Notícias de mercado & insights
Mantenha-se à frente dos mercados com insights de especialistas, notícias e análise técnica para orientar suas decisões de negociação.
O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) announced fourth quarter of 2023 and full year financial results before the market opened in the US on Friday, ending a busy week of earnings. The US banking and payment card services company achieved revenue of $15.799 billion vs. $16.003 billion. Revenue grew by 11% vs. the year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $2.62 vs. $2.639 pe share estimate. EPS was up by 27% year-over-year. American Express set a new full year revenue record at $60.5 billion – up by 14% vs. 2022.
Full year EPS reached $11.21 per share – an 14% year-over-year. The company also announced plans to increase its quarterly dividend to $0.70 per common share, up from $0.60 per share. Company overview Founded: 1850 Headquarters: 200 Vesey Street Manhattan, New York City, NY 10285, United States Number of employees: 77,300 (2022) Industry: Banking, Payment card services Key people: Stephen J.
Squeri (Chairman & CEO), Jeffrey C. Campbell (Executive VP & CFO) CEO commentary ''We delivered record revenues and profits in 2023, building on the momentum we've achieved since we announced our growth plan in January 2022. We continued to drive strong customer engagement, and demand for our premium products remained robust.
We added 12.2 million new proprietary cards in the year, bringing the total number of cards-in-force issued on our global network to over 140 million,'' Stephen J. Squeri, CEO of American Express commented on the latest results. Squeri also looked at the year ahead, setting expectations for investors: ''Based on the momentum in our business, we are providing full-year 2024 guidance for revenue growth of 9 percent to 11 percent and EPS of $12.65 to $13.15.
Looking ahead, we continue to run the business with a focus on our aspiration of revenue growth of 10 percent plus and mid-teens EPS growth.'' Stock reaction The share price rose by over 7% on Friday, trading at $201.43 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +8.90% 1 month: +6.47% 3 months: +41.16% Year-to-date: +6.47% 1 year: +15.76% American Express stock price targets BMO Capital Markets: $157 Deutsche Bank: $235 Robert W. Baird: $190 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: 205 Stephens: $193 The Goldman Sachs Group: $205 Barclays: $184 TD Cowen: $158 Citigroup: $154 Piper Sandler Companies: $151 Morgan Stanley: $175 Royal Bank of Canada: $185 HSBC: $181 Oppenheimer: $175 Bank of America: $202 American Express Company is the 86th largest company in the world with a market cap of $145.67 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: American Express Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Chinese e-commerce giant, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA), released Q4 2023 earnings results before the US market open on Wednesday. The company achieved revenue of $36.67 billion, which was pretty much in line with analyst estimates. Revenue grew by 5% year-over-year.
Earnings per share was reported at $2.672 (down by 2% year-over-year), just shy of $2.672 per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1999 Headquarters: No. 969 West Wen Yi Road, Yuhang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China and George Town, Cayman Islands Number of employees: 235,216 (July 2023) Industry: E-commerce Key people: Joseph Tsai (co-founder & chairman), Eddie Wu (co-founder & CEO), J. Michael Evans (president) CEO and CFO commentary ''We delivered a solid quarter as we are executing our focused strategies across the organization.
Our top priority is to reignite the growth of our core businesses, e-commerce and cloud computing. We will step up investment to improve users’ core experiences to drive growth in Taobao and Tmall Group and strengthen market leadership in the coming year. We will also focus our resources on developing public cloud products and sustaining the strong growth momentum in international commerce business,'' Eddie Wu, CEO of Alibaba said in a statement to investors.
Company CFO, Toby Xu also commented on the latest results: ''Alibaba Group delivered a healthy quarter with revenue growth of 5% year-over-year. We increased our investment in strategic priorities and improved shareholder return by leveraging our strong balance sheet and cash flow. Our board of directors approved an increase of US$25 billion to our share repurchase program, demonstrating our confidence in the outlook of our business and cash flow.
Our consistent share repurchase has also reduced outstanding share count while achieving EPS and cash flow per share accretion.'' Stock reaction The stock was trading at its highest level since 24/11/23 at market close on Tuesday. Shares fell at the open on Wednesady after Q4 results were announced and were down by around 5.94% at $73.59 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +2.04% 1 month: +3.12% 3 months: -13.16% Year-to-date: -4.99% 1 year: -29.94% Alibaba stock price targets Robert W.
Baird: $90 Mizuho: $100 Barclays: $109 Benchmark: $128 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $110 Morgan Stanley: $90 Susquehanna: $150 Truist Financial: $120 UBS Group: $127 Bank of America: $136 HSBC: $135 Citigroup: $147 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is the 62nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $184.07 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''.
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
TSLA comes into Wednesdays Q4 earnings report having taken a beating so far is 2024, with the stock price down almost 16% in the first 4 weeks of the new year. Q4 was a quarter that saw the company’s deliveries trend higher, driven by stronger sales of its entry-level vehicles following price cuts, an upside surprise may be on the cards lending relief to stockholders after a big miss in Q3 earnings. Earnings reports for Tesla have been volatile to say the least as mixed results are apparent in the past four quarterly earnings reports, where we have seen two beats and two misses.
For this earnings report, the company is expected to report the same earnings per share (EPS) as Q3, where they missed by 17%, seeing TSLA stock drop around $20 as a result. Looking at the chart TSLA has been trading in a descending channel since August 2023 with a support zone possible between the October ’23 lows of 194.62 and the bottom of the channel around 180.71 if TSLA has another miss. To the upside on a beat the support/resistance level at 232.20 would be the level to watch.
Downside could also be limited by the extreme oversold reading we already see on the daily RSI indicator. Another positive sign for the bulls is skew in the options market currently, with equidistant options from the stock price to the downside (puts) and upside (calls) showing a higher price for calls, while this doesn’t mean the stock price is going higher, it does indicate that options traders are in the belief that a big move to the upside is slightly more likely. TSLA is due to release Q4 earnings after the US market close on Wednesday 24 th of January where they are expected to report earnings-per-share (EPS) of $0.73 on $25.76 billion in revenue.
World’s second largest semiconductor company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM), reported the latest results for Q4 of 2023 before the opening bell in Wall Street on Thursday. TSMC achieved revenue of $19.785 billion in Q4 2023 vs. $19.675 billion expected.
Revenue rose by 14.4% from Q3. Earnings per share was reported at $1.456 per share, which exceeded estimate of $1.385 per share. Company overview Founded: 1987 Headquarters: Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan Number of employees: 73,090 (2022) Industry: Semiconductor Key people: Mark Liu (Chairman), C.C.
Wei (CEO and vice-chairman), Wendell Huang (VP and CFO) CEO commentary "Our fourth quarter business was supported by the continued strong ramp of our industry-leading 3-nanometer technology. Moving into first quarter 2024, we expect our business to be impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued HPC-related demand," Wendell Huang, CFO of the company said in statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock rose by over 7% during Thursday’s session after the company posted the latest results, trading at $110.32 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: +9.03% 1 month: +7.62% 3 months: +18.78% Year-to-date: +6.12% 1 year: +24.84% Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock price targets TD Cowen: $95 Barclays: $105 Needham & Company LLC: $115 Susquehanna: $130 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is the 11th largest company in the world with a market cap of $570.66 billion. You can trade Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
Ltd., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Prologis Inc. (NYSE: PLD) announced reported its latest financial results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. The largest real estate company in the US reported revenue of $1.756 billion for Q4 of 2023. Revenue missed analyst estimate of $1.85 billion.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $0.68 per share, above $0.588 per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 2,466 (2022) Industry: Real estate Key people: Hamid Moghadam (Chairman and CEO), Dan Letter (President), Gary Anderson (COO), Tim Arndt (CFO) CEO commentary "We closed 2023 adding another year of exceptional performance. I couldn't be more proud of our team," CEO of the company, Hamid Moghadam said in a press release to investors.
Moghadam also highlighted challenges for the company for the year ahead: "While uncertainties remain in the economic and geopolitical environment, we are positive about the outlook for 2024. We remain focused on executing the strategy outlined at our recent Investor Forum to drive significant value from our global scale and continue to be a best-in-class partner to our customers." Stock reaction The stock was down by over 2% on Wednesday, trading at $126.86 a share – the lowest level since 12/12/2023. Stock performance 5 day: -5.01% 1 month: -2.77% 3 months: +21.54% Year-to-date: -4.83% 1 year: +3.43% Prologis stock price targets Mizuho: $130 JP Morgan: $148 Scotiabank: $143 Truist Financial: $120 Stifel Nicolaus: $130 Raymond James: $130 Barclays: $153 Evercore ISI: $125 BNP Paribas: $141 Morgan Stanley: $128 UBS Group: $144 Goldmans Sachs: $170 BMO Capital Markets: $145 Prologis Inc. is the 118th largest company in the world with a market cap of $117.21 billion.
You can trade Prologis Inc. (NYSE: PLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Prologis Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
World’s largest consumer goods company, Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG), announced second quarter of fiscal year 2024 results on Tuesday. The company achieved revenue of $21.441 billion for the quarter (up by 3% year-over-year), slightly short of Wall Street estimate of $21.476 billion. Earnings per share reached $1.84 per share (up by 16% year-over-year), which was above analyst estimate of $1.697 per share.
Company overview Founded: October 31, 1837 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 27,560 (2023) Industry: Consumer goods Key people: David S. Taylor (Executive Chairman), Jon R. Moeller (President and CEO) CEO commentary ''We delivered strong results in the second quarter, enabling us to raise our core EPS growth guidance and maintain our top-line outlook for the fiscal year,'' CEO of the company, Jon Moeller, said in a press release to investors. ''We remain committed to our integrated strategy of a focused product portfolio of daily use categories where performance drives brand choice, superiority — across product performance, packaging, brand communication, retail execution and consumer and customer value — productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization.
The P&G team’s execution of this strategy has enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum. We have confidence this remains the right strategy to deliver balanced growth and value creation,'' Moeller added. Stock reaction The latest results had a positive impact on the stock in Tuesday’s session.
Shares were up by 4.39% at $154.35 a share – the highest since 14/9/2023. Stock performance 5 day: +2.99% 1 month: +5.71% 3 months: +2.92% Year-to-date: +5.28% 1 year: +8.78% Procter & Gamble price targets JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $162 Barclays: $160 Jefferies Financial Group: $177 DZ Bank: $155 Wells Fargo & Company: $162 Stifel Nicolaus: $151 Sanford C. Bernstein: $153 HSBC: $179 Bank of America: $175 Morgan Stanley: $174 Deutsche Bank: $173 Royal Bank of Canada: $167 Truist Financial Procter & Gamble Company is the 22nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $363.71 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Procter & Gamble Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap