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4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前,他们已经限制了最坏的情况,但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分,伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变,而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击,市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰,而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶(桶)的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡,相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一,约占全球海运石油贸易的30%。
- 这是流量冲击,不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量,而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周,布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击,存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只,减少了约85%,超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火,为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费,如果正式确定,这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业,这反映了人们的观点,即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本,而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品,相当于全球石油消费量的20%和全球海运石油贸易的30%左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日,且剩余产能有限,在最近的升级之前,市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年,平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线,约占全球液化天然气贸易的20%,亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署(IEA)将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点,并指出,即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元,这既反映了物质紧张,也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。

由于流量减慢,油轮处于空转状态
现在,航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道,超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾,而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险,有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计,这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天,或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实,有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误,高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素:这是流量冲击,不是储存问题,停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整,可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30%的阻塞点时,该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内,估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨,燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移,更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去,通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合,可能会增加滞胀环境的风险,使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消,系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重,是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日(约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一)的阻塞点受到损害时,将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能,主要在欧佩克内部,只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线,包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输,只能部分抵消流量的损失,而且通常成本更高,交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前,全球石油流动可能继续受损,风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说,核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。


Dicker Data is an Australian-owned and operated, ASX-listed technology hardware, software and cloud distributor. They were founded in 1978. As a distributor, they sell exclusively to a valued partner base of over 5,500 resellers.
Dicker Data distributes a wide portfolio of products from the world’s leading technology vendors. Dicker Data have successfully navigated the end of governmental business stimulus and the impact of a global semiconductor chip shortage to post a net profit of $73.6 million, which is an increase of 29%. Sales figures increased 24% to $2.48 billion for the 2021 calendar year.
Dicker Data declared a final dividend of 15 cents (USD), 100% flanked, on total earnings of 42.6 cents per share. FY21 Results Highlights The company believes that shortages are a part of the computer business and have always planned around it. They identify the software sector to be its highest growth opportunity as dynamic workplaces, which allow employees to work from home, are currently in high demand.
They also identify that there will be a strong demand for audio-visual equipment, such as large format displays for meeting rooms, as workplaces welcome back employees to the offices. The company’s debt over the period has almost doubled to $230.2 million after they have announced debt funded deals to acquire its rival IT distributor, Exceed, for $68 million. They have also recently acquired Hills Ltd’s Security and Information Technology business for $20 million last month.
The company also has their sights on another acquisition in the future, they have been in talks with a few bankers to help finance a potential acquisition of a rival US-based IT distributor, Ingram Micro. Ingram Micro was sold to US private equity group Platinum Equity for $7.2 billion (USD) in July 2021. Prior to this, HNA Group acquired the business for around $6 billion (USD) in 2016.
Co-founder David Dicker stated that his company would have acquired Ingram Micro for $7 billion (USD) if they had been able to raise the capital. Dicker Data share value is slowly trending up since February’s acquisition. However, due to the Russia and Ukraine conflict, the ASX 200 index is currently dropping in value and this can trickle down to companies such as Dicker Data.
Overall, Dicker Data is currently in a growth state and is looking to acquire companies that would help increase the company’s value and offerings to its many clients. They aim to use debt to fund the acquisitions and then issue shares to pay down the debt once the acquisition is successful. The acquisitions have helped the company achieve a profitable year as evident in the earnings report.
With the acquisition target of Ingram Micro, this can be an exciting opportunity to track the progress from start to finish. If you would like to take this opportunity to invest in Dicker Data and don’t already have a trading account, you can register for a Shares account at GO Markets. Sources: ASX, TradingView, AFR.


A sudden rapid increase in commodity prices, propelled by supply concerns stemming from the Russia and Ukraine conflict, has brought about inflationary pressure and moved future inflation expectation. The increase has also pushed indices into a bear market and caused some volatility in global equities. Nickel, European gas and wheat have all hit record highs on Monday.
Copper, Brent crude oil, aluminium and thermal coal are currently sitting at their highest levels in years. The commodities rally has stirred up fears that inflationary pressures will persist as the price increase works its way through the supply chain and slows down economic growth. The Australian 10-year break-even rate is sitting at 2.48%, its highest level since 2014.
The US 10-year break-even rate increased to 2.86% on Tuesday, its highest level since 2005. The German 10-year break-even rate hit a record high of 2.62%. Break-even rates represent the difference between a nominal bond and an inflation-linked bond of the same maturity, implying the average rate of inflation over a given period of time.
The spike in these rates suggests that the bond market is expecting inflation to be far more persistent than central banks and strategists have been expecting. The fear of Russian energy sanctions has led to heavy selling in the global equity markets. The US Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany DAX index have slipped into bear markets as shown from the chart above.
The EU50 and DAX are currently down 20% since their peaks in mid-January. The spike in break-even rates comes after the surge in the price of energy as Brent crude has reached a high of $136 USD a barrel on Monday. This rapid increase in the cost of energy, namely the Brent Oil, is currently making its way through to our local petrol pumps.
As the national average petrol price has climbed to 1.839 per litre. Other commodity prices are also beginning to break into new territory and are likely to drive up the cost of goods further down the supply chain. Nickel recently hit a record high of over $60,000 USD a tonne, as supply risks sparked a short squeeze.
About 7 per cent of the world’s nickel is produced in Russia, with the metal being used to produce stainless steel. It is also a major component of lithium-ion batteries, which are used in electric vehicles. The steady surge in commodity prices and their associated inflation risk has created a dilemma for central banks across the world.
Central banks are trying to manage inflation without curbing growth. All in all, commodity prices are currently on the rise as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. Their prices are now on most investors’ watchlists, as it can affect other markets such as Forex and Indices.
If you would like to take this opportunity to invest and do not yet have a trading account, you can open a GO Markets CFD trading account. Source: GO Markets MT5, TradingView, Globalpetrolprices, AFR


Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) released its financial results for Q2 after the market close in the US on Tuesday. The company reported revenue that fell short of Wall Street expectations at $808.325 million for Q2 vs. $873.82 million expected. Coinbase reported a loss per share of -$4.98 per share vs. -$2.47 loss per share expected. ''Q2 was a test of durability for crypto companies and a complex quarter overall.
Dramatic market movements shifted user behaviour and trading volume, which impacted transaction revenue, but also highlighted the strength of our risk management program. We are focusing on our top business priorities and more tightly managing expenses.'' ''The decline in crypto asset prices significantly impacted our Q2 financial results, which were consistent with the outlook provided in May. Net revenue was $803 million, down 31% compared to Q1, driven by lower trading volume.
Total operating expenses were $1.9 billion, up 8% compared to Q1. Net loss was $1.1 billion and was heavily impacted by non-cash impairment charges. Absent non-cash impairment charges, net loss would have been $647 million.
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $151 million,'' the company wrote in a letter to shareholders. Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) chart Share price of Coinbase was down by 10.55% on Tuesday, trading $87.49 a share. The stock fell further in after-hours following the release of the latest financial results, down by around 3%.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month +61.65% 3 months +20.13% Year-to-date -65.26% 1 year -67.49% Coinbase price targets Citigroup $105 DA Davidson $90 Mizuho $42 JMP Securities $205 Atlantic Equities $54 Goldman Sachs $45 JP Morgan $68 Coinbase Global Inc. is the 754 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $22.96 billion. You can trade Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Coinbase Global Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Fears of slowing growth and weak Chinese data have forced China to ramp up its efforts to stimulate its economy and reassure investors: Record $83 billion injection: China injected a large amount of money in its economy. $83 billion was placed in the country’s financial system to avoid a cash crunch that would add further pressure to an “already” weakening economy. Spending Plans: Amid a raft of measures, China has approved a whopping $125bn of new rail projects over the past month. China is increasing its approvals for new projects and fiscal spending to counteract the slowdown.
Tax Cuts: China has put forward plans for the private sector and small business and is turning to tax cuts as a primary defence for its slowing economy. As uncertainties around tariffs continue, China is helping private companies and small business to obtain financing and increasing consumer spending. As of writing, the GDP (YoY) came at 6.4% from 6.5%, and we expect China’s economy to weaken in the lower range of the 6% mark amid the current external and domestic challenges.
Trade tensions have shaken business and consumer confidence and have further slowed economic growth. Even though there is more optimism on trade talks and higher chances of a truce deal, we expect trade negotiations to be bumpy and lengthy. The real economic implications may become more apparent in the coming months, and this can weigh on risk sentiment.
We expect to continue observing more actions from China during the year. The weak data is also giving room for policymakers to put forward more growth-supportive measures in the near term to stimulate growth and bring stability to its economy. So far, the stimulus actions coupled with positive trade talks helped the Chinese Yuan and the Shanghai Index to climb higher.
After a bruising year, the Index rose by more than 130 points since the beginning of the year.


Beyond Meat Inc. reported their latest financial results for Q4 2021 after the closing bell on Wall Street today. The US plant-based meat substitute producer company fell short of analyst expectations for the last quarter, sending the stock price lower in the after-market hours. The company reported revenue of $100.678 million in Q4 (decrease of 1.2% year-over-year) vs. $101.044 million expected.
Loss per share reported at -$1.27 a share, way above analyst forecast -$0.70 a share. Net revenue for 2021 at $464.7 million – an increase of 14.2% year-over-year. "In 2021 we saw strong growth in our international channel net revenues, as well as sporadic yet promising signs of a resumption of growth in U.S. foodservice channel net revenues as COVID-19 variants peaked and declined. These gains, however, were dampened by what we believe to be a temporary disruption in U.S. retail growth, for our brand and the broader category.
Despite the variability and challenges of the year, we did not deviate from building the foundation for our long-term growth. The investments we made in our team, infrastructure, and capabilities across the U.S., EU, and China, as well as extensive product scaling activities for key strategic partners, weighed heavily on operating expenses and gross margin during a fourth quarter and year that were already impacted by lower than expected volumes. However, we believe these investments will be instrumental in driving our long-term growth," Ethan Brown, Beyond Meat CEO said in a statement following the latest financial results from the company. "As we begin 2022, we are pleased with the progress we are making against our long-term strategy, such as the number of tests and core menu placements recently announced by our global QSR partners.
Though we will continue to invest during 2022, we expect to substantially moderate the growth of our operating expenses as we leverage the building blocks we now have in place to serve our customers, consumers, and markets — bringing forward our exciting and expansive future one delicious serving at a time," Brown added. Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND) chart (Weekly) Shares of Beyond Meat were up by 3.38% on Thursday at $48.64. However, the stock fell sharply in the after-hours – down by around 10%.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -13.37% 3 Month: -35.14% Year-to-date: -24.80% 1 Year: -65.91% Beyond Meat Inc. is the 2973 rd largest company in the world with total market cap of $3.10 billion. You can trade Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Beyond Meat Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap


Alibaba Group Holdings Limited (BABA) reported its latest financial results before the market open on Thursday. The Chinese e-commerce giant reported revenue of $30.689 billion for the quarter vs. $30.364 billion expected. Earnings per share were reported at $1.75 per share vs. $1.60 per share expected.
Daniel Zhang, Chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group commented on the results: ''During the past quarter, we actively adapted to changes in the macro environment and remained focused on our long-term strategy by continuing to strengthen our capability for customer value creation.'' ''Following a relatively slow April and May, we saw signs of recovery across our businesses in June. We are confident in our growth opportunities in the long term given our high-quality consumer base and the resilience of our diversified business model catering to different demands of our customers,'' Zhang added. ''Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 resurgence, we delivered stable revenue performance year-over-year. We have narrowed losses in key strategic businesses given ongoing improvements in operating efficiency and increasing focus on cost optimization,'' said Toby Xu, CFO of Alibaba Group. ''We recently shared our plan to add Hong Kong as another primary listing venue.
By becoming primary listed on both Hong Kong and New York stock exchanges, we aim to further expand and diversify our investor base,'' Xu concluded. Alibaba Group Holdings Limited (BABA) chart Share price of Alibaba was up by around 1% on Thursday, trading at $96.93 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month -21.79% 3 Month +14% Year-to-date -19.42% 1 Year -51.97% Alibaba price targets B of A Securities $155 Bernstein $130 Benchmark $205 JP Morgan $140 HSBC $141 Citigroup $172 Truist Securities $145 Barclays $161 Alibaba Group Holdings Limited is the 31 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $256.21 billion.
You can trade Alibaba Group Holdings Limited (BABA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Alibaba Group Holdings Limited, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
