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4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前，他们已经限制了最坏的情况，但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分，伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变，而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击，市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰，而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶（桶）的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡，相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一，约占全球海运石油贸易的30％。
- 这是流量冲击，不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量，而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周，布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击，存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只，减少了约85％，超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火，为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费，如果正式确定，这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业，这反映了人们的观点，即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本，而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品，相当于全球石油消费量的20％和全球海运石油贸易的30％左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日，且剩余产能有限，在最近的升级之前，市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年，平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线，约占全球液化天然气贸易的20％，亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署（IEA）将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点，并指出，即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元，这既反映了物质紧张，也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。
由于流量减慢，油轮处于空转状态
现在，航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道，超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾，而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险，有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计，这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天，或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实，有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误，高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素：这是流量冲击，不是储存问题，停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整，可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30％的阻塞点时，该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内，估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨，燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移，更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去，通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合，可能会增加滞胀环境的风险，使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消，系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重，是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日（约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一）的阻塞点受到损害时，将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能，主要在欧佩克内部，只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线，包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输，只能部分抵消流量的损失，而且通常成本更高，交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前，全球石油流动可能继续受损，风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说，核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。
USD – The US dollar index was ultimately firmer in a choppy session where DXY hit a low of 103.18 in the APAC session only to reverse course later hitting a high of 103.71 in the US session. A sour risk environment after some misses in US retail earnings and traders getting long before the FOMC minutes seem to be the key drivers. Reaction to the minutes ended up being muted with a slight pop that retraced in quick time.
DXY now sandwiched between its 200-day SMA and key support level at 103.60 heading into the APAC session. AUD – AUDUSD got off to a flier in the APAC session after what was seen as hawkish RBA minutes released early in the session. The Aussie did fade later as it failed to breach key technical resistance at the 200-day SMA at 0.6590 and finished the session flat.
Key levels to watch today will be 0.6524 to the downside which was the top end of its recent range and the aforementioned 200-day SMA to the upside, Aussie traders will have comments from Governor Bullock later today to watch out for. EUR GBP EUR was the G10 laggard with EURUSD hitting a low of 1.0901 before finding some support at the big figure. ECB president Lagarde did speak but failed to inspire the bulls, also some budgetary issue out of Germany weighed on the single currency.
GBP on the other hand outperformed with cable having a positive session after some hawkish commentary from the BoE. This saw a sharp drop in EURGBP from its resistance at 0.8750 and heading towards its lower trend line support. Gold – XAUUSD broke out, setting new November highs and testing the October highs at 2009 before finding some resistance.
This came despite a stronger USD on the session, which would cheer the gold bulls.
USD continued its recent decline on Tuesday with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting its lowest level since mid-August at 102.60 before finding some support at the 61.8 Fib level. The decline accelerated after voting Fed member Waller who is seen as a hawk, made some dovish remarks regarding rates and inflation namely he was “increasingly confident" policy is well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%, he also hinted at rate cuts next year if inflation and the economy continued on its current path. There were also some comments from Fed member Bowman which skewed hawkish, but as she is already considered a hawk there wasn’t a comparable market reaction as to the Waller comments.
Chart Source:TradingView.com JPY was the G10 outperformer benefitting the most from USD weakness and lower US Treasury yields that saw the US 10 year and JGB 10-year yields compress further. USDJPY hitting a low of 147.32 and testing the November lows and support level at 147.27. Today the BoJ's Adachi is due to speak ahead of a raft of Japanese data released during the remainder of the week.
Chart Source:TradingView.com AUDUSD and NZDUSD both hit 3-month highs of 0.6665 and 0.6147 respectively, with broad USD weakness and a risk-on market supporting both cyclical currencies. Strength in the commodity markets and recent hawkish comments from RBA governor Bullock also lending a tailwind to AUD. Both currencies come into Wednesday with key economic readings to navigate, with Aussie CPI, where a drop to 5.2% Y/Y from 5.6% is expected, and a RBNZ rate decision due.
The RBNZ is widely expected to hold rates at 5.50% so it will be the forward guidance kiwi traders will be watching closely. Chart Source:TradingView.com
Markets were predictably quite due to holidays in the US and Japan on Thursday. USD was marginally softer overall with DXY dropping to test the support at the 200-day MA before recovering modestly amid the holiday lull for Thanksgiving. Source:TradingView.com EURUSD managed mild gains with price action choppy around the 1.0900 level but eventually managed to hold that key level.
There were several hawkish leaning comments from ECB officials and ECB Minutes noting that members argued in favour of keeping the door open for a possible further rate. Source:TradingView.com GBPUSD extended on its mid-week bounce and made further progress above 1.2500 after UK manufacturing and services PMI figures beat forecasts. Source:TradingView.com USDJPY ended flat for the session but not before a sharp dip reversed following a bounce off support at 149.00 and seeing the pair again settle above 149.50.
Source:TradingView.com Ahead on Fridays, US traders will be mostly offline meaning another likely low volume session, we do have Manufacturing and Services PMI figures out of the US later today though.
The Euro was softer In Wednesdays US session with EURUSD failing to hold above the psychological 1.10 level with cooler than expected inflation readings out of Spain and Germany weighing on the single currency. EURGBP dropped for the fifth straight session and setting new November lows. Comments from ECB member Stournaras pushing back on April rate cut bets failing to offer much support.
Chart Source: TradingView.com JPY firmed against the USD, USDJPY still playing catch up with US – JP rate differentials. US yields were again lower across the curve putting downward pressure on USDJPY. The Yen did give up some gains after some dovish comments from the BoJ's Adachi regarding the BoJ’s easy money policies.
Chart Source: TradingView.com After a recent tear higher AUD was the G10 underperformer while across the ditch NZD was one of the outperformers. NZDUSD spiking higher following a hawkish hold from the RBNZ where the Central bank left rates on hold as expected, but it raised both its OCR and CPI forecasts and left the door wide open for future hikes if needed. AUDNZD tumbling through its 2023 range midpoint support at 1.07735 and setting new November lows.
Chart Source: TradingView.com Gold rallied for the fifth straight session, despite a bounce in the USD. XAUUSD poking it’s head above 20250 USD an ounce and entering the resistance zone set in April – May before paring some of its gains. The 2047-2067 zone looking a key area to test the rampant gold bull run of the last two weeks.
Chart Source: TradingView.com
Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) reported the latest results for the fourth-quarter ending October 29, 2023 and full fiscal 2023 before the market opens in the US on Wednesday. The American manufacturer of farm machinery and industrial equipment beat Wall Street estimates for the fourth-quarter but fell short on future outlook expecations. Company overview Founded: 1837 Headquarters: Moline, Illinois, United States Number of employees: 82,200 (2022) Industry: Agricultural machinery, heavy equipment Key people: John C.
May (Chairman, CEO & President) The results The company reported revenue of $15,412 billion (down by 1% year-over-year) vs. $13.641 billion expected. Earnings per share reached $8.26 (up by 11.02% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $7.462 per share. Full-year revenue reached $61,251 billion, up by 16.49% vs. 2022.
Deere expects revenue of between $7.75 to $8.25 billion for full-year 2024, below $9.31 billion expected. CEO commentary "Deere’s fourth-quarter and full-year results can be attributed to the successful execution of our Smart Industrial Operating Model and the value that customers recognize in our industry-leading products and solutions," John C. May, CEO of Deere said in a statement. "We must also recognize and credit our dedicated employees, dealers, and suppliers, whose hard work and focus have been instrumental to our overall success," May added.
Stock reaction The stock was down by around 3% on Wednesday despite beating analyst estimates for the previous quarter due to future outlook. Stock performance 1 month: -0.80% 3 months: -6.43% Year-to-date: -13.95% 1 year: -15.67% Deere & Company stock price targets Canaccord Genuity: $400 Evercore ISI Group: $424 HSBC: $486 Deutsche Bank: $407 Stifel: $460 Oppenheimer: $458 UBS: $408 Credit Suisse: $551 JP Morgan: $380 DA Davidson: $510 Citigroup: $475 BMO Capital: $425 Deere & Company is the 126th largest company in the world with a market cap of $106.07 billion. You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Deere & Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, FactSet
The world’s largest supermarket chain Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) released third quarter earnings results before the market opened in the US on Thursday. Walmart beat Wall Street estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Company overview Founded: July 2, 1962 Headquarters: Bentonville, Arkansas, United States Number of employees: 2.1 million (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Greg Penner (Chairman), Doug McMillon (President and CEO) The results Walmart reported revenue of $160.804 billion for the quarter (up by 5.2% year-over-year) vs. $159.651 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.53 per share (up by 2% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $1.522 per share. Walmart raised its full-year net sales growth forecast from between 4%-4.5% to between 5%-5.5%. Adjusted EPS expected to reach between $6.40-$6.48 per share vs. analyst estimate of $6.48 per share.
CEO commentary "We had strong revenue growth across segments for the quarter, and we’re excited to get an early start to the holiday season. From a Thanksgiving meal that costs less than last year, to great prices on fashion, toys, electronics, and seasonal decorations, we’re here to help families from around the world make this a special time. Looking ahead, our inventory is in good shape, the teams are focused, and our associates are ready to serve our customers and members whenever and however they want to be served,'' CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon said in a letter to investors.
Stock reaction" [insert chart image attached to the email] Shares of Walmart fell by around 7% on Thursday on future outlook despite beating Q3 estimates. Stock performance 1 month: -2.37% 3 months: +0.82% Year-to-date: +10.70% 1 year: +6.05% Walmart stock price targets Jefferies: $195 Stifel: $171 Stephens & Co.: $190 Tigress Financial: $196 Piper Sandler: $210 HSBC: $200 Evercore ISI Group: $177 Citigroup: $180 TD Cowen: $185 Walmart is the 16th largest company in the world with a market cap of $421.71 billion. You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Financial Times