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4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前,他们已经限制了最坏的情况,但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分,伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变,而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击,市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰,而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶(桶)的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡,相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一,约占全球海运石油贸易的30%。
- 这是流量冲击,不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量,而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周,布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击,存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只,减少了约85%,超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火,为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费,如果正式确定,这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业,这反映了人们的观点,即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本,而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品,相当于全球石油消费量的20%和全球海运石油贸易的30%左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日,且剩余产能有限,在最近的升级之前,市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年,平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线,约占全球液化天然气贸易的20%,亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署(IEA)将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点,并指出,即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元,这既反映了物质紧张,也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。

由于流量减慢,油轮处于空转状态
现在,航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道,超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾,而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险,有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计,这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天,或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实,有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误,高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素:这是流量冲击,不是储存问题,停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整,可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30%的阻塞点时,该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内,估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨,燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移,更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去,通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合,可能会增加滞胀环境的风险,使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消,系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重,是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日(约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一)的阻塞点受到损害时,将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能,主要在欧佩克内部,只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线,包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输,只能部分抵消流量的损失,而且通常成本更高,交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前,全球石油流动可能继续受损,风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说,核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。


Nike Inc. (NKE) reported its latest financial results for its fiscal 2022 fourth quarter after the closing bell in the US on Monday. World’s largest sporting goods company topped both revenue and earnings per share estimates. The company reported revenue of $12.234 billion for the quarter vs. $12.061 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $0.90 per share vs. estimate of $0.80 per share. ''NIKE’s results this fiscal year are a testament to the unmatched strength of our brands and our deep connection with consumers," John Donahoe, President and CEO of Nike said in a press release after the results. ''Our competitive advantages, including our pipeline of innovative product and expanding digital leadership, prove that our strategy is working as we create value through our relentless drive to serve the future of sport," Donahoe added. Nike Inc. (NKE) chart Shares of Nike were down by around 2.13% at the end of trading day on Monday at $110.42 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month -4.73% 3 Month -18.03% Year-to-date -33.70% 1 Year -27.47% Nike price targets Cowen & Co. $133 Deutsche Bank $152 Credit Suisse $130 Citigroup $123 Baird $150 UBS $168 Morgan Stanley $159 HSBC $132 Wells Fargo $150 Nike Inc. is the 61 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $173.90 billion.
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The New Zealand economy took a hit in the first quarter as Covid 19 ran rampant and interest rates rose as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased interest rates to combat inflation. The contraction was exaggerated as imports were reduced. Growth across the country was slowed.
Production based output or the GDP fell by 0.2% which was below the analyst’s expectation of a 0.6% increase. The figure was also a substantial level below the 3.0% rise seen in the December quarter. Primary industries drove the decrease.
Lower output in the food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing industry as well as the agriculture, forestry and fishing industries were key reason for the reduction in growth. Housing prices dropped as the rising interest rates began to hit mortgage holders in the hip pocket. Prices dropped 5.6% in the three months to May.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand also tempered its expectations predicting a modest 0.7% increase for the March quarter. New Zealand spent much of the quarter fighting the Omicron spread of Covid-19. It was the real time the small island country had to deal with a significant covid outbreak.
Despite this, domestic travel data remained strong. The country also in a bid to help the travel industry, opened it borders to international visitors. The Reserve Bank has already raised interest rates five times since October in a bid to stem inflation from getting worse.
The Bank also made it clear that slowing down inflation would take priority over protecting the economy against a recession. The New Zealand dollar dropped on the news before rallying and is currently buying 0.63 USD. The NZD recovered after the drop before settling.
The NZD.USD pair has been in a downward trend since March 2021. It has seen a recent test of the 2-year lows.

Energy prices have continued to soar with the US indices struggling again as the West debates placing more sanctions on Russia. The Nasdaq closed 3.62% down overnight and is officially in a Bear market after falling 20% since the November 2021 highs. The Dow Jones finished down 2.37% and has also confirmed a correction as it closed down 10% from the January highs.
The S&P 500 was also down 2.95%. In Europe the FTSE finished flat, recovering most of the morning losses to end the day down 0.40% overall. The DAX also worked back some of its morning losses but still closed the day down 1.98%.
Commodities continue to boom with the threats of an embargo on Russian supplies driving the market sentiment. Oil rose to a 14 year high touching $139 a barrel for Brent Crude. However, the price did fall back to the $130 level as the day wore on.
Natural gas also rocketed up 42% compared to Friday over the concerns of a shortfall if Russia were to cut off its supply to Western Europe. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson outlined that the West may need to increase Oil and Gas production reduce the reliance on Russia and enable sanctions to be implemented. The increase in supply pressure, especially in the short term may see the volatility continue.
Nickel was the largest mover overnight rising an incredible 73%. Nickel miners and commodity plays on the ASX may continue to be relevant as the volatility surrounding commodities continues. Bitcoin is trading relatively flat at the moment with BTC/USD at $38,027 at 10.00 pm GMT.
Ethereum is trading at 1.94% lower at $2500 at 10.00 GMT. FOREX The GBP/USD fell sharply finishing down 1.01% as investors continue moving to safe-haven currencies. The EUR/USD performed marginally better dropping 0.7%.
The NZD and AUD, which had been performing strongly in the prior week also tapered against both the USD and EUR. Gold continued to show strength as it hovers just below the $2000 per ounce level. The impact of the CPI figures that will be out on Friday may further impact gold prices.

NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its first quarter financial results before the market open in the US on Thursday. The Chinese electric vehicle maker reported revenue of $1.563 billion in the first quarter (up by 24.2% year-over-year), topping analyst estimate of $1.561 billion. Loss per share reported at -$0.12 per share, lower than the -$0.15 loss per share expected.
The company delivered a total of 25,768 vehicles in Q1 2022, an 28.5% increase vs. Q1 2021. William Bin Li, founder, chairman and CEO of the EV company commented on NIO’s performance in Q1: ''We set new record-high quarterly deliveries of 25,768 vehicles in the first quarter of 2022, and hit the milestone of exceeding 200,000 vehicle deliveries in May within four years since our first delivery.'' "Despite the volatilities of supply chain and the challenges in vehicle delivery resulting from the recent COVID-19 resurgence, we witnessed robust demand for our complementary products and achieved an all-time high order inflow in May 2022.
On April 29, 2022, the first batch of tooling trial builds of the ET5 rolled off the production line at the new manufacturing plant at NeoPark in Hefei. We expect to start delivery of the ET5 in September 2022. In addition, we will further enhance our product offering by introducing the ES7, a new mid-to-large five-seater SUV based on NIO Technology 2.0 (NT2.0), in June and expect to start its delivery in late August," Li added.
The company expects deliveries of between 23,000 to 25,000 in Q2 and revenue of between $1.473 billion and $1.591 billion. NIO Inc. chart Shares of NIO fell by around 6% during the trading day on Thursday at $18.93 per share despite beating analyst estimates for Q1, mainly due to future outlook for Q2. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +44.35% 3 Month +42% Year-to-date -40.31% 1 Year -55.78% NIO price targets B of A Securities $26 UBS $32 Mizuho $60 Morgan Stanley $34 Barclays $34 Deutsche Bank $70 Goldman Sachs $56 NIO is the 14 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $31.54 billion.
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US and European equity markets remained volatile as fighting between Russian and Ukraine forces continued and negotiation talks failed to result in any progress. Both parties however have committed to another round of discussions. The VIX, Wall Street’s volatility measure surged 12% to 30 indicating the increased fear investors are feeling from the ongoing situation.
The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 both closed down 0.5% and 0.25% respectively, the Nasdaq finished up 0.4% as tech and growth stocks outperformed. In Europe, the FTSE finished down 0.4% and the DAX 0.7%. Not surprisingly, with SWIFT bans and other banking sanctions levied against Russia, the financial sector was the poorest performer overnight in the USA.
Brent Crude oil has ticked back over to $101.10USD as a consequence of the conflict and is still expected to rise further. An OPEC meeting is scheduled for tomorrow however there is no expectation of a significant change. Gold hasn’t seen much change and is still hovering around $1,908USD.
The price has remained stable after bouncing from its recent highs. The RBA is meeting today at 2.30 pm to discuss interest rates and their outlook of the Australian economy, however, no change is expected as they deal with the current sentiment relating to the Russia and Ukraine crisis. Inflation is still the key concern, though a mild Wage Price Index figure last week has given the RBA some room to continue the mostly dovish tone seen at recent meetings.
Above expected retail figures came out yesterday increasing 1.8% and beating most expectations. The USA federal reserve is also indicating that it may be more cautious in tackling inflation through interest rates although they are still expected to increase rates in March with a 25 bp rate rise fully priced in by the market. On the back of the retail figures and improving risk sentiment, the AUD/USD was up 1.46% from the session lows and could be one to watch for the day.
The EUR/JPY was down 1.3% indicating a move out of the Euro to safe haven currencies on the back of the continuing conflict. In cryptos, Bitcoin was a standout pushing up 11.18% to be trading at 41,933.30USD as of 9.00 pm GMT. This jump in price and increase in volume is likely due to many users in Russia moving to attentive payment as the Ruble continues to dive.


The US stock market saw one of its best days in months, as speculation swirled that the 'bottom' may be in. The indices gained their momentum from better-than-expected earnings and a weakening of the USD, with the USDX dropping to $106.58. With more earnings still to come better than expected results may see the S&P500 and markets break out of their current downtrend.
The Nasdaq ended the trading session up 3.38%, the Dow Jones rose 2.43% and the S&P500 moved 2.78% higher. This should lead to a positive start on the ASX with the XJO futures up 83.2 points or 1.25% at 9:01, Australian Eastern Standard time. The commodity markets saw a solid rebound with Gold and Oil both pushing back from recent losses.
Brent is now back over $100.00 a barrel whilst Gold is hovering above $1700. The news in the foreign exchange market was the drop in the USD, which also saw strength coming into the AUD. The AUDUSD was able to test its recent resistance point at $0.6860 and is now testing the $0.6900 level.
The EUR moved similarly to the AUD also moving up against the USD. There is growing sentiment that ECB members could discuss a 25 or 50 basis point hike at their upcoming meeting. Furthermore, the EU has indicated it will soften sanctions on Russia, and Russian gas giant Gazprom will resume its gas provision to the EU on July 21.
Later today, the market can expect updates from the Reserve Bank of Australia as Governor Lowe speaks and UK CPI figures for the year will be announced as well. Cryptocurrencies saw a nice breakout with the Bitcoin pushing above 24,000 USD as the market pushed the money back into risk assets. The cryptocurrency broke out of a month-long consolidation in a show of strength.
Ethereum followed suit rising almost 6%.
