Notícias de mercado & insights
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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
On the 9th of March 2023, the Bank of Canada (BoC) released its monetary policy decision to keep rates at 4.50%. In the accompanying statement, the BoC indicated that it expected pressures in product and labour markets to ease as inflation growth signaled a slowdown. It also highlighted that while the BoC was assessing the impact of past interest rate hikes, it would be ready to hike rates again if required to bring inflation down to the 2% target level.
The Candian Median CPI y/y is expected to be released at 4.8% (Previous 5.0%) while Trimmed CPI y/y is expected at 4.9% (Previous 5.1%). If the inflation data is released as expected or lower, this could see the Canadian dollar weaken briefly as the likelihood of future rate hikes from the BoC diminishes. However, the directional bias of the USDCAD would be heavily dependent on the volatility of the DXY.
As the USDCAD trades within a symmetrical triangle pattern, the release of the CPI data could see breakout potential in either direction. If the price trades higher beyond 1.3750 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level could see the USDCAD resume with the uptrend to retest the key resistance level of 1.3860. Alternatively, if the CPI data signals increasing inflation growth, the USDCAD could break the support level of 1.3660 and trade significantly lower, down toward the 1.35 key support level, especially if the DXY continues to weaken.
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) announced its financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2022 before the opening bell in the US on Thursday. The American software company reported revenue of $4.433 billion, falling slightly short of Wall Street forecast of $4.438 billion. Earnings per share reported at $3.40 per share for the quarter, above analyst estimate of $3.345 per share. ''Fueled by our ground-breaking technology, track record of creating and leading categories and consistent execution, Adobe delivered another record quarter,'' Shantanu Narayen, chairman and CEO of Adobe said in a press release. ''Adobe achieved record revenue and strong profitability in the quarter, demonstrating that our products are mission-critical to individuals, small businesses and the world’s largest enterprises,'' said Dan Durn, executive vice president and CFO of the company. ''Our operational rigor combined with our strong engine of innovation are driving growth across our platforms and will fuel future growth as the digital economy continues to expand,'' Durn added.
The company repurchased approximately 5.1 million shares during the quarter. Adobe also announced that it has entered into final stages to acquire Figma, a web-first collaborative design platform for around $20 billion in cash and stock. ''Adobe’s greatness has been rooted in our ability to create new categories and deliver cutting-edge technologies through organic innovation and inorganic acquisitions,'' ''The combination of Adobe and Figma is transformational and will accelerate our vision for collaborative creativity,'' Shantanu Narayen commented on the acquisition of Figma. Adobe Inc. (ADBE) chart Shares of Adobe were down by around 15% on Thursday, trading at $313.35 a share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -29.45% 3 months -15.16% Year-to-date -45.38% 1 year -53.43% Adobe price targets UBS $415 Stifel $500 Baird $450 Deutsche Bank $500 Wells Fargo $425 Mizuho $480 Citigroup $388 Barclays: $440 Adobe is the 70 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $144.34 billion. You can trade Adobe Inc. (ADBE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Adobe Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Salesforce financial results announced Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) reported its latest financial results for its fiscal second quarter on Wednesday. World’s leading customer relationship management (CRM) company reported revenue of $7.72 billion (up 22% year-over-year) vs. $7.692 billion expected. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $1.19 per share for the quarter vs. $1.03 per share expected. ''We had another strong quarter, with revenue of $7.7B growing 22% year-over-year and 26% in constant currency, showing yet again the durability of our business model,'' Marc Benioff, Chair and Co-CEO of Salesforce said following the latest results. ''And, we’re thrilled to initiate our first-ever share repurchase program to continue to deliver incredible value to our shareholders on our path to $50 billion in revenue in FY26,'' Benioff added. ''Our results demonstrate the strength and diversity of our product portfolio across regions, industries and segments,'' said Bret Taylor, Co-CEO of Salesforce. ''In this more measured buying environment, our Customer 360 portfolio is even more strategic and relevant as our customers focus on productivity, efficiency and time to value,'' Taylor concluded.
The company expects revenue of $7.82 to $7.83 billion for the fiscal third quarter Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) chart The stock was up by 2.28% at the end of Wednesday’s session at $180.19 a share. The stock fell by around 5% in the after-hours due to future outlook. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -0.16% 3 months +12.75% Year-to-date -29.17% 1 year -30.99% Salesforce price targets Citigroup $189 BMO Capital $223 Mizuho $245 Morgan Stanley $273 Piper Sandler $220 Deutsche Bank $260 JP Morgan $275 Barclays $218 Wells Fargo $235 Salesforce.com Inc. is the 58 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $179.10 billion.
You can trade Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Salesforce.com Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
XAUUSD Analysis 10 – 14 April 2023 The gold price outlook is positive in the medium term. As last week's closing of the buying bar was above the 1960 support or the latest high in price on the Weekly timeframe, it indicates continued buying momentum that will allow the price of gold to recover. It can rise further to test the 2070 resistance level, which is a key resistance at the weekly time frame level or the price level that gold has ever hit the most in history.
But even so, the price of gold remains negative in the short term. There may be a fall to adjust the consolidation or sideways around the 1985 and 1976 support, which are important support levels in the H4 and H1 timeframes that are worth watching. because if the price cannot go down deeper than the above two support levels The direction of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Corresponds to the large timeframe in the medium term where the price is Up Trend.
And in the event that the price of gold cannot continue to rise, but there is a breakout of the 1985 and 1976 support levels, it can come down with continuous selling pressure. Daytime support at the 1960 price level or the latest price high in the Weekly timeframe are the next targets to watch. AUDUSD Analysis 10 – 14 April 2023 AUDNZD price bears a negative view on the short and medium term.
Due to the continuous decline in the Weekly timeframe, the price is likely to bear down and can continue to fall. After the price has corrected sideways on the Daily timeframe, when looking at the H4 timeframe, a sharp swing of the price can be seen, which is a sideways movement between support 1.06730 and resistance 1.07930. Rara then broke out the support 1.06730 down with a sell candlestick with more momentum than a buy candlestick.
Therefore, it can be expected that Price may continue to decline to retest the support 1.04690 or the previous Low on the Weekly timeframe. GBPUSD Analysis 10 – 14 April 2023 The GBPUSD trend is currently rallying to test the 1.24470 resistance with continued buying momentum as seen by the weekly timeframe buying pressure candlestick, although last week's closing price was truncated. Any intestine dumper Still, the price has yet to show a strong sell candle on the Weekly timeframe, indicating a clear uptrend in both the short and medium term.
Forecasting that price, there is a tendency for the price to correct sideways at the 1.24470 resistance area before rising to test the next resistance at 1.26660 on the daily timeframe level, where the key support is 1.22700, which is the time level support. The H4 frame predicts that the price may retrace to test. If the price cannot stand on the resistance of 1.24470 and continue to rise
Equity markets US markets dipped last night with the Dow finishing down for the first time in 4 sessions. This came as the streak of better-than-expected economic data came to an end with initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumping to a one-month high last week. Retail giant and Dow 30 component Walmart (WMT) also weighed on the index dropping 6.5 per cent after it missed quarterly profit estimates and predicted a low-single digit rise in fiscal 2022 net sales.
Source: Yahoo Finance Whilst US Markets are flat for the week, UK and Asian equity markets have performed well with signs of China's economic recovery continuing lifting the Hang Seng and good news on UK vaccination progress sending the FTSE 100 higher. Source: Bloomberg The ASX200 again hit post COVID highs this week before pulling back slightly. Optimism in the Australian economic recovery was bolstered this week with another drop in the unemployment rate and vaccine rollouts imminent.
Forex markets FX markets were mixed this week, the US dollar strengthened modestly against most major currencies, with the exceptions of CAD, AUD and GBP. Source: Bloomberg Resource linked currencies AUD and CAD performed well as prices for Copper and Iron ore continued to run hot, with increased demand from China and ongoing COVID related supply issues underpinning the price of these resources. Source: marketindex.com.au GBP outperformed this week amid continued optimism over the nation’s vaccine rollout, with the pound touching the highest level versus the euro since March last year.
Source: GO MT4 Commodities Gold Spot gold (XAUUSD) continued its downtrend setting a new low price for 2021 and within touching distance of the lows set in November. With markets risk on as vaccines rollout and positive signs of an global economic recovery the lustre has been taken off the precious metal for now. Source: GO MT4 Oil US crude prices broke above $60 per barrel touching as high as $62, a level not seen since January 2020.
Severe winter storms and rolling blackouts in the oil producing state of Texas have crippled the oil industry, causing an output drop of more than 4 million barrels a day - almost 40% of the nation’s crude production. Monday, 22 February 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0.821 6.645 0.323 0.011 0 0 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.131
We had an eventful week on global markets with the inauguration of a new US administration and a dovish stance from the European Central bank fuelling hopes of extended fiscal stimulus in the new year. Equity markets Risk appetite got a boost this week from a push by US authorities for nearly $2 trillion in additional spending and plans to jumpstart a federal response to the COVID pandemic. US equity markets had the best post inauguration performance since the 1980’s driving the S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ indices to record highs.
The NASDAQ was also helped along by big beats from Netflix and Intel who reported earnings this week. With this lead Australia's share market hit 11-month highs, with help from an improved unemployment rate supporting investor optimism. European markets also performed well after ECB’s decision to reconfirm its very accommodative monetary policy last night.
Source: Twitter COVID With Executive Orders from the new US administration seeking to accelerate the rollout of vaccines and the seeming peak in US COVID cases there was optimism this week from major Wall St analysts that we could be seeing “the beginning of the end of the COVID crisis" in the US. Goldman's top economist Jan Hatzius, writes that "a vaccine-driven reduction in hospitalizations is likely to kick off the growth rebound through relaxed restrictions and some reductions involuntary consumer social distancing." Source: Zerohedge Forex market While record planned US stimulus helped push equities higher it also created a headwind for the US Dollar which continued its downtrend. All major currencies performed strongly against the greenback this week.
Source: Bloomberg Aussie Dollar AUDUSD strengthened this week driven by US dollar weakness and a better than expected unemployment rate of 6.6% indicating continued recovery of the Australian economy from the COVID economic shock. AUD is trading in a tight range and has managed to hold the important 0.77c support level. Gold Spot gold (XAUUSD) had a strong week on the back of US dollar weakness and stimulus hopes, it bounced strongly from the 1820 -1800 support zone making 2 week highs and being up around 2% for the week at time of writing.
Negotiations in the US on the particulars of the proposed stimulus bill and positive or negative news on regarding COVID are expected to play a part in the next few weeks of future price movements. Source: GO MT4 Cryptocurrencies It was a tough week for Cryptos with flag bearing tokens Bitcoin and Ethereum among others sliding dramatically after recent stellar rallies. Bitcoin dropped 10% alone on Thursday and down almost 20% on the week.
The drop seems to be a long overdue correction and sustained profit taking, it wasn’t helped on Thursday by a report in a trade blog suggesting that there had been what’s known as a double purchase, where the same “coin” is used in two separate transactions. This rumour went viral casting doubt on the security of the Bitcoin blockchain. Industry veterans and people familiar with blockchain technology downplayed the notion, but with so many new investors with a poor understanding of blockchain technology the damage was done.
From a chart technician's point of view, Bitcoin broke the lower barrier of the wedge pattern it has been consolidating in and has headed to the important 30000 support level. Source: GO MT4 Monday, 25 January 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0 0 0 0.012 0 0 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0