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4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前，他们已经限制了最坏的情况，但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分，伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变，而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击，市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰，而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶（桶）的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡，相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一，约占全球海运石油贸易的30％。
- 这是流量冲击，不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量，而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周，布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击，存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只，减少了约85％，超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火，为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费，如果正式确定，这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业，这反映了人们的观点，即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本，而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品，相当于全球石油消费量的20％和全球海运石油贸易的30％左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日，且剩余产能有限，在最近的升级之前，市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年，平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线，约占全球液化天然气贸易的20％，亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署（IEA）将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点，并指出，即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元，这既反映了物质紧张，也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。
由于流量减慢，油轮处于空转状态
现在，航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道，超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾，而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险，有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计，这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天，或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实，有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误，高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素：这是流量冲击，不是储存问题，停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整，可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30％的阻塞点时，该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内，估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨，燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移，更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去，通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合，可能会增加滞胀环境的风险，使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消，系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重，是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日（约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一）的阻塞点受到损害时，将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能，主要在欧佩克内部，只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线，包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输，只能部分抵消流量的损失，而且通常成本更高，交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前，全球石油流动可能继续受损，风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说，核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。
The US earnings season continues. To kick things off this week, McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD), released Q4 2023 and full year results before the opening bell on Monday. World’s largest restaurant chain reported revenue that fell short of Wall Street expectations for the first time since Q2 2022 at $6.406 billion vs. $6.448 billion expected.
Revenue was up by 8% vs. Q4 2022. Earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.95 vs. analyst estimate of $2.827 per share.
EPS was also up by 8% year-over-year. Full year revenue reached $25.493 billion, up from $23.182 billion in 2022. EPS grew by 39% year-over-year to $11.56 per share.
Company overview Founded: 1940 Headquarters: Chicago, Illinois, United States Number of employees: 150,000 (2022) Industry: Fast food restaurants, real estate Key people: Enrique Hernandez Jr. (chairman), Chris Kempczinski (president & CEO) CEO commentary "Our global comparable sales growth of 9% for the year is a testament to the tremendous dedication of the entire McDonald’s System," CEO of McDonald's, Chris Kempczinski said in a press release. "Strong execution of our Accelerating the Arches strategy has driven over 30% comparable sales growth since 2019 as our talented crew members, and the industry’s best franchisees and suppliers have demonstrated proven agility with a relentless focus on the customer. By evolving the way we work across the System, we remain confident in the resilience of our business amid macro challenges that will persist in 2024," Kempczinski added. Stock reaction The stock was down by 3.73% at the end of trading on Monday, trading at $285.97 a share, falling to its lowest level since 8/12/23.
Stock performance 5 day: -2.17% 1 month: -2.03% 3 months: +6.34% Year-to-date: -3.55% 1 year: +6.74% McDonald’s stock price targets Bank of America: $341 Stifel Nicolaus: $322 HSBC: $317 Truist Financial: $340 Piper Sandler: $299 TD Cowen: $325 BMO Capital Markets: $335 Royal Bank of Canada: $315 Citigroup: $310 DZ Bank: $300 Wedbush: $310 Stephens: $300 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $278 McDonald’s Corporation is the 51st largest company in the world with a market cap of $207.42 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: McDonald’s Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
US technology giant, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), reported Q4 2023 financial results on Thursday. World’s largest semiconductor company by revenue reported revenue and earnings per share (EPS) that beat analyst estimates. Revenue reached $15.406 billion vs. $15.159 billion expected.
Revenue grew by 10% year-over-year. EPS reported at $0.54 vs. $0.447 per share estimate. EPS was up by 260% vs.
Q4 2022. Intel expects revenue of between $12.2 to $13.2 billion for Q1, below analyst estimate of $14.15 billion. EPS expected to be $0.13 vs. $0.33 per share expected.
Company overview Founded: 1968 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, United States Number of employees: 131,900 (2022) Industry: Semiconductors, Computer hardware, Autonomous cars, Automation, Artificial intelligence Key people: Frank D. Yeary (chairman), Pat Gelsinger (CEO) CEO commentary ''We delivered strong Q4 results, surpassing expectations for the fourth consecutive quarter with revenue at the higher end of our guidance,'' CEO of Intel, Pat Gelsinger, said in a statement to investors. ''The quarter capped a year of tremendous progress on Intel's transformation, where we consistently drove execution and accelerated innovation, resulting in strong customer momentum for our products. In 2024, we remain relentlessly focused on achieving process and product leadership, continuing to build our external foundry business and at-scale global manufacturing, and executing our mission to bring AI everywhere as we drive long-term value for stakeholders,'' Gelsinger added.
Stock reaction The stock was up by 0.94% on Thursday, trading at $49.55 a share. Despite beating expectations for Q4 2023, the stock fell by around 8% in after-hours trading as future outlook came in below estimates. Stock performance 5 day: +6.01% 1 month: -1.67% 3 months: +52.37% Year-to-date: -1.39% 1 year: +64.67% Intel stock price targets Rosenblatt: $17 Cantor Fitzgerald: $50 Raymond James: $54 TD Cowen: $45 Susquehanna: $42 Barclays: $44 Stifel Nicolaus: $45 Deutsche Bank: $42 Bank of America: $50 Benchmark: $52 Mizuho: $50 Needham & Company LLC: $40 HSBC: $33 Morgan Stanley: $39 Intel Corporation is the 52nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $208.90 billion.
You can trade Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Intel Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap, Gartner, CNBC, LSEG
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) released the latest financial results for Q4 of last year after the market closed on Tuesday. World’s 11th largest automaker did not disappoint investors and topped both revenue and earnings per share estimates (EPS). The company achieved revenue of $46 billion in the last 3 months of 2023 vs. $43.062 billion expected, up by 4.5% year-over-year.
EPS was reported at $0.29, beating Wall Street estimate by 140.22% at $0.121 per share. Company overview Founded: 1903 Headquarters: Ford World Headquarters, Dearborn, Michigan, United States Number of employees: 173,000 (2022) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Clay Ford Jr. (Executive Chairman), Jim Farley (President & CEO) CEO commentary ''We’re the only company that gives customers such a wide range of choices – gas, hybrid and electric vehicles – made possible by our Ford+ plan and the talented team that’s carrying it out,'' Jim Farley, CEO of Ford highlighted what separates the company from the competition. ''Ford is creating a product, software and services powerhouse with huge potential for this year and the long haul,'' Farley concluded his statement to investors. Stock reaction Shares were up by 4.14% at market close on Tuesday, trading at $12.07.
The stock rose in the after-hours by around 6% as investors digested the results. Stock performance 5 day: +2.46% 1 month: +1.94% 3 months: +18.68% Year-to-date: -0.98% 1 year: -10.26% Ford stock price targets UBS Group: $12 BNP Paribas: $12 HSBC: $11.30 Barclays: $14 Morgan Stanley: $15 Royal Bank of Canada: $12 Daiwa Capital Markets: $13 Jefferies Financial Group: $15 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $16 The Goldman Sachs Group: 14 Citigroup: $17 Wells Fargo & Company: $11 Benchmark: $20 Ford Motor Company is the 367th largest company in the world with a market cap of $48.31 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Ford Motor Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
USD tracked higher with yields in Tuesday’s session with the Dollar Index (DXY) hitting a high of 103.820, setting a new YTD high and breaking through the key technical levels of the 200-day SMA as well as a 50% Fib resistance level. DXY saw initial weakness in the European morning which emanated from APAC hours amid a firmer post-BoJ Yen but reversed course in the US session as UST yields climbed and earnings disappointments saw US equites struggle. JPY closed the session seeing marginal losses against the USD.
USDJPY did drop to a low of 146.97 after BoJ Governor Ueda delivered a hawkish-leaning press conference after the BoJ policy decision where he said he will certainly foresee further rate hikes when exiting negative interest rate policy. JPY gains failed to hold though with the pair retaking the 148 handle coming into the APAC open. AUD, NZD and CAD were the G10 outperformers, with all making gains against the USD.
NZD and AUD were bolstered by overnight Yuan gains and resilience in commodity prices. CAD was bid ahead of todays Bank of Canada policy meeting where the central bank is expected to hold rates steady, and possibly pushback against rate cut predictions after a hotter than expected December inflation reading.
USD was flat on Tuesday with the US dollar index (DXY) trading either side of the 200-day SMA and 50% Fib level at 103.50. FX traders turning their attention to the pivotal FOMC rate decision on Wednesday followed by the non-farm employment report on Friday. A better than expected JOLTS job opening report lending some support early in the session to the USD.
EURUSD rebounded from lows of 1.0796 after Spanish CPI printed hotter than expected and no misses on various EZ GDP figures. EUR traders attention will now turn to the German and French CPI figures due today after the hot Spanish print. USDJPY was flat for the session, still holding below the psychological 148 level ahead of the rest of the weeks risk events.
The gap between US and JP 10-year yields and price growing which should put some downward pressure on this pair. AUD underperformed on disappointing retail sales figures ahead of today’s CPI print. AUDUSD did find support at its 200-day moving average at 0.6575 where it has revolved around for the last few sessions.
Look for this level to establish strong support should we get a hot Aussie CPI today.
USD was bid in Mondays session with the US Dollar Index following US treasury yields higher after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell over the weekend where he pushed back on market pricing of rate cuts starting in March. A beat in the ISM Services PMI data also supporting DXY as rate cut odds in March dropped down to around 17% from the 35% chance priced in at the close on Friday. JPY continued its decline with USDJPY printing a new high for 2024 at 148.89.
US 10 Year yields broke above 4%, seeing the US10Y – JP10Y rate differential jump higher and take USDJPY with it. USDJPY holding above the psychological 148 level and eyeing the 150 “intervention zone”. AUDUSD saw significant weakness with USD strength and a miss in the Chinese Caixin Services PMI weighing.
For AUD traders’ attention today will turn to the RBA rate decision at 14:30 AEDT. The Central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, but it will be the accompanying statement that will generate the most interest, will the RBA take a note out the Feds book and push back against rate cut expectations? Gold dipped to 1-week lows on a stronger USD and a surge in yields making the non-yielding metal look less attractive.
XAUUSD dipping to a low of 1025 before finding some support and re-tracing modestly. Gold continuing to trade in the 2024 range of 2000 – 2070 USD an ounce. Both key levels to watch for Gold traders going forward.