Notícias de mercado & insights
Mantenha-se à frente dos mercados com insights de especialistas, notícias e análise técnica para orientar suas decisões de negociação.
O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
Global markets head into the new week with one eye on ongoing geopolitical pressures and one eye on US data and comments from Federal Reserve members as we come into the last week before the blackout period ahead of the November 2 FOMC meeting. Along with the geopolitical backdrop there is some key scheduled data this week the traders will be watching with keen interest. These are the markets I’ll be watching especially closely this week.
AUDUSD The Aussie had a tough week as risk sentiment soured somewhat in global markets, and an announcement of Chinese stimulus disappointing the market in its scope. AUDUSD did find good support at the November ’22 lows of 0.6280, a level which has now become key for AUDUSD bulls, a break here has a chart with fresh air until the major 0.62 support level. Aussie watchers this week have a talk by new RBA Governor Bullock and Australian Employment data to look forward to, along with some important data from the US including retail sales and unemployment claims.
Market sentiment will also play a part in the performance of the risk sensitive AUD. Gold Gold benefitted from its safe haven status, strongly rallying all of last week with XAUUSD finishing up around 5% for the week. There was a monster push higher on Friday, with a similar move in the Oil market as traders rushed to exit shorts before the weekend in both markets.
XAUUSD pushed up to its 50% Fib resistance level at 1940 on Friday, today in the APAC session we have seen a modest pullback as presumably some safe haven traders are unwinding longs. Key levels to watch this week will be the 1940 level to the upside, a break and hold here would point to a technical leg higher, to the downside, the 1905 Fib, mid-September lows and upper trend channel support level all pretty much line up and will be an important area of support if XAUUSD is to hold last week’s gains. Oil WTI Crude oil had a choppy and volatile week, pushed and pulled around by conflict in the Middle East and oil storage data.
A gap open higher on Monday retraced during the week until, like Gold, a monster move higher on Friday with no-one wanting to be short going into the weekend and the unknowns of the continued conflict. After recently breaking the medium term trendline that had been in play since July. USOUSD has found this level now become resistance at around the 88.10 USD a barrel level and is shaping to be a key level to the upside.
To the downside the gap fill support level at 83.20 will the support level to watch. Beyond the charts geopolitical events will also play a significant role in Oil price movements this week.
Bitcoin traders had some excitement in the session overnight, with some false news sending price rising over 7% in a few minutes. A tweet from a well-known crypto news website, Cointelegraph, stated that the SEC had approved a Bitcoin Spot ETF from BlackRock. Markets temporarily rallied off the back of this news, until it was quickly squashed by BlackRock who confirmed it was false and their Spot ETF was still under review from the SEC.
Price quickly cleared all the gains, however, BTC is still trading up over 4% for the daily session. Technically, BTC is still trending in the right direction, with price reclaiming a diagonal trendline that was broken a few days ago. Currently sitting at the midpoint of a large range that has been holding firm since March.
If the momentum continues, we could see price moving up towards the next major resistance level around 30k USD. On the bearish side, there appears to be a large Head & Shoulders pattern forming. If we see the price continue to rise and then start falling away before taking out the July highs, there could be a good case for the Head & Shoulders pattern to play out.
Whatever way we see the price move in the following weeks, we could be in for some volatility as the markets appear to be reacting heavily to news events. With a number of US Fed officials speaking this week, we could see some further volatility as the markets try and predict what is in store for the US economy.
The USD has remained bid today heading into today’s pivotal US CPI where both the headline M/M and Y/Y figures are expected to show an increase over Julys readings. This is the last major inflation figure before next weeks FOMC meeting where the Fed is widely expected to hold rates (Fed Funds futures pricing in only a 7% chance of a 25bp hike). A beat on CPI today is unlikely to sway the rate hike odds much but it will cast doubt on any narrative that the Feds work on inflation is done.
A CPI coming inline with expectation or higher will likely see a reasonably hawkish FOMC statement and presser, where despite unchanged rates, the Fed may give a dot plot projection indicating one more hike this year. DXY has rallied in today’s session after yesterday’s whipsawing price action, with the upward trendline holding as support. US 10-year yields have also rallied to move towards the August highs as traders brace for a higher CPI and more hawkish Fed as a result, higher yields also a tailwind for the USD.
Headwinds for the DXY will be the 105+ resistance zone which has capped further gains in DXY for the last 12 months, also 10-year yields in the recent past finding a lot of resistance when over the 4% level.
Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) released Q3 results before the market open in the US on Thursday. Let’s take a look at how the Chinese company performed. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Beijing, China Number of employees: 19,396 (2022) Industry: Automotive Key people: Li Xiang (Chairman and CEO), Yanan Shen (President), Tie Li (CFO) The results World’s 12th largest automaker reported revenue of $4.749 billion for Q3 (up by 271.2% year-over-year), above analyst estimate of $4.581 billion.
EPS reported at $0.449 per share vs. $0.368 per share expected. The electric vehicle company delivered 105,108 cars in the previous quarter – up by 296.3% from the same period in 2022. Li Auto has delivered 284,647 vehicles so far this year.
CEO commentary "In response to the evolving market demand in the third quarter, we continued to strengthen synergies across production, supply, and sales, while enhancing our production capability. With these efforts, we achieved a number of breakthroughs across our delivery performance during the quarter, becoming China’s first emerging new energy automaker to reach the milestone of 500,000 cumulative deliveries. Each of our three Li L series models recorded over 10,000 monthly deliveries for three consecutive months since August, maintaining our position as the sales champion among SUVs and NEVs priced over RMB300,000 in China.
As we further expand our business scale, we will continue to maintain our profitability at a healthy level, while investing in research and development to propel the long-term growth of our business," Chairman and CEO of Li Auto, Li Xiang said in a press release to investors. The stock was down by around 2% on Thursday despite posting better-than-expected results. Shares of Li Auto are up by 118.68% in the past year at $38.28 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +10.41% 3 months: -11.16% Year-to-date: +86.62% 1 year: +118.67% Li Auto price targets B of A Securities: $60 Barclays: $48 Citigroup: $54.3 HSBC: $36 Jefferies: $20.66 Li Auto Inc. is the 453rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $38.17 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Li Auto Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Benzinga, Macrotrends
The recent surge in gold prices, following recent events in the Middle East and the declining US Dollar (DXY), raises the question: Is this the end of the bull run for Gold (XAU/USD)? Gold started rising earlier this month after rejecting the price level of 1815.00. Since then, it has steadily climbed back to its previous peak of 1984.00, a resistance point that was notably challenging to breach in July.
This recent surge in gold prices, due in part to recent events in the Middle East, is attracting more bullish activity in the gold market. Simultaneously, the declining value of the US Dollar (DXY) has contributed to the upward movement of gold prices. Where can we see gold go in the near future?
In the market, assets tend to move in one of three directions: up, down, or sideways, often referred to as consolidation. Given that gold has reached its previous peak, it may seek potential support, which appears to be around 1930-1931. Concurrently, the US Dollar is experiencing a decline in value.
If gold manages to surpass the resistance at 1984.00, the next hurdle could be at 2060.00. This level is evident on the daily timeframe, where the price has approached 2060 on multiple occasions, only to be rejected. What about the DXY and XAU/USD?
The relationship between DXY (Dollar Index) and gold (XAU/USD) is intricate. Sometimes, when the dollar index is declining, the price of gold tends to move sideways or increase. However, examining larger time frames like the 4-hourly or daily charts reveals an inverse pattern of rejection and price rise between these two markets.
It's important to note that gold's movements are not solely dependent on the USD; other significant factors, including news, social and geo-political events can also play a substantial role in influencing its price fluctuations. Why is gold so important? Apart from its physical shine and the enduring symbolic connection with wealth seen throughout human history, gold holds significance as a historically reliable store of value and a means of exchange.
Unlike many other commodities, gold does not diminish or get depleted, giving it a timeless sense of worth. It can act as a safeguard against the erosion of currency value caused by inflation, prompting numerous investors to view gold as an alternative asset and a method of preserving their wealth. How can I trade gold?
At GO Markets, we provide Metal CFDs for trading, offering not only gold but also silver and copper futures. Our goal is to deliver an exceptional trading experience to our clients. We take pride in offering one of the best online trading platforms for gold, silver, and copper futures, in addition to providing access to FX, Soft Commodities, Shares, and Indexes, enabling our clients to diversify their investments across various financial markets.
The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) reported its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2023 results ending September 30, 2023, after the market close in the US on Wednesday. Company overview Founded: October 16, 1923 Headquarters: Team Disney Building, Walt Disney Studios, Burbank, California, United States Number of employees: 220,000 (2022) Industry: media, entertainment Key people: Mark Parker (chairman), Bob A. Iger (CEO) The results World’s third largest entertainment company reported revenue of $21.241 billion for the quarter (up by 5% year-over-year), narrowly missing analyst estimate of $21.369 billion.
Revenue for the full year reached $88.898 billion, an increase of 7% from the previous year. Earnings per share reported at $0.82 per share, above analyst estimate of $0.71 per share. EPS for the full year reached $3.76 per share.
Disney+ added 7 million core subscribers during the previous quarter. CEO commentary "Our results this quarter reflect the significant progress we’ve made over the past year," Robert A. Iger, CEO of Disney commented on the latest results. "While we still have work to do, these efforts have allowed us to move beyond this period of fixing and begin building our businesses again.
We have a solid foundation of creative excellence and innovation built over the past century, which has only been reinforced by the important restructuring and cost efficiency work we’ve done this year, and we’re on track to achieve roughly $7.5 billion in cost reductions. Combined with our portfolio of valuable businesses, brands and assets – and the way we manage them together – Disney has a strong hand that differentiates us from others in our industry." "As we look forward, there are four key building opportunities that will be central to our success: achieving significant and sustained profitability in our streaming business, building ESPN into the preeminent digital sports platform, improving the output and economics of our film studios, and turbocharging growth in our parks and experiences business. We have already made considerable advancements in these four areas and will continue to move forward with a sense of purpose and urgency, and I’m bullish about the opportunities we have before us to create lasting growth and increase shareholder value," Iger concluded.
The latest results had a positive impact on the stock in the after-hours trading. Shares were up by around 3%.The stock is down by 2.59% in the past year at $84.50 per share. 1 month: -0.41% 3 months: -3.42% Year-to-date: -2.74% 1 year: -2.59% Walt Disney price targets JP Morgan: $120 Seaport Global: $93 Bernstein: $103 Rosenblatt: $103 B of A Securities: $110 Truist Securities: $105 Raymond James: $97 Wells Fargo: $110 Goldman Sachs: $136 Deutsche Bank: $135 Walt Disney is the 68th largest company in the world with a market cap of $154.61 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Walt Disney Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Benzinga