Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
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El anuncio del alto el fuego del 8 de abril y las discusiones paralelas en torno a una tregua de 45 días no han resuelto la interrupción del Estrecho de Ormuz. Por ahora, han puesto un tope al peor escenario posible, pero el tráfico de petroleros se mantiene en una fracción de los niveles normales y la demanda iraní de tarifas de tránsito señala un cambio estructural, no temporal.
Lo que comenzó como un conflicto regional se ha convertido en un shock energético global, y la pregunta para los mercados ya no es si Ormuz fue interrumpido, sino cómo permanentemente la interrupción cambia el piso de precios para el petróleo.
Puntos clave
- Alrededor de 20 millones de barriles por día (bpd) de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo normalmente pasan por el Estrecho de Ormuz entre Irán y Omán, lo que equivale a aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y aproximadamente el 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo.
- Esto es un choque de flujo, no un problema de inventario. Los mercados petroleros dependen del rendimiento continuo, no del almacenamiento de información estático.
- Si la interrupción persiste más allá de unas pocas semanas, el Brent podría pasar de un pico a corto plazo a un shock de precios más amplio, con riesgo de estanflación.
- El tráfico de petroleros a través del estrecho cayó de alrededor de 135 barcos por día a menos de 15 en el pico de interrupción, una reducción de aproximadamente 85%, con más de 150 embarcaciones ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas.
- El 8 de abril se anunció un alto el fuego de dos semanas, con negociaciones de tregua de 45 días en curso. Irán ha señalado por separado una demanda de tarifas de tránsito para los buques que utilizan el estrecho, lo que, de formalizar, representaría un piso geopolítico permanente en los costos de energía.
- Los mercados han comenzado a alejarse del crecimiento y la exposición tecnológica hacia los nombres de energía y defensa, lo que refleja la opinión de que el petróleo elevado se está convirtiendo en un costo estructural en lugar de una prima de riesgo temporal.
El punto de choque petrolero más crítico del mundo
El Estrecho de Ormuz maneja aproximadamente 20 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo y productos derivados del petróleo, lo que equivale a alrededor del 20% del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo. Con la demanda mundial de petróleo cercana a los 104 millones de bpd y la capacidad sobrante limitada, el mercado ya estaba fuertemente equilibrado antes de la última escalada.
El estrecho también es un corredor crítico para el gas natural licuado. Alrededor de 290 millones de metros cúbicos de GNL transitaron por la ruta cada día en promedio en 2024, lo que representa aproximadamente el 20% del comercio mundial de GNL, siendo los mercados asiáticos el principal destino.
La Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) ha descrito a Ormuz como el punto de choque del tránsito petrolero más importante del mundo, señalando que incluso las interrupciones parciales pueden desencadenar movimientos desmedidos de precios. El crudo Brent se ha movido por encima de los 100 dólares el barril, lo que refleja tanto la estanqueidad física como una prima de riesgo geopolítico al alza.
Tanques inactivos a medida que los flujos son lentos
Los datos de envío y seguros ahora apuntan a tensión en tiempo real. Se informa que más de 85 grandes transportistas de crudo están varados en el Golfo Pérsico, mientras que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas a medida que los operadores reevalúan la cobertura de seguridad y seguros. Eso dejaría un estimado de 120 millones a 150 millones de barriles de crudo inactivos en el mar.
Esos volúmenes representan solo de seis a siete días de rendimiento normal de Hormuz, o un poco más de un día de consumo mundial de petróleo.
Los datos actualizados de envío y seguros confirman ahora que más de 150 embarcaciones han sido ancladas, desviadas o retrasadas, por encima de las 85 reportadas inicialmente. Los 1.3 días de cobertura de consumo mundial del crudo inactivo siguen siendo la limitación vinculante: se trata de un shock de flujo, no un problema de almacenamiento, y el alto el fuego aún no se ha traducido en un rendimiento restaurado de manera significativa.
Un mercado basado en el flujo, no en el almacenamiento de información
Los mercados petroleros funcionan en movimiento continuo. Las refinerías, las plantas petroquímicas y las cadenas de suministro mundiales están calibradas para lograr entregas estables a lo largo de rutas marítimas predecibles. Cuando los flujos a través de un punto de choque que lleva aproximadamente una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo y alrededor del 30% del comercio mundial de petróleo marítimo se interrumpen, el sistema puede pasar del equilibrio al déficit en cuestión de días.
La capacidad de producción sobrante, concentrada en gran medida dentro de la OPEP, se estima en sólo 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd. Eso queda muy por debajo de los volúmenes en riesgo si los flujos de Ormuz se ven gravemente perturbados.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Riesgos de inflación y macroderrames
El impacto inflacionario de un choque petrolero suele llegar en oleadas. Los precios más altos del combustible y la energía pueden elevar rápidamente la inflación general a medida que los costos de gasolina, diésel y energía se muevan al alza.
Con el tiempo, los mayores costos de energía pueden pasar por fletes, alimentos, manufactura y servicios. Si la perturbación persiste, la combinación de una inflación elevada y un crecimiento más lento podría elevar el riesgo de un entorno estanflacionario y dejar a los bancos centrales enfrentando una difícil compensación.
Sin compensación fácil, un sistema con poca holgura
Lo que hace que el episodio actual sea particularmente agudo es la falta de holgura en el sistema global.
La oferta y la demanda mundiales cerca de 103 millones a 104 millones de bpd dejan poco colchón de sobra cuando un punto de choque que maneja casi 20 millones de bpd, o cerca de una quinta parte del consumo mundial de petróleo, se ve comprometido. La capacidad sobrante estimada de 3 millones a 5 millones de bpd, en su mayoría dentro de la OPEP, cubriría sólo una fracción de los volúmenes en riesgo.
Las rutas alternativas, incluidas las tuberías que eluden Ormuz y el envío reencaminado, solo pueden compensar parcialmente los flujos perdidos, y generalmente a un costo más alto y con plazos de entrega más largos.
Conclusión
Hasta que se restablezca el tránsito por el Estrecho de Ormuz y se vea como creíblemente seguro, es probable que los flujos mundiales de petróleo sigan deteriorados y las primas de riesgo sean elevadas. Para los inversionistas, los formuladores de políticas y los tomadores de decisiones corporativas, la pregunta central es si el petróleo puede moverse hacia donde necesita ir, todos los días, sin interrupción.
US and European equity markets remained volatile as fighting between Russian and Ukraine forces continued and negotiation talks failed to result in any progress. Both parties however have committed to another round of discussions. The VIX, Wall Street’s volatility measure surged 12% to 30 indicating the increased fear investors are feeling from the ongoing situation.
The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 both closed down 0.5% and 0.25% respectively, the Nasdaq finished up 0.4% as tech and growth stocks outperformed. In Europe, the FTSE finished down 0.4% and the DAX 0.7%. Not surprisingly, with SWIFT bans and other banking sanctions levied against Russia, the financial sector was the poorest performer overnight in the USA.
Brent Crude oil has ticked back over to $101.10USD as a consequence of the conflict and is still expected to rise further. An OPEC meeting is scheduled for tomorrow however there is no expectation of a significant change. Gold hasn’t seen much change and is still hovering around $1,908USD.
The price has remained stable after bouncing from its recent highs. The RBA is meeting today at 2.30 pm to discuss interest rates and their outlook of the Australian economy, however, no change is expected as they deal with the current sentiment relating to the Russia and Ukraine crisis. Inflation is still the key concern, though a mild Wage Price Index figure last week has given the RBA some room to continue the mostly dovish tone seen at recent meetings.
Above expected retail figures came out yesterday increasing 1.8% and beating most expectations. The USA federal reserve is also indicating that it may be more cautious in tackling inflation through interest rates although they are still expected to increase rates in March with a 25 bp rate rise fully priced in by the market. On the back of the retail figures and improving risk sentiment, the AUD/USD was up 1.46% from the session lows and could be one to watch for the day.
The EUR/JPY was down 1.3% indicating a move out of the Euro to safe haven currencies on the back of the continuing conflict. In cryptos, Bitcoin was a standout pushing up 11.18% to be trading at 41,933.30USD as of 9.00 pm GMT. This jump in price and increase in volume is likely due to many users in Russia moving to attentive payment as the Ruble continues to dive.
The US stock market saw one of its best days in months, as speculation swirled that the 'bottom' may be in. The indices gained their momentum from better-than-expected earnings and a weakening of the USD, with the USDX dropping to $106.58. With more earnings still to come better than expected results may see the S&P500 and markets break out of their current downtrend.
The Nasdaq ended the trading session up 3.38%, the Dow Jones rose 2.43% and the S&P500 moved 2.78% higher. This should lead to a positive start on the ASX with the XJO futures up 83.2 points or 1.25% at 9:01, Australian Eastern Standard time. The commodity markets saw a solid rebound with Gold and Oil both pushing back from recent losses.
Brent is now back over $100.00 a barrel whilst Gold is hovering above $1700. The news in the foreign exchange market was the drop in the USD, which also saw strength coming into the AUD. The AUDUSD was able to test its recent resistance point at $0.6860 and is now testing the $0.6900 level.
The EUR moved similarly to the AUD also moving up against the USD. There is growing sentiment that ECB members could discuss a 25 or 50 basis point hike at their upcoming meeting. Furthermore, the EU has indicated it will soften sanctions on Russia, and Russian gas giant Gazprom will resume its gas provision to the EU on July 21.
Later today, the market can expect updates from the Reserve Bank of Australia as Governor Lowe speaks and UK CPI figures for the year will be announced as well. Cryptocurrencies saw a nice breakout with the Bitcoin pushing above 24,000 USD as the market pushed the money back into risk assets. The cryptocurrency broke out of a month-long consolidation in a show of strength.
Ethereum followed suit rising almost 6%.
US markets continued their gains overnight as the market continued to rally on the back of the prior day’s Federal Reserve news. The Nasdaq finished up 1.33%. The Dow Jones Index closed 1.23% higher and the S&P 500 ended the session 1.23% higher as well.
In Europe, the FTSE performed well finishing up and 1.28%, and the DAX closed at 0.36% lower than the prior day although it did bounce off the lows of the day to finish mostly flat. Commodities Brent and WTI oil both made significant gains, up 10% on the back of the market losing hope that Russia and Ukraine will end the conflict from the most recent talks. Consequently, sanctions will continue driving up the demand for commodities rose again.
Gold saw a smaller move to the upside rising by 0.78% to 1938 USD. The gold price has continued its bounce off the support level at 1893 USD per ounce. Natural gas also had a strong night as it continues to coil and rise to move 3.68% higher.
Cryptocurrencies had a genera lly flat day. BTC/USD dipped 0.53% but continues to hold in a tight range. Ethereum was up 1.35% as it also continues to consolidate.
FOREX The Bank of England raised their interest rates in line with the Federal reserve 25 basis points to a current rate of 0.75% and saw a volatile day of trading. The GBP/USD initially sold down likely because just one member of the panel had voted for a 50-point hike. The pair ended up closing flat for the day after recovering from the initial sell down.
The AUD has continued to perform well against the USD. The AUD/USD was able to confirm the breakout of its channel, rising 1.21%.
Australian lithium company, Liontown Resources, has secured another offtake agreement for its Kathleen Lithium project. The agreement with global car manufacturer Ford, means that it will now be the third offtake partner as part of the foundational financing for the development of the Project. Lithium is key for the batteries in electric vehicles in order to allow the vehicles to store electrical energy.
The agreement specifies that LTR will supply Ford with up to 150,000 dry metric tonnes, (DMT) per annum of spodumene concentrate. For the first year, they will provide 75,000 DMT, 125,000 DMT in year 2, and then 150,000 DMT for the remaining 3 years of the initial term of the agreement. Lisa Drake, Ford Vice President of EV industrialisation stated, “Ford continues working to source more deeply into the battery supply chain to meet our goals of delivering more than 2 million EV’s annually for our customers by 2026.” This makes up a third of the foundational offtakes for the Kathleen Project with Tesla and LG also committing to offtake agreements with the company.
The current Kathleen project will be able to produce approximately 500,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate per annum before expanding to approximately 700,000 tonnes once production starts. The financing of the development will be supported by an agreement in which, Ford will supply $300,000,000 AUD. This combined with $463,000,000 AUD raised by LTR last year should cover the development of the project until production.
The LTR share price was up by 5.4% to $1.12 as of 11.41 EST 29 June 2022 as the market reacted to the news.
Two junior lithium companies, Core Lithium, (CXO) and Lake Resources, (LKE) have seen aggressive sell offs after motoric rises in the last few years. The Backstory Lithium stocks companies had seen a momentous rise in the past 3 years largely on the back of the push towards renewable energy and electric vehicles which require lithium for their batteries. Core Lithium (CXO) and Lake Resources, (LKE) have been two companies who have benefited a great deal from the rise in interest and price of lithium.
Both companies became so large that on the 20 th June 2022 they were both added to the ASX200 Index or XJO. This was a key milestone as it meant that large funds and ETF’s were required to buy shares of the companies. This created an almost artificial surge in demand as pools of money were flowing into these companies.
Leading up to the sell off Prior to the addition into the XJO, many lithium stocks had suffered through a bloodbath type of sell off. The selloff was caused by rising inflation and interest rate levels disproportionately affecting growth companies which many lithium companies are and also an over extended bull market that was in need of a pullback. As the price of many of these companies began to see their share prices drop such as Tesla and Allkem, LKE and CXO remained relatively strong.
Once again much of this strength was due to institutions and funds holding the price up due to the rebalancing. The sell off Once the rebalancing occurred on 20 June 2022 the buying pressure subsided and the selling took over in a fairly violent manner. LKE in particular saw a massive drop.
Furthermore, the selloff was exacerbated by CEO, Stephen Promnitz, quitting on the same day for no apparent reason. The relative selling volumes of LKE shares were drastically higher than prior periods of trading. The price is now holding just above its support at $0.70 after falling almost 75% from its peak in April 2022.
With the market capitalisation now under 1 billion dollars, what happens next for the company will be intriguing. After such a large capitulation can the share price have a strong bounce, or does it have further to go? The CXO share price has seen a less aggressive dump.
Whilst it was not struck with the same bad news as LKE was with regards to its lead, it still saw a massive sell off although with the volume of selling not at the same level as LKE. The price is just holding above its 200 day moving average and has pulled back just over 51.33% from its peak in April 2022. The next week or so of price action may provide a great deal of insight into where the share price will go next.
With inflationary pressure set to continue and growth companies baring the brunt of the sell off the short term future of both these companies is murky at best.
The operator of KFC and Taco Bell restaurants across Australia, Europe and South East Asia Collins Foods Limited, (CKF) saw its share price shoot up by above 11% on Tuesday after releasing its annual report. The company saw its revenue increase to 1,184,521,000 and increased its profit by an impressive 47%. The company also saw a decrease in its net debt and net leverage ratio, as improved cashflow saw the business become more solvent.
CKF saw particularly good growth in its European sector where it saw revenue increase from $134.9 million to $190.4 million year on year. With inflation being a key concern for most businesses in the short/medium term future, CKF outlined how it will deal with rising costs. The company will focus on providing better value than competitors.
It has also already locked in prices for chickens until the end of 2022 and 95% of its inputs are sourced locally, minimising supply chain pressures and costs. CKF managing Director, Drew O’Malley stated that, “KFC Australia managed to deliver positive same store sales growth for the full year, despite cycling unprecedented growth in the prior year. The KFC brand has never been stronger in Australia, and metrics around quality, value and purchase intent are at record level, particularly important in times like these.
Looking forward the company has already seen positive results since the report was finalised. O’Malley outlined that the proven track record of the brands and their customer appeal ensures that CKF is well positioned to manage the challenging economic conditions. From a technical perspective on the day the annual report came out, the share price gapped up above the 50 day moving average on a high level of volume.
The price has so far been unable to make a large move higher as it consolidates through a relatively strong resistance zone. If the price can break out of the resistance zone a target or $11.04 or a secondary target of $12.84 may be practical targets to aim for.