
- Hourly earnings: Growth in average hourly earnings as a measure of wage pressures.
- Job vacancy ratio: Total job openings per unemployed worker to assess labour market tightness.
Stronger than expected NFP data may lift Treasury yields and support the US dollar if markets see less scope for policy easing. Rate-sensitive equities may face pressure in that scenario. Conversely, weaker than expected payroll growth could lower yields and weigh on the US dollar if markets bring forward expectations for policy easing. Payroll growth consistent with a stable labour market could support risk sentiment, depending on the accompanying unemployment and wage data.
03 Inflation: key price data
Inflation remains an important constraint on Fed flexibility when evaluating potential policy adjustments. Price pressures have eased from earlier peaks, but inflation remains above the Fed's 2% longer-run goal. Persistently firm core components may keep attention on whether disinflation is continuing.
September contains 3 major inflation updates that may help indicate whether price pressures are easing across consumer, producer and personal consumption measures.
Consumer price index (CPI)
Producer price index (PPI)
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index
- Core trend: Monthly changes in core CPI and core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy.
- Services disinflation: Price trends across housing, medical care and transport services.
- Producer pass-through: Extent to which wholesale costs transfer to consumer prices.
- PCE trend: How headline and core PCE inflation are tracking relative to the Fed's 2% longer-run goal.
Cooling inflation data may lower Treasury yields, weigh on the US dollar and support gold if real interest rate expectations ease. Conversely, sticky or accelerating monthly inflation could lift Treasury yields and support the US dollar. That scenario may place pressure on gold and rate-sensitive assets. Forex markets may be sensitive to core inflation data as rate expectations adjust.
04 Other factors: policy, trade and geopolitics
Economic data will not be the only catalyst for asset price movements during September. Central bank guidance, debt auctions and geopolitical developments may also play a role.
The FOMC meeting from 15 to 16 September 2026 is a major policy event for the month. The policy decision is due on 16 September, alongside updated economic projections and the dot plot.
Crude oil price shifts linked to supply logistics and international trade policy could also influence production costs. Corporate commentary ahead of third quarter (Q3) earnings may offer additional insight into profit margins. For Australian market context, see the ASX reporting season calendar and ASX reporting season explainer.
- FOMC meeting on 15 to 16 September: Policy decision on 16 September, updated projections and press conference guidance.
- Treasury auctions: Investor demand during government debt sales to gauge fixed-income appetite.
- Energy markets: Crude price volatility affecting headline inflation expectations.
- Corporate guidance: Pre-announcements from major listed companies ahead of Q3 reporting.
- Trade policy: International tariff discussions affecting global supply logistics.
September key watchlist
August NFP report
Employment update scheduled for 4 September 2026.
FOMC policy decision
Policy decision and updated economic projections due on 16 September 2026.
Crude oil volatility
Supply adjustments and energy cost movements.
Pre-reporting corporate updates
Corporate margin commentary ahead of Q3 earnings season.
Treasury yields and US Dollar Index
10-year Treasury yield levels and US Dollar Index moves.
Policy decision
Scheduled policy announcement on 16 September 2026.
Navigating September's macro catalysts
US markets head into September with growth, employment and inflation indicators pulling in different directions. Key market drivers may shape investor sentiment as policy expectations evolve.
The August labour report on 4 September and CPI release on 11 September are key data points ahead of the FOMC meeting from 15 to 16 September 2026. PCE inflation data on 30 September will provide another major update on price pressures.
Asset pricing may remain highly sensitive to incoming data. Follow upcoming releases through the GO Markets economic calendar and learn more about US index contracts for difference (CFDs).
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