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O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) has had a good start to 2024 with the share price up by over 11% reaching new all-time highs. On Wednesday, it was time for the US construction company to release the latest financial results for Q1 2024, ending on 29/2/24. Lennar reported revenue of $7.313 billion for the quarter, which was below estimate of $7.39 billion.
Revenue was up by 13% from the same period the year before. Earnings per share topped expectations at $2.57 (up by 25% year-over-year) vs. $2.21 per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1954 Headquarters: Waterford District, unincorporated Miami-Dade County, Florida (Miami, Florida postal address) Number of employees: 12,012 (2022) Industry: Construction Key people: Stuart Miller (Executive Chairman, co-CEO), Jon Jaffe (co-CEO, President), Fred Rothman (COO) Stock reaction Shares were down by 0.28% at the end of Wednesday’s session at $165.50 a share.
The stock fell by around 1% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +2.77% 1 month: +7.56% 3 months: +14.01% Year-to-date: +11.04% 1 year: +65.19% Lennar stock price targets Wedbush: $130 Raymond James: $165 JMP Securities: $170 The Goldman Sachs Group: $158 Royal Bank of Canada: $137 Barclays: $165 Jefferies Financial Group: $117 Wells Fargo & Company: $130 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $135 Citigroup: $139 UBS Group: $159 Evercore ISI: $164 Bank of America: $120 Lennar Corporation is the 416 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $45.63 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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Let us open with this: “It’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I’d say it’s unlikely,” – US Chair Jay Powell This verbatim quote puts a lid on the movements seen in bond and interbank markets that might have overacted to recent data that has been above expectations and has led some to price hikes. The let us counter that quote with this quote: “I think my expectation is that we will, over the course of this year, see inflation move back down.
That’s my forecast. But I think my confidence in that is lower than it was because of the data that we’ve seen.” – US Chair Jay Powell This ‘lack of progress’ is testing the board, it's also clear that members are starting to get spooked by signs in the labour markets that employment is tight and starting to flex to the upside. This is why we use the term ‘lid’ – the lid can come off and judging by the trade in the US500 and USD over the 2 hours from when the statement was released through to the end of Powell’s press conference, the lid is ajar.
The May meeting was supposed to be the start of the Fed's march to lower rates. At least that was what the pricing at the beginning of the year was telling us. As we've seen with the data; persistent inflation, strong employment, flat growth have clearly complicated where the Fed is now going.
And the May meeting may be when the starter gun was lowered - signalling that the federal funds rate to remain at 5.25% to 5.5% for the foreseeable future. If we look at the futures market the expected 150 basis points of rate cuts price in January, forecasted to start at the May meeting, now sits at a mere 32 basis point cut for 2024. And it's falling further.
Risk on trading has been gorging on this idea since last October and in part explains why global indices have been so strong in the face of tough conditions. With the Fed in a fix about what to do next indices are now going to have to ‘prove’ (bottom-up fundamentals) that pricing is justified, something market is now testing. On the FX front, the May Fed meeting has been taken in a different light.
The lid has been taken as ‘firmly on’ and the USD has suffered for it. DXY shows that across the pairs the USD was turfed out as those traders positioned for US Fed hikes got squeezed. We need to be vigilant as to which pairs we looked at.
Considering the EUR, GBP, CAD and Scandinavian currencies are likely to see rate cuts from their respective central banks in the coming months the current fall in the USD may be short lived here. But currencies such as the AUD and NZD facing higher rates for longer may hold on to the gains they acquired. The conclusion, however, is that rates are on hold and will be higher for longer.
The pressure this will put into risk assets is likely to be seen in the coming months and therefore a real test for the bulls that have been driving markets since October last year.
Plenty has been made of the drive towards nickel and lithium as “future metals” as the world's “electrification” takes hold. This “electrification” has been nicknamed the “volt revolution” and when you get these kinds of technological leaps - what's appearing to be the “winner” now doesn't necessarily mean it will be the overall. That is where Nickel and Lithium need to be examined.
The demand for these two metals over the last 15 years has been staggering and for good reason the uptake of electronic vehicles (EVs), household batteries and the accelerated push to “net zero” have made these two metals – must haves. However as mentioned, will the demand hold up or will these metals experience the same market translation social media went through in the late 1990s and 2000s. Think about it what happened to market leaders Myspace and Yahoo?
Think about all those search engines that lost out to Google? Or the online marketplaces that have been cannibalised by Amazon. I raise this because although right now nickel and lithium are all the rage, there are signs they may lose out to cheaper and possibly faster technologies in the EV and battery space over the coming decades.
Nickel in particular looks to be the first one of these under pressure, and not surprising it’s from lithium itself. The light speed advancement in cheap and safe LFP batteries (lithium iron phosphate) is staggering. In fact, they are becoming so good at holding charge and efficiency that LFP batteries have now conquered 70% of the EV mass market in China further to this - they don't need nickel or cobalt like previous iterations.
Then there is the new manganese twist to the LFP batteries. “LMFP” uses manganese as a cathode which almost exponentially upscales the quality. These batteries are now approaching the energy density and range of standard high nickel batteries that are sold in all EVs across Europe in the US — but here is the kicker its two-thirds of the cost. So it would appear lithium is the winner with the LMFP battery technology - Again, I am not sure as battery technology using sulphur and potassium suggests we could see another leap forward in the range and charging time of these players and they are due to hit the market in the latter half of this decade, the catch here – they don’t use lithium in anywhere near the quantities originally forecast.
Let me dig a little further - the Department of Industry and Resources anticipates that lithium prices won't return to the peak levels seen in late 2022 until the end of 2029. Why? Throughout most of last year a surge in lithium production chased the high prices of 2022 leading to a substantial increase in global supply.
Couple that with weaker-than-expected demand for EVs in the US and Europe balanced the market and caused prices to drop significantly. (Source: Department of Industry and Resources) Supply and demand being what it is prices fell throughout 2023 resulting in reduced production, particularly among some higher-cost producers. Which brings us to the 20% increase in lithium price since the start of the year, and forecasts of further gains through to 2025 according to the same report from the Department of Industry, Resources, and Sciences. However, from 2026 onward, lithium-ion EV batteries will face the pressure from the technologies mentioned above.
The impact on lithium prices such as lithium spodumene according to the Department is prices to climb to US$1,360 per tonne by 2026 before declining to US$1,090 by 2029. The reason I want to use the department’s forecasting is it is historically conservative and directionally accurate. So, what does this all mean?
Larger lithium producers like Pilbara Minerals, Mineral Resources, and IGO are expected to remain profitable at current prices, but the outlook for marginal producers like Core Lithium and emerging players like Liontown is less certain, with questions about whether current prices are sufficient to support their projects. It also suggests that when it comes to future metals – nickel, lithium and the like, a short term view may be the better option as picking the eventual winner in the ‘volt revolution’ is far from certain.
Thin trading in FX markets continued in a holiday shortened week with G10 FX mostly flat against the USD in Wednesday’s session also looking like traders are waiting for Fridays key US PCE inflation reading. The highlights were: USDJPY pushed past its November 2023 high hitting 151.97 which is the highest level this pair has reached since 1990 and bringing intervention speculation to the fore once more, with some trading desks flagging the possibility of intervention during thin Easter markets. Comments from Finance Minister Suzuki who said he was closely watching FX moves and won't rule out any steps including decisive steps to respond to disorderly FX moves also stoking the intervention fire.
Gold surged higher with XAUUSD testing the previous all-time high and resistance level at 2195 USD an ounce after an earlier sell-off on a Reuters report that India is to drastically cut its gold imports in March. While the USD was flat, treasury yields did have a decent drop which supported the gold price. Today ahead in economic news, the highlights are US jobs and GDP data.
After last week’s blockbuster NFP figure FX traders have a key US CPI reading to look forward to later today. Rates markets have seen see-sawing expectations on when the Fed will start cutting rates and today’s CPI will be another big part of that puzzle. US CPI for March is expected to come in at a 0.3% increase, a slight cooling from Februarys 0.4% but still stubbornly holding the Year-on-Year rate at 3.4%, showing that not progress in the battle to bring down inflation is slow going and not over yet.
USD has been in a holding pattern during April with the US dollar Index range trading between the support at 104 and resistance at 105, the 104 support is certainly in play should a cooler than expected CPI reading come in, with the next support at the 200-day SMA at 103.81 Golds record run-up to all time highs has seen the precious metal take headlines during April. As an inflation hedge it should benefit from a hot CPI reading, but a cool reading would see yields and the USD drop which is also gold positive. It’s hard to predict how gold will react fundamentally to todays CPI, though from a chartist point of view XAUUSD is in serious overbought territory and a correction is overdue.
USD rallied in Tuesday’s session, with the US dollar Index hitting a 2024 high of 106.510 after hawkish Fed Chair Powell commentary where he noted recent data was showing a lack of further progress on inflation. Powell also added that if higher inflation persists the Fed can maintain current rate as long as needed. On data, building permits and housing starts came in beneath analyst expectations while industrial production was in line with forecasts but manufacturing output beat.
USDJPY moved higher for a 5 th straight session, with the pair closing the New York session at highs of 154.78. There was what appeared to be an intervention earlier in the US session with a steep 100 pip drop on no headlines that quickly retraced. This looked like a shot across the bow from the BoJ with market participants suspecting intervention and will likely strengthen expectations that 155.00 is the line in the sand for Japanese officials.