Notícias de mercado & insights
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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
World’s largest sporting goods company, Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) reported fiscal 2023 financial results for its third quarter after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. Nike beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter ending February 28, 2023. Revenue reported at $12.4 billion (up by 14% year-over-year) vs. $11.482 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.79 per share (down by 9% year-over-year) vs. $0.555 per share expected. CEO commentary "NIKE’s strong results in the third quarter offer continued proof of the success of our Consumer Direct Acceleration strategy," said John Donahoe, CEO of the company said in a press release. "Fueled by compelling product innovation, deep relationships with consumers and a digital advantage that fuels brand momentum, our proven playbook allows us to navigate volatility as we create value and drive long-term growth," Donahoe concluded his statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock rose by 3.64% on Tuesday, trading at $125.50 a share.
Share price fell by around 2% in the after-hours. Stock performance 1 month: +3.72% 3 months: +21.70% Year-to-date: +7.35% 1 year: -5.62% Nike stock price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $138 Redburn Partners: $100 Barclays: $110 Morgan Stanley: $140 Oppenheimer: $150 RBC Capital: $145 Wells Fargo: $146 JP Morgan: $156 HSBC: $125 Nike is the 49 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $194.76 billion. You can trade Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Nike, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
As the banking crisis subside slightly with the news of First Citizens bank’s acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the DXY has reversed from the 103.50 price area, resuming the previous downtrend and currently trades at 102.60. This move lower on the DXY has resulted in the major currencies reversing on the lost ground to gain briefly against the US dollar. The short-term directional bias of the NZDUSD is likely to be driven primarily by the volatility of the DXY as there are no major news events on the near-term horizon for the NZD, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cash rate decision due on 5th April.
The interest rate in New Zealand is currently at 4.75% and the RBNZ had previously indicated that it expects rates to peak at 5.50%, highlighting the possibility for further rate increases at this upcoming meeting. Recent price action on the NZDUSD has seen price trading higher to form higher lows while the MACD oscillator creates progressive lower lows. This movement of price and the indicator has developed into a hidden bullish divergence, which signals further upside potential for the NZDUSD.
Furthermore, the price has also broken through the 0.62 round number level, turning the resistance to a support level. The immediate target level for this bullish divergence could be at the next round number resistance level of 0.63, which was the previous swing high, and beyond that the 0.64 resistance area, which was last tested in February 2023.
Lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) announced Q4 and full-year earnings results on Wednesday. World’s second largest sporting goods company reported revenue of $2.772 billion for the quarter (up by 30% year-over-year or 33% on a constant currency basis) vs. $2.701 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst expectations at $4.40 per share (up by 30.5% year-over-year) vs. $4.259 per share expected.
Full-year revenue reported at $8.1 billion (up by 30% vs. 2021), EPS at $10.07 per share. Lululemon expects revenue of $1.890 billion to $1.930 billion for Q1. EPS expected to be between $1.93 to $2.00 for the quarter.
CEO and CFO commentary "In the fourth quarter and full year 2022, we delivered strong results across the business driven by our innovative products, powerful guest experiences, and strategic market expansion. Our continued high level of performance is a reflection of the hard work and agility of our incredible teams and the deep connections they create with our guests and communities around the world. As we enter 2023, we look forward to another year of strong momentum across the globe and delivering on our Power of Three ×2 growth plan," Calvin McDonald, CEO of the company said in a press release.
Meghan Frank, CFO of Lululemon also commented on the latest results and delivering for its shareholders: "We are pleased with our performance in the fourth quarter, which remained balanced across product category, channel, and regions. Our ability to exceed our annual revenue target in a dynamic operating environment is a testament to the enduring strength of the lululemon brand. Looking ahead, we remain optimistic regarding our ability to deliver sustained growth and long-term value for all our stakeholders." The latest results had a positive impact on the stock price.
Shares were up by +12.72% at the end the trading session on Wednesday at $360.87 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +16.66% 3 months: +16.86% Year-to-date: +12.69% 1 year: -4.21% Lululemon price targets TD Cowen: $500 Baird: $425 B of A Securities: $410 BMO Capital: $340 Credit Suisse: $420 Stifel: $460 Wells Fargo: $425 Guggenheim: $440 Citigroup: $440 Telsey Advisory Group: $425 Keybanc: $390 Barclays: $368 JP Morgan: $430 Lululemon athletica inc. is the 358 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $46.03 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Lululemon athletica inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) announced Q1 financial results before the market open in the US on Friday. The largest bank in the US beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the first quarter of 2023, sending the stock price higher. The company reported revenue of $38.349 billion vs. forecast of $36.125 billion.
EPS reported at $4.10 per share vs. $3.414 per share expected. CEO commentary ''Our lines of business saw continued momentum in the quarter. In Consumer & Community Banking, consumer spending remained healthy with combined debit and credit card sales up 10% and card loans up 21%.
In the Corporate & Investment Bank, Markets revenue fell 4% versus a very strong prior year, and we focused on supporting clients as they navigated volatile market conditions. Global Investment Banking fees remained challenged for the industry, although we significantly outperformed the overall wallet. In Commercial Banking, we earned record revenue, with exceptionally strong Payments revenue, up 98%.
Finally, Asset & Wealth Management performed well with strong long-term inflows of $47 billion across products,'' JP Morgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon commented on the latest results. Dimon also touched on the state of the US and global economy: ''The U.S. economy continues to be on generally healthy footings —consumers are still spending and have strong balance sheets, and businesses are in good shape. However, the storm clouds that we have been monitoring for the past year remain on the horizon, and the banking industry turmoil adds to these risks.
The banking situation is distinct from 2008 as it has involved far fewer financial players and fewer issues that need to be resolved, but financial conditions will likely tighten as lenders become more conservative, and we do not know if this will slow consumer spending. We also continue to monitor for potentially higher inflation for longer (and thus higher interest rates), the inflationary impact of continued fiscal stimulus, the unprecedented quantitative tightening, and geopolitical tensions including relations with China and the unpredictable war in Ukraine. While we hope these clouds will dissipate, the Firm is prepared for a broad range of outcomes, and we are confident that we can serve the needs of our customers and clients in all environments.'' ''Finally, I want to recognize our outstanding employees across the globe.
Thanks to their efforts, we extended credit and raised $588 billion in capital in the quarter for small and large businesses, governments, and U.S. consumers, as well as efficiently onboarded a significant amount of new clients across many of our businesses,'' Dimon concluded. The stock rose after beating Wall Street expectations. Shares were up by 7.55% at the end of the trading day on Friday at $138.71 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +10.27% 3 months: -2.99% Year-to-date: +3.45% 1 year: +10.00% JP Morgan Chase & Co. price targets Barclays: $179 Evercore ISI Group: $146 Morgan Stanley: $153 RBC Capital: $132 Oppenheimer: $157 Wells Fargo: $155 Morgan Stanley: $173 Piper Sandler: $157 Deutsche Bank: $145 Barclays: $189 JP Morgan Chase & Co. is the 17 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $406.68 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: JP Morgan Chase & Co., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a popular tool used by forex traders to assess the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of other major currencies. The DXY is calculated using the weighted average of six major currencies: the euro, yen, pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. To use the DXY to trade forex, you can follow these steps: 1.
Monitor the DXY: Keep an eye on the movements of the DXY to get a sense of the overall strength or weakness of the US dollar. You can use technical analysis tools, such as moving averages or trend lines, to identify the direction of the trend. 2. Analyse currency pairs Look for forex pairs that are inversely correlated to the DXY.
This means that when the DXY goes up, the currency pair goes down, and vice versa. For example, the EUR/USD pair is negatively correlated to the DXY, which means that as the DXY goes up, the EUR/USD pair goes down. Plan your trades Once you have identified a currency pair that is inversely correlated to the DXY, you can plan your trades accordingly.
For example, if the DXY is showing signs of weakness, you may want to consider going long on a negatively correlated currency pair, such as the EUR/USD. Manage your risk As with any trading strategy, it's important to manage your risk when using the DXY to trade forex. Make sure to use stop-loss orders to limit your losses in case the market moves against you.
Currency pairs may be influenced by other factors besides the DXY, which may not be a perfect indicator of the US dollar's value. To make informed trading decisions, it is important to combine the DXY with other technical and fundamental analysis tools.
Gold had been trading strongly to the upside since the beginning of March, rising from the 1810 price area to reach the 2000 price area which was last tested in April 2022. However, after reaching the resistance area, Gold retraced lower to test the 1937.50 support area which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the bullish trendline. Currently, Gold is forming a double top chart pattern as the price again retraces from the resistance level at 2000.
With the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator signaling a potential bearish reversal, a confirmation of further downside potential could be signaled if Gold breaks below the bullish trendline. This could see the price trade lower to test the 1917 level, and beyond that, the 1887 support level which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Significant moves to the downside on Gold is likely to be driven by a recovery in the strength of the DXY, due to its inverse correlation with the reserve commodity.
Alternatively, if the market uncertainty increases, arising from further developments in the banking crisis or increased concern over possible global inflation, Gold could trade higher beyond the 2000 resistance level, which would invalidate the double-top formation. A continuation of the uptrend could see Gold trade toward the next resistance level of 2070, which was last reached in March 2022.