Headline beats won't cut it: Wall Street wants proof that massive AI spending delivers real margins.
With the S&P 500 entering third-quarter earnings season against a backdrop of strong recent corporate results, artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure spending and concentrated mega-cap technology momentum, markets are looking beyond headline earnings per share (EPS). Key signals include forward guidance, margins, capital expenditure (CapEx) plans and post-release price action across the US earnings season.
Follow the companies and themes shaping US earnings season.
Use this guide to follow the key themes, companies and cross-market signals shaping the quarterly reporting cycle.
Start here, choose your earnings lens
Earnings can be read through several different lenses. These four themes provide a framework for following the reporting season.
Tech
Watch AI chips, cloud revenue, CapEx and guidance from major semiconductor and infrastructure companies.
Macro moves
Watch investment banking fees, consumer credit provisions, net interest income and sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy.
Volatility lens
Watch after-hours moves, guidance surprises, sector rotation and whether earnings gaps persist into the market open.
ASX spillover
Watch how US earnings flow through the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, US dollar, yields and the next Australian market session.
The big picture: S&P 500 earnings growth
Earnings expectations remain elevated heading into the third-quarter reporting season.
According to FactSet's 18 September Earnings Insight, the S&P 500 was expected to deliver 28.9% year-on-year (YoY) earnings growth for the third quarter of 2026. If realised, it would mark an eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.
That leaves investors weighing headline results against the expectations already reflected in equity valuations. Guidance, margins and the outlook for future investment may therefore matter as much as the reported quarter itself.
Source: FactSet Earnings Insight
Disclaimer & Sources: Reporting dates, release times, and financial data are subject to sudden change without notice. Traders should always verify live platform schedules prior to trading. GO Markets has taken every precaution to ensure information accuracy. Primary data sources include Bloomberg, TradingView, Earnings Whispers, FactSet, and official company disclosures.
- Are earnings growing fast enough to support current equity valuations?
- Is AI capital expenditure translating into measurable cloud revenue and margins?
- What are major banks signalling about corporate and consumer credit conditions?
- How is the US consumer responding to changing interest-rate expectations?
- What does management guidance suggest about revenue and margins in the quarters ahead?
A strong headline result accompanied by cautious guidance may still be followed by downside volatility while a softer headline result with stronger forward commentary may attract a different market response.
That is why earnings season is not only about the reported numbers, it's the market's reaction to what comes next can matter just as much.
The companies in focus
Attention is concentrated on companies that can influence expectations across global finance, AI hardware, cloud infrastructure and consumer sentiment.
The below watchlist is organised around three broad themes, plus a standalone volatility focus.
Wall Street and banking signals
Major banks are among the first large companies to report each quarter. Their results can provide information on credit conditions, consumer spending, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and trading activity. Explore our US Bank Stocks Watchlist for detailed sector insights.
Net interest income guidance, consumer credit provisions, card spending and investment banking fees.
Advisory activity, fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) trading, equities trading and asset management margins.
Consumer lending, deposit pricing sensitivity to Fed rate policy, investment banking and sales and trading commentary.
Disclaimer & Sources: Reporting dates, release times, and financial data are subject to sudden change without notice. Traders should always verify live platform schedules prior to trading. GO Markets has taken every precaution to ensure information accuracy. Primary data sources include Bloomberg, TradingView, Earnings Whispers, FactSet, and official company disclosures.
Key question: What are the major banks signalling about financial resilience and credit risk?
Semiconductors and the AI infrastructure engine
Semiconductor and custom silicon providers sit close to the centre of the AI investment cycle. Their results can help show whether demand for graphics processing units (GPUs), networking equipment and enterprise AI infrastructure is continuing to expand. Read our analysis on top semiconductor suppliers.
Blackwell shipments, Data Center demand, gross margins and sovereign AI demand. See Nvidia vs Google TPU analysis.
Custom AI accelerators, Ethernet networking growth and VMware margins.
US commercial growth, Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) conversions and government contract backlog execution.
Disclaimer & Sources: Reporting dates, release times, and financial data are subject to sudden change without notice. Traders should always verify live platform schedules prior to trading. GO Markets has taken every precaution to ensure information accuracy. Primary data sources include Bloomberg, TradingView, Earnings Whispers, FactSet, and official company disclosures.
Key question: Is AI infrastructure demand continuing to expand, and what evidence is emerging around enterprise returns?
Big Tech hyperscalers and AI returns
Hyperscaler results provide another view of the AI investment cycle. Their quarterly reports can show whether infrastructure spending is translating into cloud, software, search and advertising revenue. For more context, see AI spending vs revenue dynamics and Big Tech earnings preview.
Azure growth, Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption, commercial cloud demand and cloud margins.
Advertising growth, AI-driven advertising tools, infrastructure spending and Reality Labs operating losses.
Google Cloud growth, Search advertising, generative AI competition and Gemini adoption.
Disclaimer & Sources: Reporting dates, release times, and financial data are subject to sudden change without notice. Traders should always verify live platform schedules prior to trading. GO Markets has taken every precaution to ensure information accuracy. Primary data sources include Bloomberg, TradingView, Earnings Whispers, FactSet, and official company disclosures.
Key question: Can cloud and advertising growth keep pace with elevated infrastructure investment?
Standalone EV and consumer volatility focus
Tesla sits across several market themes, including consumer discretionary demand, electric vehicle margins, energy storage and autonomous driving investment. See our Tesla & K-Shaped Consumer Playbook.
Automotive gross margins excluding regulatory credits, vehicle deliveries, energy storage deployment and autonomous driving investment.
Disclaimer & Sources: Reporting dates, release times, and financial data are subject to sudden change without notice. Traders should always verify live platform schedules prior to trading. GO Markets has taken every precaution to ensure information accuracy. Primary data sources include Bloomberg, TradingView, Earnings Whispers, FactSet, and official company disclosures.
How earnings can affect global markets
Growth and technology sentiment
Big Tech and semiconductor earnings can influence the Nasdaq 100 and wider technology sentiment. Guidance becomes particularly relevant when it changes expectations for cloud demand, custom silicon orders and data centre investment.
Market breadth and equity leadership
Earnings can help show whether market participation is broadening beyond the largest technology companies. The S&P 500 provides a broad market view, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average adds exposure to financials, industrials and other established sectors.
Cross-asset flow-through
Major earnings surprises can also affect foreign exchange, fixed income and commodities through changes in risk sentiment and interest-rate expectations. The US dollar and Treasury yields may respond to shifts in the macro outlook, while gold and crude oil remain influenced by their own fundamental drivers.
ASX market open flow-through
For Australian markets, overnight US earnings can shape early sentiment before the 10:00 am AEDT open. ASX-listed technology, financial and materials shares may respond to broader Wall Street moves during the Asia-Pacific trading session.
Bottom line
Headline earnings surprises can create immediate volatility, but markets also weigh the longer-term corporate outlook.
Attention is likely to remain on AI investment returns, Big Tech margins, bank credit commentary and whether forward guidance supports the expectations already reflected in equity valuations.
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