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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
AUD and NZD, being cyclical currencies (cyclical currencies being ones that are extra sensitive to global risk sentiment) took a big hit in Fridays session, dropping 1.1% and 1.3% respectively against the USD and remain under pressure today. Weak retail sales out of the US on Friday didn’t help risk sentiment, but the rout really started when the USD soared on hawkish comments from Fed governors, (Waller being the most forceful) which saw rate hike odds at the next Fed meeting push significantly higher. Both the Aussie and Kiwi dollars have suffered from a shift in market pricing for continuing rate hikes in the United States and Europe, with Fed Funds futures now showing an 80% chance of another Fed hike in May and flirting with the risk of a 50bp hike from the ECB as both banks Governors continue to talk tough on inflation.
AUDUSD AUDUSD is technically still in an uptrend with an upward sloping trend line still in place, AUD was helped along by stellar employment figures out of Australia last week, though the forcefulness of the rejection at the 0.68 USD resistance zone on Friday does put into question how much legs this short-term uptrend has. Traders looking to enter the AUDUSD need to keep these levels in mind, a break and hold of the major 0.68 resistance could signal a push higher and resumption of the uptrend, a solid break through the short term trend would likely see the AUDUSD test 2023 lows before finding much buying. NZDUSD The Kiwi is showing similar price action to AUDUSD, with its major resistance and an area of a real battle between the Bulls and the Bears just above the psychological 0.63 level, with some short term support around the 0.6170 level.
There was a major rejection of the 0.63 level on Friday, in similar price action to the AUD, this also pushed NZDUSD below its 100 Day SMA (which has now turned on a downward trajectory) and just holding above its support zone. Like the AUD, a break below this support zone could see the Kiwi test the 2023 lows around 0.6080 before seeing buyers come back in, any push above 0.63 is likely to see some pushback and volatility in the NZDUSD pair. AUDNZD Despite higher yields in New Zealand the AUDNZD pair has rallied strongly in recent days, helped along by some small pricing in of a RBA hike next month after the strong jobs report.
The pair has now risen well into the 1.08’s after pushing below its 10-year median of 1.07 earlier in the month, showing that AUDNZD continues to be a good buy under this level. In economic news out of Australia, the RBA Minutes form the last RBA meeting will be released tomorrow, which could give clues as to whether the hold is temporary or not, plus NZ CPI figures will be released on Thursday. Inflation figures have been very important in recent times as indicators of Central Bank actions, so we could see some excitement on this figure.
The Aussie dollar has been fairly directionless since late February with it seemingly waiting for a catalyst to break it’s ranges and take the next leg up or down, data this week has failed to provide that. This opens up a couple of very good opportunities for traders, range trading the AUDUSD and mean reversion trades on the AUDNZD. Starting with AUDUSD, we’ve seen a very strong and tight range develop between a high of 0.6818 to a low of 0.6564 since late February, with the AUD moving in unison with risk sentiment, recently a push lower in this pair has been driven by US debt ceiling concerns, and haven flows into the USD.
Using an equidistant four-part grid the buy and sell zones to take advantage of this range trading opportunity become clear. While this range continues, buying in the green zones and selling in the red zones has so far been very successful. This looks likely to continue while the aforementioned US debt ceiling impasse remains in place, though traders will need to be on top of any developments, a resolution is likely to see risk roar back and the AUD take a leg up.
The other opportunity is the relative underperformance of the AUD vs its close neighbour, NZD. This has seen AUDNZD drop below its 10 year mean of 1.07, giving mean reversion traders an opportunity to buy this pair at a discount. Weekly chart of AUDNZD, showing how this mean reversion trade has worked over the last 8 years.
To help with entries, a shorter time frame chart can be used, below is the 4-hour chart showing a strong support zone has formed between 1.0650 – 1.0580 during the last month, where price has tested on multiple occasions before moving back to the 1.07 level. These are two of my favourite trading styles I’ve used over the years, but as always, have an exit plan and keep aware of macro happenings if you are looking to incorporate this style of trading into your toolbox. AUDUSD – US debt ceiling negotiations AUDNZD – RBA and RBNZ rate expectations
In the lead-up to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision this week, the market has seen significant turmoil. Firstly from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure, followed by the news that Credit Suisse’s largest financial backer is unlikely to provide further financial support. This led to Credit Suisse stock plunging by more than 28% and taking with it, the Eurozone bond yields and the Euro.
President Lagarde from the ECB had been signaling to the market, on multiple occasions, since the previous meeting that the ECB will hike rates by 50bps at the March meeting. However, with the current uncertainty especially with the banking failures seen in the US, the market has begun pricing in the possibility that the ECB hikes rates with more caution by deciding on 35bps rather than 50bps at the March meeting. This has led the EURUSD to reverse all recent gains, turning down from the 1.0750 price level to trade along the key support level of 1.0540.
If the ECB releases a decision to hike rates by less than 50bps, this would be a major red flag to the market and also indicate a slowdown in its path of monetary policy tightening, which could see the EURUSD continue with the current downward momentum. If the price breaks below the current support level and the interim price level of 1.0440, the EURUSD could see significant moves downside, supported by the cross-over of the MACD, with the next key support level at 1.0220, which was the previous swing low in November 2022. Alternatively, if the ECB maintains its previous stance and decides to hike rates by 50bps at this meeting, the EURUSD could see brief relief.
However, it would be unlikely that the price would reverse significantly, with the current market uncertainties likely to maintain the downward pressures and the 1.08 resistance level likely to hold firm.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) announced the latest financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. The company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Walgreens reported revenue of $34.862 billion for the quarter ending February 28, 2023 (up by 3.3% year-over-year) vs. $33.528 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.16 per share (down by 27.2% year-over-year) vs. $1.103 per share estimate. CEO commentary "WBA exited a solid second quarter with acceleration in February, adding to our confidence in driving strong growth in the second half of the year. With the closing of VillageMD's acquisition of Summit Health, WBA is now one of the largest players in primary care, with best-in-class assets across the care continuum.
Both Walgreens and Boots are performing well by delivering compelling value to consumers, playing a critical role as community health destinations, and successfully navigating a challenging environment. We will continue to take bold actions to create sustainable long-term shareholder value," CEO of the company, Rosalind Brewer said in a press release. The stock was up by around 1% in pre-market trading following the latest results.
The stock is down by 11.83% year-to-date at $32.96 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -7.29% 3 months: -14.02% Year-to-date: -11.83% 1 year: -31.12% Walgreens Boots Alliance price targets Barclays: $43 Evercore ISI Group: $35 Loop Capital: $45 Morgan Stanley: $37 Truist Securities: $42 JP Morgan: $40 Credit Suisse: $41 Mizuho: $41 Cowen & Co.: $54 Deutsche Bank: $50 Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. is the 605 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $28.41 billion. You can trade Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) announced Q4 and full-year financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain posted solid results for the quarter – beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. The company reported revenue of $164.048 billion (up by 7.3% year-over-year) vs. $159.759 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.71 per share for the quarter vs. $1.518 EPS estimate. Full-year revenues reached $611.3 billion (up by 6.7% vs. a year prior) and EPS at $6.29 per share. CEO commentary ''We’re excited about our momentum.
The team delivered a strong quarter to finish the year, and as our results in the last two quarters show, they acted quickly and aggressively to address the inventory and cost challenges we faced last year. We built momentum in the third quarter and that continues. We are well-positioned to start this fiscal year,'' Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart said in a press release following the latest results.
Stock reaction The results did not have a big impact on the share price Tuesday. The stock was up by 0.61% at $147.21 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +3.29% 3 months: -2.53% Year-to-date: +3.91% 1 year: +6.77% Walmart stock price targets Cowen & Co.: $180 Telsey Advisory Group: $165 Morgan Stanley: $161 Gordon Haskett: $155 Barclays: $159 Oppenheimer: $160 Tigress Financial: $176 UBS: $168 Credit Suisse: $170 Bernstein: $159 Walmart is the 18 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $397.31 billion.
You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Walmart, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The overall risk appetite in the market has increased this week following the news that the banking sector’s issues appear to have been resolved. As a result, the Japanese Yen’s status as a safe haven currency may have been hurt in this risk-on market environment. Paired with the renewed recovery in strength in the DXY, this has led to the USDJPY bouncing off the key support and round number price level of 130 to trade steadily higher.
This move higher was sustained as the price broke through the descending trendline, with the USDJPY rising toward the 133-round number resistance level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and 100-period moving average (MA). While the USDJPY could retrace briefly at this resistance area, look for the USDJPY to break beyond the 133 resistance level and 100 MA to signal a continuation of the upward move, with the next resistance level of 135 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level a possible target level. However, watch out for the developing news from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) following recent comments that the BoJ could tweak the current Yield Curve Control (YCC) if the economic and price conditions justify phasing out stimulus.
Widening of the target level or removal of the YCC could lead to a significant strengthening of the Japanese Yen.