外汇市场进入了一个重要的窗口，美联储将做出政策决定和新闻发布会，美国的ISM活动数据，德国的通胀报告，中国采购经理人指数和澳大利亚的劳动力数据。

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事实速览

• 即将到来的 美联储的政策决定 并密切关注新闻发布会，以获取有关潜在降息时机的指导，这将对美国国债收益率和美元走向产生影响。
• 广泛 美元抛售加剧 在过去 48 小时内。此举恰逢关税言论再起，对外汇干预言论的敏感度提高。
• ISM 制造业 PMI 定于2月2日星期一发布，ISM服务业采购经理人指数定于2月4日星期三公布，这为美国的增长势头提供了及时的见解。
• 德国消费者价格指数、欧元区国内生产总值和失业率、中国采购经理人指数和澳大利亚劳动力数据提供了区域背景，尤其是欧元和澳元交叉盘的数据。

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美元/日元

要看什么

美联储的决定和随后的新闻发布会是影响美国国债收益率的关键事件。

围绕通胀进展、经济风险或降息时机预期的任何基调变化都可能影响收益率差异和短期美元的敏感度。

近期美元普遍疲软，加上与关税相关的头条新闻和干预敏感性，加剧了美元的下行压力。

在日元方面，日本的通货膨胀信号，包括东京消费者价格指数，是国内价格趋势和潜在政策方向的指标。

重要新闻稿和活动

• 1 月 30 日星期四: 日本东京消费者价格指数（一月）
• 1 月 30 日星期四: 美联储的政策决定和新闻发布会
• 2 月 2 日星期一: 美国ISM制造业采购经理人指数
• 2 月 4 日星期三: 美国ISM服务业采购经理人指数

技术快照

美元兑日元已从最近的盘整区间下跌，在过去的48小时内，下行区间明显。价格已下跌至200指数移动平均线（EMA），并且正在测试自2025年10月以来从未见过的水平。

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欧元/美元

要看什么

美联储的决定和新闻发布会可能主要通过与美国国债收益率反应相关的美元走势来影响欧元/美元。

在欧元方面，德国消费者价格指数将显示通货膨胀趋势，而欧元区的GDP和失业数据将为该地区的增长前景提供信息。

重要新闻稿和活动

• 1 月 29 日星期四: 德国消费者价格指数（初步）
• 1 月 29 日星期四: 欧元区国内生产总值快报，2025年第四季度
• 1 月 30 日星期四: 美联储的决定和新闻发布会
• 1 月 30 日星期五: 欧元区失业率

技术快照

欧元兑美元已延续至先前的阻力位上方，每日区间扩大，势头强劲。其他美元交叉盘的价格走势表明，此举可能反映了美元的疲软，而不是欧元区基本面的实质性变化。

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欧元/澳元

要看什么

在澳大利亚央行下周做出政策决定之前，除了欧元区的增长数据外，澳大利亚的就业数据可能会影响近期欧元/澳元的敏感度。

中国的官方采购经理人指数仍然具有重要意义，因为中国活动预期的变化可以通过大宗商品需求和地区风险情绪影响澳元。

重要新闻稿和活动

• 1 月 29 日星期四: 澳大利亚劳动力，详细（2025年12月），澳大利亚东部夏令时间上午11点30分
• 1 月 31 日星期五: 中国官方制造业和非制造业采购经理人指数
• 2 月 4 日星期二: 澳洲联储的政策决定

技术快照

欧元/澳元已果断跌破先前的支撑区域，目前价格正在测试自2025年4月以来从未见过的水平。势头仍然为负，与新的下行阶段相一致，而不是盘整。

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底线

美联储的决定和新闻发布会、美国采购经理人指数数据、德国通胀报告、中国采购经理人指数和澳大利亚的劳动力数据集中在短时间内。

市场将关注美元在过去48小时内明显的疲软是否会进一步延续。

预计收益日期： 2026年1月29日星期四（美国，收盘后）/2026年1月30日星期五早些时候（澳大利亚东部夏令时间）

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重点领域

苹果手机

iPhone仍然是苹果最大的收入驱动力。市场可能会关注单位需求、产品组合（包括高端车型）以及任何有关升级势头和区域趋势的信号。

服务

投资者可能会关注App Store、iCloud、苹果音乐和其他订阅等领域的增长，以及对每位用户平均收入（ARPU）的任何评论。Apple 用户群的规模和参与度仍然是整体性能的核心。

可穿戴设备、家居和配饰

该细分市场包括苹果手表、AirPods、Beats耳机、家居相关设备和配件等产品。投资者可能会将该细分市场的收入趋势视为全权消费者需求的指标。

成本和利润框架

管理层在先前的评论中指出了关税和零部件成本压力。市场可能对毛利率评论以及任何增量成本压力或缓解策略的信号保持敏感。

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上个季度发生了什么

苹果最新的季度更新（2025财年第四季度）突显了创纪录的9月季度收入和每股收益，以及创纪录的服务收入和对装机基础实力的持续关注。

之前的更新还包括对假日季度预期和成本不利因素（包括关税）的讨论，这些因素影响了预期利润率和管理层指导。

最新财报主要亮点

• 收入: 102.5 亿美元
• 每股收益（EPS）: 1.85 美元（摊薄）
• iPhone 收入: 490.3 亿美元
• 服务收入: 287.5 亿美元
• 净收入: 275 亿美元

上次市场反应如何

苹果股价在盘后交易中上涨，原因是投资者根据分析师的预期和管理层的假日季度评论（包括与关税相关的成本压力和区域需求方面的考虑）对业绩进行了评估。

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本季度的预期

彭博社的共识表明，每股收益将同比增长，鉴于假日季度的规模和对苹果收益状况的重要性，市场也将重点放在收入结果和毛利率上。

彭博共识参考点（2026年1月）：

• EPS: 大约 2.65 美元
• 收入: 大约 1380 亿美元
• FY2026 全年每股收益: 大约 8.1 美元

*截至2026年1月26日观察到的所有上述观点。

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期望

鉴于苹果的指数权重庞大以及本报告期的重要性，围绕苹果的情绪可能会对假日季度收入、服务业势头或利润率评论的任何失望情绪敏感。

根据澳大利亚东部夏令时间2026年1月25日上午11点在Barchart上观察到的近期现价期权隐含的预期走势估计，上市期权的指示性波动幅度约为±3％至±4％。当时的隐含波动率约为29％。

这些是市场隐含的估计（不是预测），可能会发生变化。盈利后的实际价格变动可能更大或更小。

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这对澳大利亚交易者意味着什么

苹果的收益可能会影响美国主要股指的短期情绪，尤其是与纳斯达克挂钩的产品，并有可能在发布后溢出到亚洲时段。

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重要风险说明

在美国收盘并进入亚洲早盘后，纳斯达克100（NDX）期货和相关的差价合约定价可以立即反映出流动性减弱、利差扩大，以及围绕新信息的更大幅度重新定价。

相对于正常工作时间条件，这样的环境会增加差距风险和执行不确定性。

Asia-Pacific markets head into the week with Australia’s CPI as the key domestic catalyst, Japan’s month-end inflation and activity data keeping JPY and equities in focus, and China’s official PMI providing an important read on regional growth momentum.

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Quick facts

• China: NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December 2025. Consensus for Saturday’s release is 50.2. 
• Australia: CPI, Australia (Dec) is the key local catalyst, with implications for rate expectations and AUD pricing. 
• Japan: Tokyo CPI and month-end labour/activity data keep USD/JPY and Nikkei futures in focus following last week’s BoJ meeting. 
• Global backdrop: US earnings momentum, US CPI expectations and geopolitical developments remain secondary but relevant drivers for Asia-Pacific risk sentiment.

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China

Attention turns to China’s official PMI after December’s improvement saw the PMI move back above 50—a level commonly interpreted as expansion in the survey, though month-to-month readings can be volatile. 

Consensus suggests a rise to 50.2; if met, it may help reinforce the view that growth momentum is stabilising into early 2026. 

Key release

• Sat 31 Jan: NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI (Jan)

How markets may respond

• Regional equities and risk: Sustained PMI readings above 50 could support broader Asia risk appetite and materials-linked sectors. A reversal below 50 may temper recent optimism.
• AUD spillover: China-sensitive assets, including the AUD and materials stocks on the ASX, may react alongside domestic CPI outcomes.

Japan

Following last week’s BoJ meeting, focus shifts to Tokyo CPI and month-end activity data. These releases late in the week may shape near-term expectations around Japan’s inflation trajectory and the tone of the dataflow.

Key events

• Thu 29 Jan: Tokyo CPI (Jan) (medium sensitivity) 
• Fri 30 Jan: Japan unemployment (Dec), retail sales (Dec), industrial production (Dec) (medium sensitivity) 

How markets may respond

• USD/JPY: Month-end inflation and activity data can drive front-end rate repricing, with USD/JPY remaining a key transmission channel.
• JP225 (Nikkei futures): The contract has recently traded in a defined range. Market participants may monitor the ~54,250 area on the upside and ~52,250 on the downside as reference points, with price action around these levels often used to gauge whether the range is persisting. 

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Australia

Australia’s week is dominated by the CPI release.  The outcome may influence rate expectations, with the next scheduled RBA decision still in the balance.

ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures imply around a 56% probability of a cash-rate increase at the next scheduled RBA decision (implied pricing can change quickly and is not a forecast). 

AUD pricing is likely to remain sensitive alongside broader global risk conditions. 

Key release

• Wed 28 Jan: CPI, Australia (Dec) (high sensitivity) 

How markets may respond

• ASX 200: Rate-sensitive sectors may react more to the policy implications than the headline CPI number, particularly given recent strength in materials.
• AUD/USD: CPI outcomes may influence whether AUD/USD sustains around/above its current zone or drifts back toward prior trading ranges. 

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

The Tesla earnings release can act as a barometer for both global EV demand and capital-intensive innovation across automation and energy systems.

Vehicle deliveries and margins are likely to be the primary near-term drivers of sentiment. Investors will also be watching updates across adjacent initiatives that may influence longer-term growth expectations.

Autonomy and software (FSD)

Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) is a branded advanced driver-assistance feature sold in some markets and requires active driver supervision; availability and capabilities vary by jurisdiction. 

Further rollout and any expansion of autonomy-linked services remain subject to regulatory approvals and continued evolution of the underlying technology.

Energy generation and storage

Solar, Powerwall and Megapack remain a key focus, particularly given the segment’s recent growth contribution. 

Robotics (Optimus)

Optimus remains early stage, with no disclosed revenue contribution to date. It may become more relevant to Tesla’s longer-term AI and automation aspirations. 

Expectations remain delicately balanced between near-term margin pressure, the impact of demand and interest rate movements, and longer-term product and platform developments.

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What happened last quarter?

In Q3 2025 (September quarter), Tesla reported mixed results versus consensus expectations. Revenue and deliveries reached record levels, while earnings and margins remained under pressure amid pricing and cost dynamics. 

Tesla said it was navigating a challenging pricing environment while continuing to invest for long-term growth (as referenced in the shareholder communications cited below). 

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: ~US$28.1 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): ~US$0.50 (non-GAAP, diluted) 
• Total GAAP gross margin: ~18.0%; 
• Operating margin: ~5.8% 
• Free cash flow (FCF): ~US$4.0 billion 
• Vehicle deliveries: ~497,099 units, up ~7% year on year (YoY) 

How did the market react last time?

Tesla shares were volatile in after-hours trading, with attention focused on margins relative to revenue. 

What’s expected this quarter?

As of mid-January 2026, third-party consensus estimates (Bloomberg) indicated continued focus on revenue growth alongside profitability and margin resilience. These are third-party estimates, not company guidance, and can change. 

Key consensus reference points include: 

• Revenue: market expectations ~US$27 billion to US$28 billion 
• EPS: consensus clustered near US$0.55 to US$0.60 (adjusted) 
• Deliveries: market estimates ~510,000 to 520,000 vehicles 
• Margins: focus on whether automotive gross margin stabilises near recent levels or trends lower 
• Capital expenditure (capex): focus on spending discipline and efficiency rather than acceleration 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

Key areas markets often focus on include:

• Profit margin trajectory, and whether cost efficiencies are offsetting pricing pressure
• Delivery volumes relative to consensus expectations
• Pricing strategy and evidence of demand elasticity across regions
• Capex and implications for future FCF
• Progress in energy storage and non-automotive revenue streams
• Commentary on AI, autonomy and longer-term investment priorities

Expectations

Market sentiment could be described as cautiously optimistic, with investors weighing revenue momentum against margin concerns.

Price has pulled back into a range following a brief test of recent highs in December. Given the recent range-bound price action, deviations from consensus across key earnings metrics may prompt a larger move in either direction.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±5.5% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money (ATM) options-implied expected move estimate.

Implied volatility (IV) was about 47.7% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:30 am AEDT on 16 January 2026 (local time of observation). 

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Tesla’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US growth and technology indices, with potential flow-through to broader risk appetite.

For Australian markets, any read-through is often framed through supply chain sensitivity. Market participants may look to related sectors such as lithium and rare earth producers linked to EV inputs are one potential channel, alongside broader sentiment impacts from Tesla’s innovation commentary.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Intelligent Cloud (Azure)

Azure remains Microsoft’s primary earnings swing factor. Markets are watching to see whether any growth reflects demand strength or capacity constraints, and how AI-related workloads are impacting margins.

Productivity and Business Processes

Microsoft 365, Office, and LinkedIn are sources of recurring revenue for Microsoft. Growth, pricing discipline, and client churn remain the key variables that markets will be watching.

Personal Computing

Windows, devices, and gaming are more cyclical. Stabilisation of PC demand and gaming engagement remain secondary sources of revenue but are still noteworthy.

Artificial intelligence

Approaches around the monetisation of Microsoft’s AI play are still developing. Trends in enrolment and infrastructure cost are expected to be key factors.

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What happened last quarter

Microsoft reported results ahead of consensus, supported by steady cloud demand and resilient enterprise software revenues. 

Azure and other cloud services' growth remained a central focus, alongside commentary on AI-related investment and capacity.

Last earnings key highlights:

• Revenue: US$77.7 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$3.72 (GAAP) and US$4.13 (non-GAAP adjusted) 
• Intelligent Cloud revenue: US$30.9 billion
• Azure and other cloud services: up 40% year on year 
• Operating income: US$38.0 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading following the release, despite the beating of headline numbers, as investors focused on AI investment intensity, capacity constraints and related implications for future margins.

What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued revenue growth led by cloud services, alongside broadly stable margins despite elevated capex.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• Revenue: about US$68 to US$69 billion 
• EPS: about US$3.10 to US$3.20 (adjusted) 
• Azure growth: mid-to-high 20% year on year (YoY) (constant currency) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain broadly stable 
• Capex: expected to remain elevated, reflecting AI and cloud build-out 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment appears cautious. Microsoft can remain sensitive to any cloud, margin, or guidance disappointment, particularly where investors interpret investment intensity as open-ended.

Price action traded within an established range of US$472 and US$490 recently, but has moved below this in the last week.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±2% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 33.5% annualised into the event as observed on Barchart at 11:00 AEDT on 16^th January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change; actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Microsoft’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into global equity risk appetite and, in turn, the ASX.

As a major technology stock, and with Tesla (TSLA) also scheduled to report after the US close on the same day, volatility in Nasdaq-linked products may increase while futures markets remain open.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Advertising (Family of Apps)

Advertising remains Meta’s dominant revenue driver. AI-driven ad targeting, Reels monetisation, and engagement efficiency can be important contributors to revenue growth and may support advertiser outcomes, noting results can vary by advertiser, format, and market conditions.

User engagement and monetisation

Engagement trends across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads remain closely watched as indicators that can influence monetisation assumptions and medium-term expectations.

Artificial intelligence

Meta views AI as a foundation for content discovery, advertising performance, and the development of generative tools. Markets may continue to evaluate whether AI-driven gains offset the level of infrastructure and data centre investment required to support these projects.

Reality Labs

Reality Labs remains loss-making. Management continues to frame AR/VR and metaverse-related platforms as long-term strategic investments, while acknowledging continued operating losses and a drag on earnings performance.

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What happened last quarter

Meta’s most recent quarterly update highlighted strong revenue growth alongside ongoing investment themes. 

The company’s reported (GAAP) net income and EPS reflected a one-time, non-cash income tax charge disclosed in the earnings materials, while management commentary also emphasised cost discipline and investment priorities.

Operating margins expanded year-on-year, despite elevated AI-related investment.

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$51.24 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.05 (GAAP) 
• Advertising revenue: US$50.08 billion 
• Operating margin: 40% 
• Reality Labs operating loss: about US$4.43 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Meta shares fell in after-hours trading after the release. Commentary at the time highlighted strong top-line outcomes, alongside investor focus on the outlook for spending and the pace of AI and infrastructure investment.

What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued year-on-year revenue growth, led by advertising, with operating margins expected to remain elevated despite ongoing AI and infrastructure expenditure.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026)

• Revenue: about US$41 to US$43 billion 
• EPS: about US$4.80 to US$5.10 (adjusted) 
• Advertising growth: high-teens year on year (YoY) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain above 40% 
• Capital expenditure (capex): elevated, reflecting AI and data centre investment 

*All above points observed as of 23 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment around Meta Platforms may be sensitive to any disappointment around advertising demand, margin sustainability, or the scale of ongoing investment in AI and Reality Labs.

Recent price action suggests that some market participants appear to be pricing in a relatively constructive earnings outcome, which can increase sensitivity to negative surprises.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±3% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 31% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 23 January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Meta’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into broader global equity risk appetite and index-linked products traded during the Asia session after the release, which can be volatile and unpredictable following earnings events.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.