Notícias de mercado & insights
Mantenha-se à frente dos mercados com insights de especialistas, notícias e análise técnica para orientar suas decisões de negociação.
O anúncio do cessar-fogo de 8 de abril e as discussões paralelas em torno de uma trégua de 45 dias não resolveram a interrupção do Estreito de Ormuz. Por enquanto, eles limitaram o pior cenário possível, mas o tráfego de petroleiros permanece em uma fração dos níveis normais e a demanda do Irã por taxas de trânsito sinaliza uma mudança estrutural, não temporária.
O que começou como um conflito regional se tornou um choque energético global, e a questão para os mercados não é mais se Ormuz foi interrompida, mas como a interrupção muda permanentemente o piso de preços do petróleo.
Principais conclusões
- Cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia (bpd) de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos normalmente passam pelo Estreito de Ormuz, entre o Irã e Omã, o equivalente a cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo.
- Isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de estoque. Os mercados de petróleo dependem do rendimento contínuo, não do armazenamento estático.
- Se a interrupção persistir além de algumas semanas, o Brent poderá passar de um pico de curto prazo para um choque de preços mais amplo, com risco de estagflação.
- O tráfego de petroleiros pelo estreito caiu de cerca de 135 navios por dia para menos de 15 no pico da interrupção, uma redução de aproximadamente 85%, com mais de 150 embarcações ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas.
- Um cessar-fogo de duas semanas foi anunciado em 8 de abril, com negociações de trégua de 45 dias em andamento. O Irã sinalizou separadamente uma demanda por taxas de trânsito em embarcações que usam o estreito, o que, se formalizado, representaria um piso geopolítico permanente nos custos de energia.
- Os mercados começaram a se afastar do crescimento e da exposição à tecnologia para nomes de energia e defesa, refletindo a visão de que o petróleo elevado está se tornando um custo estrutural em vez de um prêmio de risco temporário.
O ponto de estrangulamento de petróleo mais crítico do mundo
O Estreito de Ormuz movimenta cerca de 20 milhões de barris por dia de petróleo e produtos petrolíferos, o equivalente a cerca de 20% do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo. Com a demanda global de petróleo em torno de 104 milhões de bpd e a capacidade não utilizada limitada, o mercado já estava fortemente equilibrado antes da última escalada.
O estreito também é um corredor crítico para o gás natural liquefeito. Cerca de 290 milhões de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaram pela rota todos os dias, em média, em 2024, representando cerca de 20% do comércio global de GNL, com os mercados asiáticos como principal destino.
A Agência Internacional de Energia (IEA) descreveu Ormuz como o ponto de estrangulamento do trânsito de petróleo mais importante do mundo, observando que mesmo interrupções parciais podem desencadear grandes movimentos de preços. O petróleo Brent subiu acima de USD 100 o barril, refletindo tanto a rigidez física quanto o aumento do prêmio de risco geopolítico.
Tanques ociosos enquanto os fluxos diminuem
Os dados de frete e seguro agora apontam para problemas em tempo real. Relata-se que mais de 85 grandes transportadores de petróleo bruto estão presos no Golfo Pérsico, enquanto mais de 150 navios foram ancorados, desviados ou atrasados à medida que os operadores reavaliam a segurança e a cobertura do seguro. Isso deixaria cerca de 120 milhões a 150 milhões de barris de petróleo bruto parados no mar.
Esses volumes representam apenas seis a sete dias de produção normal de Ormuz, ou pouco mais de um dia de consumo global de petróleo.
Os dados atualizados de transporte e seguro agora confirmam que mais de 150 embarcações foram ancoradas, desviadas ou atrasadas, acima das 85 relatadas inicialmente. Os 1,3 dias de cobertura do consumo global de petróleo bruto ocioso continuam sendo a restrição vinculativa: isso é um choque de fluxo, não um problema de armazenamento, e o cessar-fogo ainda não se traduziu em uma produtividade significativamente restaurada.
Um mercado baseado no fluxo, não no armazenamento
Os mercados de petróleo funcionam em movimento contínuo. Refinarias, plantas petroquímicas e cadeias de suprimentos globais são calibradas para entregas estáveis ao longo de rotas marítimas previsíveis. Quando os fluxos passam por um ponto de estrangulamento que carrega cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo e cerca de 30% do comércio marítimo global de petróleo são interrompidos, o sistema pode passar do equilíbrio ao déficit em poucos dias.
A capacidade de produção não utilizada, amplamente concentrada na OPEP, é estimada em apenas 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd. Isso fica bem aquém dos volumes em risco se os fluxos de Ormuz forem severamente interrompidos.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riscos de inflação e repercussões macro
O impacto inflacionário de um choque de petróleo normalmente chega em ondas. Preços mais altos de combustível e energia podem elevar a inflação global rapidamente, à medida que os custos de gasolina, diesel e energia aumentam.
Com o tempo, custos mais altos de energia podem passar por frete, alimentos, manufatura e serviços. Se a interrupção persistir, a combinação de inflação elevada e crescimento mais lento pode aumentar o risco de um ambiente estagflacionário e deixar os bancos centrais enfrentando uma difícil troca.
Sem compensação fácil, um sistema com pouca folga
O que torna o episódio atual particularmente agudo é a falta de folga no sistema global.
A oferta e a demanda globais de cerca de 103 milhões a 104 milhões de bpd deixam pouca reserva quando um ponto de estrangulamento que movimenta quase 20 milhões de bpd, ou cerca de um quinto do consumo global de petróleo, é comprometido. A capacidade não utilizada estimada de 3 milhões a 5 milhões de bpd, principalmente dentro da OPEP, cobriria apenas uma fração dos volumes em risco.
Rotas alternativas, incluindo oleodutos que contornam Ormuz e reencaminhamentos marítimos, só podem compensar parcialmente os fluxos perdidos e, geralmente, com custos mais altos e prazos de entrega mais longos.
Conclusão
Até que o trânsito pelo Estreito de Ormuz seja restaurado e visto como confiavelmente seguro, é provável que os fluxos globais de petróleo permaneçam prejudicados e os prêmios de risco elevados. Para investidores, formuladores de políticas e tomadores de decisão corporativos, a questão central é se o petróleo pode se mover para onde precisa ir, todos os dias, sem interrupção.
Free-falling gold prices The latest weekly chart for gold does not look favourable for the precious metal. Below we can see that in twelve of the past sixteen weeks, gold prices have ended down and is one of the worst runs for the metal in decades. What is surprising is that the demand for gold continues to fall despite an increasingly volatile geopolitical situation unfolding between the US and China.
If anything, the US Dollar appears to be getting stronger as tensions grow, and as a result gold is feeling the pinch. Given the circumstances, we would expect the opposite for XAUUSD. So what are the possible causes for the loss of interest in this market?
In short, we have so many elements at play here that it would be difficult to pinpoint any one reason. However, as follows, there are a few standout factors which deserve mentioning. Overall Demand According to the World Gold Council, we saw a total demand of 1,959 tonnes during the first half of the year.
This amount is the lowest level since 2009, and a further 2,086 tonnes less than the previous year. Rates Hikes Let's also not forget that the Federal Reserve has lifted interest rates twice this year, and plans further additional raises towards the end of the year. This news alone would typically put pressure on gold and silver prices.
It does pose an interesting question though; what if the two remaining rate hikes predicted for 2018 is already fully priced into the market? Given the media hype surrounding the policy decisions, it would make sense that many have considered this aspect before the recent drop. In short, there isn't much scope for a surprise, so it becomes hard to rationalise this latest activity based on this evidence alone.
Investor Sentiment Another factor could be the onwards and upwards march of US equities. Market sentiment currently favours the equities asset class which makes it a more appealing place to invest capital than metals. This mostly risk-on sentiment keeps driving US stocks higher, despite Washington's woes elsewhere around the globe.
So, with the focus squarely on equities, it's perhaps not a great shock that gold is suffering, as investors will generally flock to the highest yields. Unfortunately, gold as a non-interest bearing asset will always come off second best in this scenario. Of course, we also have gold stocks, or more commonly, gold ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds) which are increasingly becoming the popular method of gaining exposure to the metal.
Although, these types of investments appear to have only made things worse as US investors have started shuffling gold ETF funds into other sectors. Perhaps the biggest clue is that ETF's purchased only 60.9m tonnes of gold in the past six months, versus 160.9 tonnes during the same time last year. Technicals As shown on the previous weekly chart, the technicals are noticeably bearish longer-term.
Gold prices are grinding lower to the psychological support level of $1,200 per ounce. Sticking with the longer-term view, if we study the Ichimoku monthly chart above, you'll notice that the $1200 level coincides with the bottom of the cloud formation. I see this going either one or two ways; perhaps we will see the price rebound off this mark and attempt another move towards the $1300 region, or, the slide will turn into an avalanche as the price gravitates towards the $1122.51 lows that were seen in December 2016.
Should we see a close below $1200, I suspect this level will turn to an area of resistance and stifle movement in the short-medium term. As long as the US Dollar holds its ground and investors continue to cherish equities over other asset classes, we will likely see further pressure on gold, silver and commodity trading markets as a whole. By Adam Taylor CFTe This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: World Gold Council (gold.org), Tradingview, Bloomberg
An Update on Brexit The dust has finally settled after the UK Snap elections and now the United Kingdom can turn their heads to discussions with the European Union about how and on what terms they will leave the Union. The Brexit negotiations officially began on 19 th June in Brussels, the opening day mainly consisted of the timing and structure of the negotiations with actual trade talks expected to begin on 24 th July. One of the main issues that both parties want to get resolved as soon as possible is the status of EU nationals in the UK and the UK citizens living within the European Union.
On 26 th June, Theresa May set out her plans for the EU citizens living in the United Kingdom, advising she wants the EU nationals to stay in the UK. Mrs May outlined that all EU citizens living in the UK before it leaves the EU will be able to apply for a ‘settled status’ but only if the UK citizens will get the same deal within the EU and with the actual trade talks beginning towards the end of July, we should soon see what the details of the Brexit divorce will look like. Financial Markets The Pound When the UK Election results came in, we saw the Pound weakening against the US Dollar as it emerged that Theresa May did not win the majority which meant more uncertainty for Britain going into the Brexit negotiations.
Since then, the Pound has strengthened against the US Dollar, but with the beginning of Brexit talks we can expect some movements in the financial markets in the coming months. Source: GO Markets MT4 FTSE100 We saw the FTSE100 reach record highs at the beginning of June, however since then there has been slight decline in the Index. Source: GO Markets MT4 Economy A lot of people expected the UK economy to slow down drastically after the Brexit vote but instead we saw a steady growth in the months after the result was announced.
The latest economic figures show that UK economy was the worst performer in European Union with economic growth of just 0.2% in the first three months of 2017 with Romania, Latvia and Slovenia with the strongest expansion with 1.7%, 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. However, in terms of year-on-year the UK is still closer to the EU performance and ahead of 19-nation eurozone (EU countries with Euro as their currency). Source: Office for National Statistics Brexit timeline June 2017 saw the start of what looks to be a two year journey which culminates in The United Kingdom leaving the EU.
Source: http://www.parliament.uk/ By: Klavs Valters GO Markets GO Markets may recommend use of software, information, products, or web sites that are owned or operated by other companies (“third-party resources”). We offer or facilitate this recommendation by hyperlinks or other methods to aid your access to the third-party resource. While we endeavor to direct you to helpful, trustworthy resources, we cannot endorse, approve, or guarantee software, information, products, or services provided by or at a third-party resource.
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All eyes will be on the Jackson Hole in Wyoming this week, where the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will be held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. This years symposium will take place from 23rd until the 25th of August and the topic for the upcoming event will be “Changing Market Structure and Implications for Monetary Policy”. About Jackson Hole Economic Symposium The key feature of the meeting is the discussion that takes place between the participants.
Because of the high-profile participants and the topics that are discussed in the event, there is a considerable interest in the symposium, however, to help foster the open discussion that is critical to the event, the attendance is very limited. The event receives a large number of requests from media agencies worldwide, however, the press presence is also limited to a group that is selected to provide transparency to the symposium. Importance of the event The symposium is closely followed by financial markets participants around the world and over the past decade it has attracted more attention, this is mainly because what has happened in the past.
Some of the biggest monetary policies were initially revealed at the event, although they were not formally announced. During the event, any unexpected comment from any participants can influence the global financial markets. Here are some notable moments from the Jackson Hole Symposium: 2005 – Raghuram Rajan (then the professor at the University of Chicago and former governor of Reserve Bank of India) warned about risks that the financial system had absorbed throughout the years.
Three years later, the US subprime mortgage crisis erupted into the global financial crisis. 2012 – Michael Woodford (macroeconomist and monetary theorist, Columbia University) presented where he said that Fed’s stance on keeping its main interest rate near zero until a certain time would reflect pessimism about the speed of the economy’s recovery. Later that year, the Fed announced it would keep rates near zero until unemployment fell to 6.50% and inflation did not climb above 2.50%. 2014 – Mario Draghi (ECB president) hinted that the ECB was edging closer to embarking on its QE path. During the event, Mario Draghi said that ECB could use ‘all the available instruments’.
His announcement came just two months after ECB introduced negative deposit rates in the Eurozone, the financial markets rallied during his speech at the Jackson Hole. The symposium is a must watch financial market event and it is worth keeping an eye on the discussions and speeches during the event as we may see statements from some of the most influential people from around the world. This year, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will headline the event in Jackson Hole with a speech about monetary policy in a changing economy, according to the Fed Board so it’s time to mark your calendars!
Klāvs Valters Market Analyst
The annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has been held since 1978. From 1978-1981 it was held at different locations but since 1981 it has been held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and this year is no exception. From 24 th – 26 th August 2017, the most influential central bankers, finance ministers, academics and other financial participants from around the world will meet again to discuss the issues facing economies around the globe.
About the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium The key feature of the meeting is discussion that takes place between the participants. Because of the high-profile participants and the topics that are discussed in the event, there is a considerable interest in the symposium, however, to help foster the open discussion that is critical to the event, the attendance is very limited. The topic for the upcoming meeting is "Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy".
The event receives a large number of requests from media agencies worldwide, however, the press presence is also limited to a group that is selected to provide transparency to the symposium. Importance of the event The symposium is closely followed by financial markets participants around the world and over the past decade it has attracted more attention, this is mainly because what has happened in the past. Some of the biggest monetary policies were initially revealed at the event, although they were not formally announced.
During the event, any unexpected comment from any participants can influence the global financial markets. Here are some notable moments from Jackson Hole Symposium: 2005 – Raghuram Rajan (then professor at the University of Chicago and former governor of Reserve Bank of India) warned about risks that the financial system had absorbed throughout the years. Three years later, the US subprime mortgage crisis erupted into global financial crisis. 2012 – Michael Woodford (macroeconomist and monetary theorist, Columbia University) presented where he said that Fed’s stance on keeping its main interest rate near zero until a certain time would reflect pessimism about the speed of the economy’s recovery.
Later that year, the Fed announced it would keep rates near zero until unemployment fell to 6.50% and inflation did not climb above 2.50%. 2014 – Mario Draghi (ECB president) hinted that the ECB was edging closer to embarking on its QE path. During the event, Mario Draghi said that ECB could use ‘all the available instruments’. His announcement came just two months after ECB introduced negative deposit rates in the Eurozone, the financial markets rallied during his speech at the Jackson Hole.
The symposium is a must watch financial market event and it is worth keeping an eye on the discussions and speeches during the event as we may see statements from some of the most influential people from around the world, including FED’s Janet Yellen and ECB’s Mario Draghi, to name a few which could create some volatility in the markets. By: Klavs Valters GO Markets
Upcoming News » 10:30pm GDP - CAD » 10:30pm Advance GDP - USD » Sat 6:00am EBA Bank Stress Test Results - EUR, USD, JPY The JPY saw a wild trading session today as the BOJ boosts dollar lending and ETF purchases. Interest rates to be kept steady at this point. We found out on Wednesday the amount of the stimulus package.
This weekend we have the EBA stress test results, while today was important this could be critical. News has been emerging of the unserviceable debt the Italian Banks are holding. If we have very bad news emerging from these tests it could put real pressure on the European Union.
Some have spoken of a second financial crisis in the EU, lead by the collapse of the Italian banks. I hope we see levels not outside what’s known about currently. If there are very negative results released on Saturday we could see the USD open a lot stronger on Monday.
We had a wild Asian session today on the JPY with the JPN225 and JPY pairs all making strong moves. Today was a classic stay out and watch day. We had strong moves down but the counter rallies were deep.
The USDJPY had a 256 pip range. The JPN255 reached 16732 before dropping down to 16025 45 minutes later. Gold fell $9 and recovered back to a high of 1343 all in 30 minutes of trade.
The AUD, GBP,and EUR had smoother starts to the day all making ground on the USD. The AUS200 has pared early losses to be trading positively at 5575. I’m seeing 5585 as current resistance for the AUS200.
US30 is showing short-term support at 18385. JPN225 – You can see how strong the moves where today off the 15 min chart. Breakout type trades today could have been disastrous.
Two classic bull traps at the top of the range. The two largest moves all happened in under 30 minutes. We did have a nice bounce off the bottom of the range that produced a smooth rally.
I hope seeing this chart takes away the idea of trading events like today. While there was a lot of movement, catching it is the hard part and could have resulted in some good trades but possibly a lot of damage. AUDUSD – We had a very nice rally to start the Asian session.
Once.7544 was touched we have seen a turn..7500 is showing possible support on the 4H chart. This will need to be confirmed. The USD has started to show some strength early in the European session.
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The newly-elected populist government in Italy will deliver its very first budget which will be pivotal to the Eurozone area. Italy has the second largest public government debt pile in Europe after the Greeks. The debt to equity ratio in Italy currently stands at 131.81% of its GDP, and market participants are questioning whether Italy will be able to repay its debt.
Debt to GDP ratio (%) [gallery size="large" ids=""] Why is the Italian budget a key event for the markets? The Italian Budget is crucial because it poses a potential threat to the stability of the bloc and the Euro. The Budget will dictate whether the new government will follow the European Union’s rules but most importantly, it will help to gauge whether the coalition parties are getting along well.
The Italian economy might not be able to support a massive spending bill. Investors will be most concerned about the fiscal roadmap of the country. The Five Star and the League have ambitious tax and spending plans which are the foundations of their respective party.
They have vowed to spend more, and for the coalition to work, the spending plans of both parties will have to be considered. The critical question that arises is: “Will the Budget blow the EU’s 3% deficit level?” Being one of the weakest links of the Eurozone, markets participants are wary of the possibility of a debt crisis. The EU has a ceiling level of 3% concerning a budget deficit, and investors are increasingly alarmed at the prospect that Italy might breach this limit.
The Budget will likely be focal in gauging its fiscal discipline. The budget proposals by the new Italian government has also placed Italy on the negative watch for Moody’s rating back in May. The evaluation has been postponed until further information on the budget is revealed.
The markets could see fresh turmoil if credit rating agencies flashed an adverse outlook on what the government is doing. According to the Minister of Finance, the Budget deal will be published in September, and we expect it to bring some volatility in the EUR pairs. Currently, the EURUSD is relieved from its selling pressure on the back on the US dollar weakness.
It is very probable that any noises about the Budget will cap any gains if there are rising fears that it will breach the EU Budget rules. Alongside any developments in the Italian Budget, EUR bulls might want to keep an eye on the Italian bond yields for fresh impetus!!