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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
USD bounced back to start the first full week of December after a horror run in November where the Dollar Index (DXY) fell around 3%. DXY breaking through the 200 Day SMA resistance and printing a high of 103.850. Sour risk sentiment and higher treasury yields (particularly in the short end) helping DXY erase the Powell inspired drop on Friday.
With the Fed having entered their blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting (meaning no Fed member jawboning) data this week will take on extra importance with USD traders particularly watching Services PMI data today and the NFP jobs report on Friday. AUD and NZD were the G10 underperformers, a strong USD and a broad risk-off backdrop the main drivers rather than anything specific to the currencies. AUDUSD was looking to test the 0.67 resistance early in the session before reversing course to test the support at 0.66 before finding some buyers.
Aussie traders have the December RBA meeting to navigate, with the Central Bank widely expected (95% chance according to futures) to keep rates unchanged. What AUD trader will be watching is for any change of language in the accompanying statement with regards to futures hikes, will the RBA leave the door ajar, wide open or shut it completely? Expect some volatility in the AUD as traders race to work that part out at announcement time.
Wednesdays FOMC meeting was always going to be about whether we’d see a hawkish pushback against market expectations of a dovish Fed in 2024, or a validation of those expectations, from the market reaction to the meeting, traders decided the latter is the conclusion. Rates were kept on hold at 5.35%-5.5% as expected but the updated dot plot and the language of the accompanying statement and Powell presser confirmed what most market participants were predicting, US rates have peaked, and multiple rate cuts are coming next year. This saw the USD dump along with yields with the US Dollar Index (DXY) blowing through its 200-day SMA (where it had been finding support) closing at session lows of 102.77.
The next minor support to the downside being the November swing low of 102.46. The Yen was a particular beneficiary of the dump in US yields which saw the rate differential between the US and JP 10 Year tighten significantly. USDJPY dropping to a 142 handle as it played catch up to the yields and now testing a key support level around its 200-day SMA and December lows.
Gold surged over 30 USD an ounce as a falling Dollar and yields emboldened the bulls. XAUUSD retaking the psychological 2000 USD an ounce level after finding strong support at the October Lows – December high 50% Fib level. A retest of the major resistance at 2070 could be on the cards, and is a key level to watch for gold traders.
Central bank action continues today with both the SNB and BoE scheduled to release their latest rate decisions.
American wholesale chain, Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), announced financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 after the closing bell in the US on Thursday. Company overview Founded: September 15, 1983 Headquarters: Issaquah, Washington, United States Number of employees: 316,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Hamilton E. James (Chairman), W.
Craig Jelinek (President and CEO) The results Costco reported total revenue of $57.799 billion for the quarter, which narrowly beat Wall Street analyst estimate of $57.785 billion. Revenue was up by 6% from the same period a year prior. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $3.58 per share (up by 16.61% year-over-year), above $3.411 per share expected.
The company announced a cash dividend of $15 per share to all shareholders of the stock as of close of business on 28/12/2023. Stock reaction Shares of Costco were down by 1.75% on Thursday at $630.78 a share. The stock was down by around 1% in the after-hours as Wall Street digested the latest results from the company.
Stock performance 1 month: +9.48% 3 months: +12.16% Year-to-date: +38.76% 1 year: +36.54% Costco stock price targets Oppenheimer: $675 Evercore ISI: $650 Stifel: $615 Truist Financial: $619 Telsey Advisory Group: $625 JP Morgan: $605 Wells Fargo: $525 Loop Capital: $630 Deutsche Bank: $652 Morgan Stanley: $585 Bank of America: $610 Costco Wholesale Corporation is the 29th largest company in the world with a market cap of $281.37 billion. You can trade Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Costco Wholesale Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
US technology giant and one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world, Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO), announced fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 results after the market close in the US on Thursday. Company overview Founded: 1961 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 20,000 (2023) Industry: Semiconductor, computer software Key people: Henry Samueli (Chairman), Hock Tan (President and CEO) The results Broadcom reported revenue of $9.295 billion (up by 4% year-over-year) vs. $9.277 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst estimates for the quarter at $11.06 per share vs. $10.96 per share expected.
Net revenue reached $35.819 bill for the full fiscal 2023, up by 8% from the year prior. EPS reached $32.94 per share, an increase of 24.31% year-over-year. CEO commentary "Broadcom's fiscal year 2023 revenue grew 8% year-over-year to a record $35.8 billion, driven by investments in accelerators and network connectivity for AI by hyperscalers," President and CEO of Broadcom, Hock Tan, highlighted the reasons for the successful year for the company. "The acquisition of VMware is transformational.
In fiscal year 2024 we expect semiconductor to sustain its mid to high single digit revenue growth rate, with the contribution of VMware driving consolidated revenue to $50 billion, and adjusted EBITDA to $30 billion," Tan concluded. Stock reaction Shares of Broadcom ended the day up by 2.06% on Thursday at $922.26 a share before the latest results were announced. The stock dipped by around 1% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 1 month: +0.32% 3 months: +6.69% Year-to-date: +63.53% 1 year: +72.16% Broadcom stock price targets Rosenblatt Securities: $1000 Oppenheimer: $1100 Susquehanna: $1100 KeyCorp: $1200 Evercore ISI: $1050 Truist Financial: $995 Benchmark: $950 TD Cowen: $900 Wells Fargo: $900 Mizuho: $960 Deutsche Bank: $950 Broadcom Inc. is the 20th largest company in the world with a market cap of $378.07 billion. You can trade Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Broadcom Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The largest US retailer of aftermarket automotive parts, AutoZone (NYSE: AZO), released its latest earnings report for its fiscal first quarter that ended on November 18, 2023, before the US market opened on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: July 4, 1979 Headquarters: Memphis, Tennessee, United States Number of employees: 119,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: William C. Rhodes III (Chairman, President, & CEO), Jamere Jackson (CFO) The results AutoZone reported revenue of $4.19 billion for the quarter, slightly beating $4.188 billion estimate.
Earnings per share reached $32.55 per share vs. $31.573 per share expected. The company opened 25 new stores during the quarter in United States, Mexico and Brazil. One store was closed in the United States.
AutoZone has 7,165 stores as of November 18, 2023. CEO commentary "I want to thank all AutoZoners across the company for their efforts during our first fiscal quarter. The commitment to superior service resulted in our ability to deliver strong financial results.
Our domestic sales results were solid despite tough comparisons from a year ago, while our international business continues to deliver exceptionally strong sales growth. We remain committed to driving sales and earnings growth throughout fiscal 2024, while returning cash to our shareholders," William C. Rhodes, CEO of the company said in a letter to investors.
Stock reaction Shares of AutoZone were little changed at the end of Tuesday’s session, ending the day up by 0.26% at $2,671.12 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +0.78% 3 months: +4.50% Year-to-date: +8.31% 1 year: +8.72% AutoZone stock price targets Wedbush: $2750 Truist Financial: $2933 TD Cowen: $2975 Oppenheimer: $2600 Argus: $2920 DA Davidson: $2500 Evercore ISI: $2750 Morgan Stanley: $2750 Barclays: $2742 JP Morgan: $2975 AutoZone Inc. is the 362nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $47.10 billion. You can trade AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: AutoZone Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
US software giant, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE), reported Q4 and fiscal year 2023 financial results after the market close in the US on Wednesday. Company overview Founded: December 1982 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 26,000 (2022) Industry: Software Key people: Shantanu Narayen (Chairman & CEO) The results Revenue reported $5.048 billion for Q4 and reached $5 billion mark for the first time (up by 12% year-over-year) vs. $5.014 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $4.27 per share vs. $4.134 per share expected.
Fiscal year 2023 revenue reached a new record of $19.41 billion – a new record and an increase of 10% year-over-year. EPS reported at $16.07 per share, up by 17% from the year prior. Adobe expects revenue to reach between $5.10 to $5.15 billion in first quarter of fiscal year 2024, which would fall below analyst estimate of $5.16 billion.
CEO commentary ''Adobe drove record revenue of $19.41 billion in FY23 and 17 percent year-over-year EPS growth, with strong momentum across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud. Adobe’s strategy, category leadership, ground-breaking innovation, exceptional talent and global customer base position us well for 2024 and beyond,'' Shantanu Narayen, CEO of Adobe said in a letter to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 1.48% at the end of Tuesday, trading at $624.26 a share.
Share price fell by around 6% in the after-hours trading after the release of the latest results as future guidance fell short of estimates. Stock performance 1 month: +6.44% 3 months: +14.47% Year-to-date: +88.29% 1 year: +86.41% Adobe stock price targets Citigroup: $675 BMO Capital Markets: $690 KGI Securities: $730 Piper Sandler: $650 DA Davidson: $640 Oppenheimer: $660 HSBC: $519 Barclays: $640 Bank of America: $660 Adobe Inc. is the 28th largest company in the world with a market cap of $288.50 billion. You can trade Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Adobe Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap