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4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前,他们已经限制了最坏的情况,但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分,伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变,而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击,市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰,而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶(桶)的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡,相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一,约占全球海运石油贸易的30%。
- 这是流量冲击,不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量,而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周,布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击,存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只,减少了约85%,超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火,为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费,如果正式确定,这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业,这反映了人们的观点,即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本,而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品,相当于全球石油消费量的20%和全球海运石油贸易的30%左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日,且剩余产能有限,在最近的升级之前,市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年,平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线,约占全球液化天然气贸易的20%,亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署(IEA)将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点,并指出,即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元,这既反映了物质紧张,也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。

由于流量减慢,油轮处于空转状态
现在,航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道,超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾,而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险,有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计,这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天,或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实,有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误,高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素:这是流量冲击,不是储存问题,停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整,可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30%的阻塞点时,该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内,估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨,燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移,更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去,通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合,可能会增加滞胀环境的风险,使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消,系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重,是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日(约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一)的阻塞点受到损害时,将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能,主要在欧佩克内部,只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线,包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输,只能部分抵消流量的损失,而且通常成本更高,交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前,全球石油流动可能继续受损,风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说,核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。


World’s largest automaker, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), reported Q1 financial results after market close in the US on Wednesday. Elon Musk’s company posted mixed results for the quarter. Let’s take a closer look at how it performed.
Company overview Founded: July 1, 2003 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of branches: 764 retail stores/galleries and service centers (2022) Number of employees: 127,855 (2022) Industry: Automotive, renewable energy, artificial intelligence Key people: Elon Musk (CEO), Robyn Denholm (chair) The results Tesla reported revenue that missed analyst estimate at $23.329 billion vs. $23.596 billion expected. Revenues were up by 24% compared to Q1 2022. Earnings per share reported at $0.85 per share (down by -21% year-over-year) vs. $0.846 per share estimate.
The automaker produced 440,808 and delivered 422,875 cars in Q1, up by 44% and 36% year-over-year, respectively. Company commentary ''In the current macroeconomic environment, we see this year as a unique opportunity for Tesla. As many carmakers are working through challenges with the unit economics of their EV programs, we aim to leverage our position as a cost leader.
We are focused on rapidly growing production, investments in autonomy and vehicle software, and remaining on track with our growth investment,'' Tesla said in a letter to shareholders. The company also commented on its pricing strategy: ''Our near-term pricing strategy considers a long-term view on per vehicle profitability given the potential lifetime value of a Tesla vehicle through autonomy, supercharging, connectivity and service. We expect that our product pricing will continue to evolve, upwards or downwards, depending on a number of factors.'' ''Although we implemented price reductions on many vehicle models across regions in the first quarter, our operating margins reduced at a manageable rate.
We expect ongoing cost reduction of our vehicles, including improved production efficiency at our newest factories and lower logistics costs, and remain focused on operating leverage as we scale. ''We are rapidly growing energy storage production capacity at our Megafactory in Lathrop and we recently announced a new Megafactory in Shanghai. We are also continuing to execute on our product roadmap, including Cybertruck, our next generation vehicle platform, autonomy and other AI enabled products.'' ''Our balance sheet and net income enable us to continue to make these capital expenditures in line with our future growth. In this environment, we believe it makes sense to push forward to ensure we lay a proper foundation for the best possible future,'' the statement concluded.
The stock was down by -2.02% on Wednesday at $180.48 a share before the results were announced. Share price dropped by around -3% in the after-hours as investors digested the earnings report. Stock performance 1 month: -5.38% 3 months: +40.44% Year-to-date: +46.83% 1 year: -44.48% Tesla price targets RBC Capital: $217 Barclays: $230 Wedbush: $225 TD Cowen: $170 Deutsche Bank: $250 Goldman Sachs: $225 Citigroup: $192 Tesla is the 8 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $576.43 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) announced Q1 financial results before the market open in the US today. The company posted solid results beating revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview Founded: June 24, 1902 Headquarters: Target Plaza Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 440,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Brian Cornell (Chairman & CEO) The results Revenue reported at $25.322 billion vs. $25.262 billion expected.
EPS reported at $2.05 per share (down by 4.8% year-over-year) vs. $1.766 per share estimate. CEO commentary "We came into the year clear-eyed about the challenges consumers are facing, and we were determined to build on the trust we've established with our guests. It's required agility and the ability to flex across our multi-category portfolio as we lean into value and the product categories our guests need most right now.
Thanks to the team's dedication, we saw an increase in guest traffic in Q1, with total sales increasing and profitability ahead of expectations," CEO of Target, Brian Cornell said in a statement. "As we look ahead, we now expect shrink will reduce this year's profitability by more than $500 million compared with last year. While there are many potential sources of inventory shrink, theft and organized retail crime are increasingly important drivers of the issue. We are making significant investments in strategies to prevent this from happening in our stores and protect our guests and our team.
We're also focused on managing the financial impact on our business so we can continue to keep our stores open, knowing they create local jobs and offer convenient access to essentials." "For the full year, we are maintaining our full-year financial guidance, based on the expected benefit from efficiency and cost-savings efforts and our team's continued focus on agility, flexibility and retail fundamentals in the face of continued challenges including inventory shrink. At the same time, we will continue making long-term investments in our stores, supply chain and our team, positioning Target for profitable growth and market-share gains in the years ahead," Cornell concluded. The stock was up by around 2% on Wednesday at $160.17 per share.
Stock performance 1 month: -0.76% 3 months: -8.37% Year-to-date: +8.21% 1 year: -0.20% Target price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $185 Raymond James: $190 JP Morgan: $175 Morgan Stanley: $170 Credit Suisse: $170 Baird: $195 Cowen & Co.: $200 Piper Sandler: $220 Barclays: $163 Oppenheimer: $190 Wells Fargo: $142 Target is the 193 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $74.95 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Target Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


American electric vehicle Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) reported the latest financial results for Q1 after the market close in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: June 2009 Headquarters: Irvine, California, United States Number of employees: 14,122 (December 2022) Industry: automotive, energy storage Key people: R. J.
Scaringe (CEO) The results The company reported revenue that fell slightly short of analyst estimates at $661 million (up from $95 million from Q1 2022) vs. $664.396 million expected. Loss per share reported at -$1.25 per share, which was less than -$1.622 loss per share expected. Rivian reiterated that it is on track to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023, which would represent a 100% increase from last year.
Company commentary "In the first quarter of 2023, we produced 9,395 and delivered 7,946 vehicles. This progress was despite our commercial van production line being down for a significant portion of the quarter as we introduced our Enduro motor and LFP technology into the commercial van production process," company said in a letter to shareholders. "We expect to continue to see a variance between production and delivery volumes as we ramp our production facility." "Operating and financial results during the first quarter of 2023 were in-line with our expectations and as a result, we are reaffirming our previously disclosed 2023 guidance of 50,000 total units of production, $(4,300) million in Adjusted EBITDA, and $2,000 million in capital expenditures." "We want to thank our employees, customers, suppliers, partners, communities, and shareholders for their continued support of our vision." The latest results and comments from the company had a positive impact on the share price. The stock was up by around +4% on Wednesday at $14.44 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +1.94% 3 months: -27.96% Year-to-date: -21.51% 1 year: -29.78% Rivian price targets Evercore ISI: $25 Cantor Fitzgerald: $27 Canaccord Genuity: $40 JP Morgan: $23 A. Davidson: $16 Rivian is the 1181 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $13.53 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Rivian Automotive Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


The Reserve Bank of Australia rate meeting today was supposed to be a done deal of another hold in rates, with futures markets pricing in an over 90% chance of that being the outcome. The RBA however, showing their determination to get an inflation rate still well outside their target band instead delivered a 25bp hike after last months pause, surprising the market and seeing a dramatic reaction in the Aussie dollar (pump) and equity markets. (dump) AUDUSD and ASX200 reaction: Adding to this was what was see as a hawkish statement accompanying the decision, helping to cement the original moves which look now to have some legs, likely seeing the AUDUSD break the 0.67 level this session. *RBA RAISES CASH RATE TARGET 25 BASIS POINTS TO 3.85% *RBA: SOME FURTHER TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY MAY BE REQUIRED *RBA SAYS RATE RISE TO HELP ANCHOR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS


Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) announced third quarter fiscal 2023 before the opening bell in the US on Friday. World’s largest consumer goods company beat both revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter, sending the stock higher. Company overview Founded: October 31, 1837 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 101,000 (2021) Industry: Consumer goods Key people: David S.
Taylor (Executive Chairman), Jon R. Moeller (President and CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $20.1 billion vs. $19.28 billion expected. EPS reported at $1.37 per share vs. analyst estimate of $1.323 per share.
CEO commentary ''We delivered strong results in the third quarter of fiscal year 2023 in what continues to be a very difficult cost and operating environment,'' Jon Moeller, CEO of Procter & Gamble said about the latest results in a press release. ''Our team’s strong execution of our strategies and our progress through three quarters enable us to raise our fiscal year outlook for sales growth and cash return to shareowners and maintain our guidance range for EPS growth despite continued cost and foreign exchange headwinds. We remain committed to our integrated strategies of a focused product portfolio of daily use categories where performance drives brand choice, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization structure. These strategies have enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum, and we’re confident they remain the right strategies to deliver balanced growth and value creation going forward,'' he concluded.
The latest results had a positive impact on the stock on Friday. Share price was up by around 3%, trading at around $156.44 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +6.58% 3 months: +9.38% Year-to-date: +3.18% 1 year: -3.02% Procter & Gamble price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $147 Berenberg Bank: $141 Evercore ISI: $160 Wells Fargo: $162 CFRA: $152 Procter & Gamble Company is the 20 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $369.12 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Procter & Gamble Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia


Natural Gas price action has had an amazing two years, with the usually pretty boring commodity showing extreme volatility pushing it to all time highs before a dramatic collapse seeing it back where it started in 2020. Like all the energy complex, Oil being a good example, the start of the Covid panic saw wild price fluctuations as traders came to terms with lockdowns and the related slowdowns, followed by unprecedented Central Bank stimulus. But the real push higher in Natural Gas came at the start of the war in Ukraine and the loss of Russian Gas for European suppliers, with fears of a cold winter with a much constrained supply of gas seeing the price spike to all-time highs.
But instead of a long cold gas starved winter the northern hemisphere experienced higher-than-average temperatures which meant the gas supply crunch wasn’t as dire as feared which sent liquefied natural gas prices tumbling to pre covid levels from a record all-time high. With Natural gas back to historical support levels there is a technical and fundamental case for a move higher in the near future. From a technical perspective, on a daily chart we can see that Natural Gas has found strong support since February around the 2.09 level, an historic level it found support at before the pandemic as well, we can also wee a rounding bottom pattern forming on a daily chart, this is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns in technical analysis.
According to a recent interview with Bloomberg by Yukio Kani, the chairman and CEO of Jera Co which is the worlds largest buyer of LNG, he is expecting a price spike again in natural gas this year due to Chinese re-opening demand, unusually war Northern Hemisphere weather increasing energy demand for cooling purposes and increased import capacity in Europe and China. Certainly, a market worth watching going forward!
