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4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前，他们已经限制了最坏的情况，但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分，伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变，而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击，市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰，而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶（桶）的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡，相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一，约占全球海运石油贸易的30％。
- 这是流量冲击，不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量，而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周，布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击，存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只，减少了约85％，超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火，为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费，如果正式确定，这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业，这反映了人们的观点，即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本，而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品，相当于全球石油消费量的20％和全球海运石油贸易的30％左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日，且剩余产能有限，在最近的升级之前，市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年，平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线，约占全球液化天然气贸易的20％，亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署（IEA）将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点，并指出，即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元，这既反映了物质紧张，也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。
由于流量减慢，油轮处于空转状态
现在，航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道，超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾，而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险，有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计，这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天，或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实，有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误，高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素：这是流量冲击，不是储存问题，停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整，可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30％的阻塞点时，该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内，估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨，燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移，更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去，通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合，可能会增加滞胀环境的风险，使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消，系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重，是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日（约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一）的阻塞点受到损害时，将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能，主要在欧佩克内部，只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线，包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输，只能部分抵消流量的损失，而且通常成本更高，交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前，全球石油流动可能继续受损，风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说，核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。
The Goldmans Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) released the latest financial results for the last quarter of 2023 and the full year on Tuesday. The New York based financial firm reported revenue of $11.318 billion for the quarter vs. $10.797 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $5.48 per share vs. $3.617 per share expected.
Total revenue reached $46.25 billion in 2023. Full-year EPS reported at $22.87 per share. Company overview Founded: 1869 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 48,500 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Lloyd Blankfein (Senior Chairman), David M.
Solomon (Chairman and CEO) CEO commentary David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, commented on the latest results: "This was a year of execution for Goldman Sachs. With everything we achieved in 2023 coupled with our clear and simplified strategy, we have a much stronger platform for 2024. Our strategic objectives underscore our relentless commitment to serve our clients with excellence, further strengthen our leading client franchise and continue to deliver for shareholders." Stock reaction Shares of Goldman Sachs were up by 0.71% at the end of trading day on Tuesday, trading at $380.45 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -2.77% 1 month: +0.45% 3 months: +20.26% Year-to-date: -1.99% 1 year: +1.10% Goldmans Sachs stock price targets BMO Capital Markets: $357 JP Morgan: $421 UBS Group: $440 Barclays: $493 Morgan Stanley: $333 Oppenheimer: $468 JPM Securities: $440 Citigroup: $380 HSBC: $403 Credit Suisse: $410 Wells Fargo: $390 Bank of America: $425 Goldmans Sachs Group Inc. is the 109th largest company in the world with a market cap of $123.38 billion. You can trade Goldmans Sachs Group Inc. and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Goldmans Sachs Group Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
USD was flat in Monday’s session with DXY trading in a tight range from 103.110-103. 370 amid a light economic calendar ahead of the major risk events from Tuesday onwards. DXY still capped to the upside by the 50% Fib level resistance as traders look to be waiting for rate decisions from the BoJ, BoC and ECB before taking a USD view. AUD, and NZD were the G10 underperformers.
AUDUSD trading just above 0.6600 early in the APAC session before reversing course and retracing all of Friday’s gains. NZDUSD breaking support at 0.6084 to set new 2024 lows. AUD and NZD weighed on by a broad-based selling in the Chinese market.
JPY was flat against the USD ahead of today’s BoJ policy meeting. Comments from Japanese PM Kishida requesting firms provide larger pay rises this year supporting the Yen somewhat. The BoJ isn’t expected to make any changes to current easy money policy but any mention of a timeline for rate normalisation would be Yen positive.
USDJPY still trading in a tight range, just holding the key level of 148 coming into the BoJ announcement.
The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) released Q4 and 2023 full-year earnings results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Wednesday. The US financial services company reported revenue of $4.459 billion, falling slightly short of analyst estimate of $4.494 billion. Revenue was down by 19% vs.
Q4 of 2022. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $0.68 per share (down by 36% year-over-year) vs. $0.638 per share expected. Full year revenue reached $18.837 billion, down by 9% vs. 2022.
Full year EPS reported at $3.13, down by 20% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1971 Headquarters: Westlake, Texas, United States Number of employees: 35,300 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Charles R. Schwab (co-chairman), Walter W.
Bettinger (co-chairman & CEO) CEO commentary Walter W. Bettinger, CEO of Charles Schwab, commented on the latest results: "Over the course of 2023, our commitment to clients was unwavering. Through an uneven environment with shifting views on the trajectory of the U.S. economy, persistent geopolitical unrest, and a temporary disruption within the regional banking sector, our "no trade-offs" value proposition continued to resonate with investors.
Clients entrusted us with $306 billion in core net new assets during the year, including over $43 billion in December alone. This ongoing success with clients helped push total client assets to a record $8.52 trillion at year-end. Additionally, we welcomed 977 thousand new-to-firm retail households as well as 315 advisors-in-transition to Schwab.
In total, we added 3.8 million new brokerage accounts to increase our total client base to 34.8 million accounts." "As we move forward with our key initiatives, we remain as confident as ever in our "Through Clients’ Eyes" strategy. Our client focus has guided our culture and operating priorities for five decades and we believe it keeps us best positioned to sustain long-term profitable growth into the future," Betting added. Stock reaction Shares of Charles Schwab were down by 1.34% at the end of trading day on Wednesday at $63.45 a share – the lowest level since 7/12/2023.
Stock performance 5 day: -3.60% 1 month: -5.47% 3 months: +22.40% Year-to-date: -7.78% 1 year: -22.03% The Charles Schwab Corporation stock price targets Citigroup: $70 Raymond James: $78 TD Cowen: $77 Goldman Sachs: $71 UBS Group: $82 JP Morgan: $85 JMP Securities: $77 Barclays: $57 Morgan Stanley: $64 Deutsche Bank: $69 Jefferies Financial Group; $62 Piper Sandler: $75 Bank of America: $53 Credit Suisse: $67.50 The Charles Schwab Corporation is the 120th largest company in the world with a market cap of $115.64 billion. You can trade The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Charles Schwab Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
World’s largest healthcare company, UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH), reported fourth quarter and 2023 full-year financial results on Friday. The company achieved revenue of $94.427 billion for Q4 of 2023 (up by 14% vs. Q4 2022) vs. $92.126 billion expected.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $6.16 per share vs. estimate of $5.985 per share. Full-year revenue reached $371.6 billion, up by 15% vs. 2022. EPS reported at $25.12 per share, up by 13.2% year-over-year.
Company’s medical costs rose by 16.1% from $53.591 billion to $62.231 billion. Company overview Founded: 1977 Headquarters: Minnetonka, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 440,000 (2023) Industry: Managed healthcare, insurance Key people: Stephen J. Hemsley (Chair), Andrew Witty (CEO), Dirk McMahon (President, COO), John Rex (CFO) CEO commentary "UnitedHealth Group enters 2024 well prepared to build on our efforts to improve patient care and consumer experiences broadly, and to continue delivering strong and balanced growth," Andrew Witty, CEO of the company highlighted on what the company is focusing on in the year ahead.
Stock reaction Shares of UnitedHealth were down by around 3% on Friday despite beating analyst estimates for the quarter due to rising operating costs. Stock performance 5 day: -3.16% 1 month: -2.02% 3 months: -3.52% Year-to-date: -1.15% 1 year: +6.30% UnitedHealth stock price targets HSBC: $480 Stephens: $585 Truist Financial: $610 Royal Bank of Canada: $596 Jefferies Financial Group: $503 Morgan Stanley: $579 Piper Sandler: $584 UBS Group: $640 Deutsche Bank: $555 TD Cowen: $555 JP Morgan: $532 Wells Fargo: $561 Mizuho: 549 UnitedHealth Group Inc. is the 15th largest company in the world with a market cap of $481.23 billion. You can trade UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: UnitedHealth Group Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
US financial services company, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), announced Q4 2023 and full year financial results before the US open on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley reported revenue of $12.896 billion for the previous quarter, narrowly beating analyst estimate of $12.773 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of Wall Street expectations at $0.85 vs. $1.074 per share expected.
The company achieved revenue for $54.1 billion in 2023. EPS reached $5.18 per share. Company overview Founded: 1935 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 80,257 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: James P.
Gorman (Executive Chairman), Ted Pick (CEO), Andy Saperstein (Co-President), Dan Simkowitz (Co-President), Sharon Yeshaya (CFO) CEO commentary "In 2023, the Firm reported a solid ROTCE* against a mixed market backdrop and a number of headwinds. We begin 2024 with a clear and consistent business strategy and a unified leadership team. We are focused on achieving our long-term financial goals and continuing to deliver for shareholders," CEO of Morgan Stanley, Ted Pick, commented on the results in a statement to shareholders. *Return on tangible equity Stock reaction The stock was down by over 4% after the announcement of the latest results.
Shares were trading at $85.80 a share – the lowest level in over a month. Stock performance 5 day: -7.92% 1 month: -5.13% 3 months: +9.36% Year-to-date: -7.67% 1 year: -6.07% Morgan Stanley stock price targets HSBC: $96 JP Morgan: $94 UBS Group: $95 Bank of America: $100 Barclays: $116 Royal Bank of Canada: $85 Goldman Sachs: $100 Societe Generale: $80 BNP Paribas: $85 Oppenheimer: $103 Evercore: $97 Morgan Stanley is the 88th largest company in the world with a market cap of $141.14 billion. You can trade Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Morgan Stanley, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Since reaching a local bottom in October of last year, XAUUSD has experienced a strong uptrend of over 13%. Closing its third consecutive positive session, Gold is inching closer to its all-time high, now sitting just above $2,050 USD per ounce. From a technical standpoint, Gold is following a well-defined rising channel that has been predominantly respected since November 2023.
As the price approaches the midpoint of this channel, there is a possibility, especially on lower time frames, that this point may act as temporary resistance. This is a crucial level to monitor closely. Image: GOLD Chart The recent positive momentum in XAUUSD is closely tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The enduring conflict between Gaza and Israel, coupled with the initiation of a new US-led conflict in Yemen against the Houthis, has contributed to the precious metal's strength. The current economic landscape in the United States, along with projections for rate cuts in 2024, also is playing a pivotal role in Gold's recent performance. In response to US inflation climbing from nearly 0% to a peak of 9.10% in July 2022, the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times.
The rates have surged from 0.25% to the current 5.50%. Image: CPI and Federal Funds Rate (FFR) Chart Data suggests the possibility of multiple rate cuts in 2024, with some anticipating cuts as early as the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to CME data, market expectations indicate a projection of six rate cuts for 2024, culminating in an effective rate of approximately 3.50-3.75% by year-end.
Image: CME FedWatch Historically, the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like Gold tends to rise when interest rates decrease, contributing to the recent upward trajectory of Gold prices. Gold traders will be closely monitoring the evolving tensions in the Middle East and upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This scrutiny aims to draw insights into the potential timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts and their subsequent impact on Gold's market dynamics.