市場新聞與洞察

Phillip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA) has issued an apology to the Australian public in his most recent statement. Lowe specifically apologised for providing guidance in 2020 and 2021 that the official cash would only rise in 2024. Instead, rate rises began earlier this year and rises have occurred in 7 straight months.

During that time many Australians took out home with the understanding of frozen rates at least until 2024. With inflation set to worsen and rise beyond 8% by the end of the year and the 30-day Interbank Cash rate futures pointing to a maximum cash rate of 3.865% by October next year it is not expected to get easier for Australian households. Furthermore, with the cost of living increasing, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Australians to afford their mortgages.

The apology from Lowe, whilst sincere does little to alleviate the short-term pain that will be felt by many families who have taken out home loans in the prior 12-18 months. The importance of the statements made by Lowe today are that the RBA will now adjust its messaging to the public to regain trust. Lowe attempted to justify the communication strategy at the time by outlining the exceptionality of the Pandemic and the circumstances that it brought, stating that, “It was dire times, and we decided that we would do everything we could.” Currently, the Australian dollar is $0.66 after bottoming at $0.62. as the USD has weakened and the Federals Reserve has become more open to lowering rates the AUD has recovered and regained some momentum.

The question remains, can the RBA build up trust with the public as it pushes forward in its fight against inflation or has faith in the Country’s central bank been diminished.

The USDCHF has just reached a significant support zone providing a potential entry for a low-risk high return trade. In recent weeks the USD has an aggressive pulled back on the back of weaker then expected inflation figures. This has benefited the CHF and most other non-USD currencies as expectations of a potential pivot grow and money moves away from the Greenback.

From a technical perspective the price of the USDCHF has fallen to its lowest price since August 2022. The price has also largely been in a ranging pattern since 2010 between 1.03436 0.8741. In addition, besides the Covid years, the price has been in a tighter range between 0.94 and 1.03.

The current price zone has been a really important area of support and in the most recent test of this area, in August the price bounced quite strongly. Interestingly, during times of higher market volatility the price extends its lower bound of the range from 0.94 to 0.87. For example, the prices extended its range during the GFC and the Covid pandemic.

However, generally, the pair trades in the tighter range. Therefore, as it is arguable if the current market conditions represent volatility as sinister as the GFC or the Pandemic this current price action lends itself to a potential bounce over a further sell off. The bounce is also supported by the RSI which is not just oversold but showing the potential for a divergence.

With the price at an ideal entry point, it allows for a high potential risk reward trade. The trade’s target is 1.0075 as seen on the price chart.

Shares of Deere rise as financial results exceed expectations Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) announced financial results on Wednesday for the fourth quarter that ended on October 30, 2022. The US manufacturer of farm machinery and industrial equipment reported revenue of $15.536 billion for the quarter, which was above analyst forecast of $13.443 billion. Earnings per share reported at $7.44 per share vs. $7.112 per share expected. ''Deere’s strong performance for both the fourth quarter and full year is a tribute to our dedicated team of employees, dealers, and suppliers throughout the world,'' John C.

May, CEO of the company said in a statement. ''We’re proud of their extraordinary efforts to overcome supply-chain constraints, increase factory production, and deliver products to our customers,'' he added. The stock was up by around 5% on Wednesday, trading at $441.33. Stock performance 1 month: +12.79% 3 month: +69% Year-to-date: +67% 1 year: +94% Deere & Company price targets Deutsche Bank: $374 Goldman Sachs: $420 Argus Research: $420 Citigroup: $425 Morgan Stanley: $424 Credit Suisse: $447 Wells Fargo: $423 Oppenheimer: $365 Jefferies: $400 JP Morgan: $325 Deere & Company is the 84 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $132.90 billion.

You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Deere & Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Medtronic posts mixed results Medtronic Plc (NYSE: MDT) reported latest financial results for its second quarter of fiscal year 2023, which ended October 28, 2022 on Tuesday. The medical technology company posted mixed results for the quarter. Revenue reported at $7.585 billion (down 3% year-over-year) vs. $7.698 billion expected.

Earnings per share reported at $1.30 per share (down by 2% year-over-year) vs. $1.277 per share estimate. "Slower than predicted procedure and supply recovery drove revenue below our expectations this quarter. We continue to take decisive actions to improve the overall performance of the company, including streamlining our organizational structure, strengthening our supply chain, driving a performance culture, and strategically allocating capital to support our best growth opportunities with the investments they deserve," Geoff Martha, CEO of the company said in press release. "We're seeing the benefit of these changes – along with new incentives and strong execution – in certain businesses, and we're focused on ensuring these efforts translate into improved performance across the company. Looking ahead, we're confident we have a clear path to delivering durable growth and increased shareholder value," Martha concluded.

The stock was down by around 5% on Tuesday at $77.74 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -2.62% 3 month: -8.79% Year-to-date: -20.45% 1 year: -27.42% Medtronic price targets Barclays: $90 Truist Securities: $89 Mizuho: $100 Jefferies: $87 Morgan Stanley: $97 RBC Capital: $110 Wells Fargo: $96 Stifel: $105 Medtronic is the 114 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $109.37 billion. You can trade Medtronic Plc (NYSE: MDT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: Medtronic Plc, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

As the week comes to an end, many cryptocurrency investors grow increasingly nervous. This emotional sentiment has resulted in bitcoin’s new 18 month’s low price, since December 2020. It has also caused a well known crypto company, Celsius, to suspend client’s withdrawals.

Bitcoin started the week at $27,000 USD which was a 10% decrease from Friday’s closing price of around $30,000 USD. Since the opening of the week, it has dropped another 23% to almost $20,000 USD. This is almost a 70% decline from last October’s peak of nearly $69,000 USD.

This sharp decline also mirrored the bearish sentiment across other risk assets. US equities closed 2.9% lower on Friday and continued to decrease as the week proceeded. The 2% decline of the US equity futures would have also been an indicator of how the US equities markets would be performing.

The pressure on risk assets comes after US consumer prices soared 8.6 per cent in May from the same month a year earlier, more than economists anticipated and the highest reading since 1981. The increasing selling pressure across the cryptocurrencies scene prompted Celsius to put a halt on client’s withdrawals from their cryptocurrency accounts. This is not a good sign for the four-year-old start-up company.

Celsius offers an array of services, including their ‘Swap’ tool. This service allows users to exchange their cryptocurrencies for stablecoins that are linked to fiat currencies, such as the USD. The company’s reasoning for the halt was to “stabilise liquidity and operations while we take steps to preserve and protect assets”, and that it will look to resume activity as soon as possible.

Celsius’ decision has come at a bad time as weeks earlier, Terra, a popular stable coin linked to the US dollar, had collapsed alongside its sister token Luna. This collapse had wiped out tens of billions of dollars in market value for many investors. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is on a decline.

This is because the biggest coin, bitcoin, is currently trending downwards and this would also translate across all other alt-coins. Source: GO Markets MT5, Celsius, TradingView, Financial Times, AFR

Bitcoin has recently tested the lows of its price range that it reached in the immediate aftermath of the FTX crisis. A long opportunity has been brought about after price bounced off these lows near $15,863. The hourly chart shows a potential good risk reward entry.

The trigger for the entry is not just the fact that the price has bounced off the support zone but is also the strong bullish candle stick at the support level. The selling was absorbed at the support zone by the buyers and could not close below the wicks of either candle as seen by the length of the wicks. Furthermore, the above average volume for these candles indicated that the selling was exhausted and that the buyers were willing to take on the supply.

For this bounce to continue, a strong green candle that closes above the opening price of most recent red candlestick will hopefully support the breakout at $16,204. As seen on the chart, an obvious target is the $17,000 level which is the top of the recent price range.