Notícias de mercado & insights
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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) announced first quarter results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. World’s largest ridesharing company beat analyst expectations for the quarter, sending the stock price higher. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) The results Uber reported revenue of $8.823 billion (up by 29% vs Q1 2022) vs. $8.703 billion expected.
The company reported loss per share of -$0.08 per share vs. estimate of -$0.087 loss per share. CEO commentary "We significantly accelerated Q1 trip growth to 24% from 19% last quarter, with Mobility trip growth of 32%, as a result of improved earner and consumer engagement,” Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber said in a letter to shareholders. "Looking ahead, we are focused on extending our product, scale and platform advantages to sustain market-leading top and bottom-line growth beyond 2023," Khosrowshahi added. The stock was up +11.55% on Tuesday at $36.53 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +16.34% 3 months: +18.07% Year-to-date: +47.67% 1 year: +23.92% Uber price targets Wedbush: $44 Needham: $54 RBC Capital: $46 Deutsche Bank: $44 JMP Securities: $55 Wolfe Research: $45 UBS: $48 JP Morgan: $52 Wells Fargo: $53 Uber is the 196 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $73.54 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) announced the latest financial results for the first three months of 2023 before the market open in the US on Monday. The US Beverage company posted solid results for the quarter, beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview Founded: January 29, 1892 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 79,000 (2021) Industry: Beverage Key people: James Quincey (chairman and CEO), Brian Smith (president and COO) Owners: Berkshire Hathaway (9.23%), The Vanguard Group (7.90%), BlackRock (6.45%) The results The company reported revenue of $10.959 billion vs. $10.797 billion expected.
Revenues were up by 5% year-over-year. EPS at $0.68 per share (up by 6% from the same period last year) vs. $0.646 per share estimate. CEO commentary ''We are encouraged by our first quarter 2023 results,'' James Quincey, CEO of company said in a press release. ''Our system alignment is stronger than ever, and our networked organization is allowing us to adapt as needed.
We continue to invest for the long term, strengthening our capabilities to drive sustainable value for our stakeholders. We have the right portfolio, the right strategy and the right execution to deliver in the marketplace. We are confident in our ability to deliver on our 2023 objectives,'' Quincey concluded.
The latest results did not have a massive impact on the share price on Monday. The stock was up by 0.41% at $64.25 per share. Stock performance 1 month: +4.74% 3 months: +6.69% Year-to-date: +1.02% 1 year: -2.55% The Coca-Cola Company price targets Barclays: $72 Deutsche Bank: $60 Citigroup: $68 UBS: $72 Morgan Stanley: $70 Wells Fargo: $70 Wedbush: $63 Credit Suisse: $64 HSBC: $76 The Coca-Cola Company is the 30 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $277.94 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Coca-Cola Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
World’s largest automaker, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), reported Q1 financial results after market close in the US on Wednesday. Elon Musk’s company posted mixed results for the quarter. Let’s take a closer look at how it performed.
Company overview Founded: July 1, 2003 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of branches: 764 retail stores/galleries and service centers (2022) Number of employees: 127,855 (2022) Industry: Automotive, renewable energy, artificial intelligence Key people: Elon Musk (CEO), Robyn Denholm (chair) The results Tesla reported revenue that missed analyst estimate at $23.329 billion vs. $23.596 billion expected. Revenues were up by 24% compared to Q1 2022. Earnings per share reported at $0.85 per share (down by -21% year-over-year) vs. $0.846 per share estimate.
The automaker produced 440,808 and delivered 422,875 cars in Q1, up by 44% and 36% year-over-year, respectively. Company commentary ''In the current macroeconomic environment, we see this year as a unique opportunity for Tesla. As many carmakers are working through challenges with the unit economics of their EV programs, we aim to leverage our position as a cost leader.
We are focused on rapidly growing production, investments in autonomy and vehicle software, and remaining on track with our growth investment,'' Tesla said in a letter to shareholders. The company also commented on its pricing strategy: ''Our near-term pricing strategy considers a long-term view on per vehicle profitability given the potential lifetime value of a Tesla vehicle through autonomy, supercharging, connectivity and service. We expect that our product pricing will continue to evolve, upwards or downwards, depending on a number of factors.'' ''Although we implemented price reductions on many vehicle models across regions in the first quarter, our operating margins reduced at a manageable rate.
We expect ongoing cost reduction of our vehicles, including improved production efficiency at our newest factories and lower logistics costs, and remain focused on operating leverage as we scale. ''We are rapidly growing energy storage production capacity at our Megafactory in Lathrop and we recently announced a new Megafactory in Shanghai. We are also continuing to execute on our product roadmap, including Cybertruck, our next generation vehicle platform, autonomy and other AI enabled products.'' ''Our balance sheet and net income enable us to continue to make these capital expenditures in line with our future growth. In this environment, we believe it makes sense to push forward to ensure we lay a proper foundation for the best possible future,'' the statement concluded.
The stock was down by -2.02% on Wednesday at $180.48 a share before the results were announced. Share price dropped by around -3% in the after-hours as investors digested the earnings report. Stock performance 1 month: -5.38% 3 months: +40.44% Year-to-date: +46.83% 1 year: -44.48% Tesla price targets RBC Capital: $217 Barclays: $230 Wedbush: $225 TD Cowen: $170 Deutsche Bank: $250 Goldman Sachs: $225 Citigroup: $192 Tesla is the 8 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $576.43 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) announced Q1 financial results before the market open in the US today. The company posted solid results beating revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview Founded: June 24, 1902 Headquarters: Target Plaza Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 440,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Brian Cornell (Chairman & CEO) The results Revenue reported at $25.322 billion vs. $25.262 billion expected.
EPS reported at $2.05 per share (down by 4.8% year-over-year) vs. $1.766 per share estimate. CEO commentary "We came into the year clear-eyed about the challenges consumers are facing, and we were determined to build on the trust we've established with our guests. It's required agility and the ability to flex across our multi-category portfolio as we lean into value and the product categories our guests need most right now.
Thanks to the team's dedication, we saw an increase in guest traffic in Q1, with total sales increasing and profitability ahead of expectations," CEO of Target, Brian Cornell said in a statement. "As we look ahead, we now expect shrink will reduce this year's profitability by more than $500 million compared with last year. While there are many potential sources of inventory shrink, theft and organized retail crime are increasingly important drivers of the issue. We are making significant investments in strategies to prevent this from happening in our stores and protect our guests and our team.
We're also focused on managing the financial impact on our business so we can continue to keep our stores open, knowing they create local jobs and offer convenient access to essentials." "For the full year, we are maintaining our full-year financial guidance, based on the expected benefit from efficiency and cost-savings efforts and our team's continued focus on agility, flexibility and retail fundamentals in the face of continued challenges including inventory shrink. At the same time, we will continue making long-term investments in our stores, supply chain and our team, positioning Target for profitable growth and market-share gains in the years ahead," Cornell concluded. The stock was up by around 2% on Wednesday at $160.17 per share.
Stock performance 1 month: -0.76% 3 months: -8.37% Year-to-date: +8.21% 1 year: -0.20% Target price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $185 Raymond James: $190 JP Morgan: $175 Morgan Stanley: $170 Credit Suisse: $170 Baird: $195 Cowen & Co.: $200 Piper Sandler: $220 Barclays: $163 Oppenheimer: $190 Wells Fargo: $142 Target is the 193 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $74.95 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Target Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
American electric vehicle Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) reported the latest financial results for Q1 after the market close in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: June 2009 Headquarters: Irvine, California, United States Number of employees: 14,122 (December 2022) Industry: automotive, energy storage Key people: R. J.
Scaringe (CEO) The results The company reported revenue that fell slightly short of analyst estimates at $661 million (up from $95 million from Q1 2022) vs. $664.396 million expected. Loss per share reported at -$1.25 per share, which was less than -$1.622 loss per share expected. Rivian reiterated that it is on track to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023, which would represent a 100% increase from last year.
Company commentary "In the first quarter of 2023, we produced 9,395 and delivered 7,946 vehicles. This progress was despite our commercial van production line being down for a significant portion of the quarter as we introduced our Enduro motor and LFP technology into the commercial van production process," company said in a letter to shareholders. "We expect to continue to see a variance between production and delivery volumes as we ramp our production facility." "Operating and financial results during the first quarter of 2023 were in-line with our expectations and as a result, we are reaffirming our previously disclosed 2023 guidance of 50,000 total units of production, $(4,300) million in Adjusted EBITDA, and $2,000 million in capital expenditures." "We want to thank our employees, customers, suppliers, partners, communities, and shareholders for their continued support of our vision." The latest results and comments from the company had a positive impact on the share price. The stock was up by around +4% on Wednesday at $14.44 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +1.94% 3 months: -27.96% Year-to-date: -21.51% 1 year: -29.78% Rivian price targets Evercore ISI: $25 Cantor Fitzgerald: $27 Canaccord Genuity: $40 JP Morgan: $23 A. Davidson: $16 Rivian is the 1181 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $13.53 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Rivian Automotive Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
The Reserve Bank of Australia rate meeting today was supposed to be a done deal of another hold in rates, with futures markets pricing in an over 90% chance of that being the outcome. The RBA however, showing their determination to get an inflation rate still well outside their target band instead delivered a 25bp hike after last months pause, surprising the market and seeing a dramatic reaction in the Aussie dollar (pump) and equity markets. (dump) AUDUSD and ASX200 reaction: Adding to this was what was see as a hawkish statement accompanying the decision, helping to cement the original moves which look now to have some legs, likely seeing the AUDUSD break the 0.67 level this session. *RBA RAISES CASH RATE TARGET 25 BASIS POINTS TO 3.85% *RBA: SOME FURTHER TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY MAY BE REQUIRED *RBA SAYS RATE RISE TO HELP ANCHOR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS